ACUS11 KWNS 022211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022210=20
WIZ000-ILZ000-030015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1449
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Areas affected...Southern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440...

Valid 022210Z - 030015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for severe wind gusts should increase across
southern Wisconsin over the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...The development of a consolidated cold pool has become
evident in velocity data from KARX and KMKX over the past hour. This
appears to confirm the expected mode transition from broken cells to
a more cohesive convective band/MCS. Downstream, the environment
across southern WI is favorable for MCS maintenance with a pocket of
2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 30 knots of effective bulk shear in
place per recent mesoanalyses and regional VWPs. Based on this
parameter space, maximum wind speeds within the MCS may be as high
as 65-75 mph (a recent 62 mph gust was noted at KLNR with the
passage of the line). This threat appears most likely to manifest
roughly along and just south of the I-94 corridor. 20 knot 0-3 km
bulk shear vectors noted in regional VWPs are oriented roughly
orthogonal to the developing line, which may support some brief
circulations as well.

..Moore.. 07/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4GZi0hSEJpvFBPijEVvSGi1Yhjd_UGhgbC1TSKHC6RUmzUKYg0gqMcYoLK1u4hs4HRvItY5OZ= UWw3eFOnK6ssV10F-I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON 42589046 42789006 43078982 43318964 43478956 43558938
43608772 43228779 43008782 42828774 42648772 42538775
42498781 42489011 42509027 42589046=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)