ACUS11 KWNS 022206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022205=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-030000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1448
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0505 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Areas affected...Northern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 022205Z - 030000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for strong to severe downburst winds may
increase over the next couple of hours if storm clustering can
occur. While confidence is limited, watch issuance may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Over the past half hour, GOES imagery has depicted an
uptick in cumulus depth and intensity of ongoing convection across
northern GA and adjacent portions of NC and SC. Some of this
activity appears to be driven by residual outflow from prior
convection, hinting that low-level forcing for ascent may be
sufficient for further intensification as storms move further into
northern GA. Here, temperatures have warmed into the mid/upper 90s
with dewpoint depressions generally around 20-25 F and low-level
lapse rates between 8 to 8.5 C/km. This environment is very
favorable for intense downbursts capable of producing strong/severe
wind gusts. The potential for such winds may increase as storms
continue to propagate west/southwest into this environment. The wind
threat may become somewhat more widespread if clustering can occur,
which may necessitate watch issuance. However, given the relatively
late onset of deeper convection in the diurnal heating cycle, it
remains somewhat unclear how prolonged/prolific the wind threat will
be. Nonetheless, trends will continue to be monitored.

..Moore/Guyer.. 07/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7UauDm-qzQU2mLSfN6ioJR17KzVV-_0_uVfsyH-xB7dfVw8uZxwZcVRFkYiZWq9ifobapfZuk= gjblov-vYq7dEbIdak$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON 34818294 34498254 34248228 34078223 33888230 33678265
33528296 33478325 33438374 33438424 33538466 33668497
33848521 34088532 34368542 34708545 34918543 35068526
35148496 35168383 35148348 34998320 34818294=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)