ACUS11 KWNS 022253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022252=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-030015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1452
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0552 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Areas affected...Southwest Minnesota...northwest Iowa...and far
northeast Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 022252Z - 030015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms ongoing in South Dakota will likely
spread east into central and southern Minnesota, and possibly far
northern Iowa and far northeast Nebraska, in the next few hours.
Watch issuance is expected soon.

DISCUSSION...A band severe thunderstorms ongoing across eastern SD
has a history of producing several severe wind gusts, including a
gust to 90 mph. Southward development of this line is also noted in
recent radar trends. Downstream, some lingering inhibition is noted
across southern MN, and MLCAPE generally decreases with eastward
extent. However, the presence of a well-established cold pool within
the MCS and 35-40 knots of effective shear will likely compensate
for the modest thermodynamic environment and support the potential
for further strong/severe storms downstream through the evening
hours. Watch issuance is expected soon to address this concern.

..Moore/Guyer.. 07/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-anLJiLixCzYmcLE9LERbfzpPaIrwvmxzzy6ZIg8JvDnxyr6ns6updSDhfnuTVYFfavfGSqR6= 1ZPbppdtsKmyreUz_I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...

LAT...LON 45429655 45659658 45779626 45869553 45719481 45189412
44639387 43879405 43259432 42679473 42329518 42129636
42129708 42379743 42669759 42909751 43239684 43509647
43529646 44459642 45129643 45429655=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)