ACUS11 KWNS 022038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022038=20
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-022245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1444
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Areas affected...Middle Tennessee into northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438...

Valid 022038Z - 022245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438 continues until 8 PM CDT.
Storms in the watch area will be capable of damaging wind gusts of
55-70 MPH.

DISCUSSION...As expected given the lack of upper-level flow,
thunderstorms across Middle Tennessee and northern Alabama have been
largely disorganized. However, given steep lapse rates, modest
precipitable water content, and tall mixed-layer LCL heights near 2
km, wet microburst activity is possible with the strongest downdraft
cores. These microbursts could be capable of damaging winds of 55-70
MPH. Since there is little in the way of convective organization,
the expectation is that convective activity will diminish after
sunset with the reduction in surface heating.

..Halbert.. 07/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_SVnkiNLVZ5wbWDMiYVVe3gf94FHTmcs2OQ1HfeOZjfpqhJ6u0tPsSUQ6wF9iW_wTDSrbYow5= EaFvqLYrFzzwtg1Edo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 36718890 36748797 36768688 36698641 36428619 35808599
35198578 34668561 34398552 34248570 34198624 34188675
34148717 34198762 34268801 34498828 35188851 35918868
36488888 36718890=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)