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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1447

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 2 21:36:05 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 022135
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022135=20
    SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-022330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1447
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0435 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

    Areas affected...Western South Dakota...Far Southeast Montana...Far
    Northeast Wyoming

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 022135Z - 022330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe threat, with a potential for severe wind gusts
    and isolated large hail, is expected to develop across parts of
    western South Dakota over the next couple of hours. The threat could
    extend westward into far southeast Montana and far northeast
    Wyoming. Weather watch issuance appears likely.

    DISCUSSION...A small cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is
    currently located near Belle Fourche, South Dakota, just to the
    north of the Black Hills. The storms are developing to the northeast
    of a surface low, along an axis of maximized low-level convergence.
    The latest RAP has a corridor of moderate to strong instability
    across central and northwestern South Dakota, where MLCAPE is in the
    2000 to 3000 J/kg range. The storms are moving eastward along the
    southwestern edge of the stronger instability, and appears to be
    supported by a subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor
    imagery. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Rapid City has 0-6 km shear
    around 30 knots suggesting that the storms should remain organized
    enough for a severe threat to continue. The storms are expected to
    move eastward into the stronger instability and should be associated
    with a potential for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail.
    Additional storms could develop further west into far southeast
    Montana and far northeast Wyoming, if the cells there can intensify
    over the next couple of hours.

    ..Broyles/Guyer.. 07/02/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8g430gGBYTygpPsscZpyz3KByKeoNTqq_Y-T4ILOBb3b9kp-3StkUHh4zbF7YfDP3o0rcVLmB= 7arTktN3Ap1TrF9CYI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...BYZ...

    LAT...LON 43790341 44080454 44350522 44620563 44950574 45240567
    45520529 45660472 45670387 45660216 45450158 45110138
    44640119 44090116 43800145 43670193 43690280 43790341=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)