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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1453

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 2 23:08:34 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 022308
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022307=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-030130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1453
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0607 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

    Areas affected...Northern South Dakota...Southern and Western North
    Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 022307Z - 030130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may develop over parts of
    northern South Dakota and southern North Dakota over the next few
    hours. A weather watch extension in area may be needed across parts
    of northern South Dakota, or a new watch could need to be
    considered.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis show an axis of low-level
    moisture extending from central South Dakota into central and
    western North Dakota, where dewpoints are mostly in the lower to mid
    60s F. Along that corridor, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000
    J/kg range. Thunderstorms have recently intensified in northwestern
    South Dakota just to the west of the instability axis, within the
    far eastern part of WW 441. Short-term model forecasts suggest that
    this activity will remain intact and move northeastward across parts
    of north-central South Dakota over the next couple of hours.
    Additional storms may also develop in parts of southern and western
    North Dakota. The storms that intensify in proximity of the
    instability axis could produce severe wind gusts and isolated large
    hail.

    ..Broyles/Guyer.. 07/02/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7NVdjYLUVgu06yPSV8ekONvIjj8h_XU0D_oQNHria5tqiuLBB3sUs5s_2KAggvnNxDEiUJ3kH= r-B4vFD2ND-zWwJmiU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

    LAT...LON 46209935 46850000 47600152 47610234 47390268 47100258
    46740228 46180206 45540173 45260128 45150047 45249926
    45709901 46209935=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)