ACUS11 KWNS 022220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022219=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-022245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1450
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0519 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern South Dakota into extreme
southwestern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439...

Valid 022219Z - 022245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe wind swath is underway with a compact MCS. Severe
gusts up to 90 mph may occur over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Initial supercells have grown upscale into a compact
but intense cold-pool-driven MCS across eastern SD, with a recent
history of gusts up to 90 mph reported. KFSD inbound velocity data
shows a pronounced rear-inflow jet associated with this MCS, which
is contributing to the MCS wind swath intensity. The MCS continues
to traverse a diffuse outflow boundary, amid 3500 J/kg MLCAPE and 35
kts of effective bulk shear oriented normal to the MCS line (per 22Z mesoanalysis). The current thinking is that this MCS will maintain
its current intensity for the next hour or so, with severe gusts
likely. A couple of these gusts could reach 90 mph.

..Squitieri.. 07/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5T9MivLu73RItmOV35t_dhAuW0spUU0oiJGDOCQRV-NYgmlsDtamGeKTEgnVNE2Ncbs-w-Xg7= Vr6uhCH8gKqMCniq28$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 44589866 44719752 44639660 44419617 44079603 43879634
43719692 43659762 43679831 44589866=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)