ACUS11 KWNS 022332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022332=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-030130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1454
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Areas affected...Northwest Tennessee into the lower Ohio Valley

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438...

Valid 022332Z - 030130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438
continues.

SUMMARY...Some damaging wind threat will likely persist across
northwest Tennessee and into the lower Ohio River Valley through
mid-evening, but the overall coverage and intensity of the wind
threat should wane through the coming hours. Downstream watch
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KPAH and KHPX shows an
outflow boundary preceding deeper convection emanating out of middle
TN that has a history of sporadic wind damage. Although recent wind
reports have mostly been in the 25-30 mph range, velocity imagery
continues to show pockets of stronger winds within the lowest 1-3 km
that hint that isolated swaths of damaging winds remain possible in
the near term with the primary cluster. Additionally, new convective development is noted on the northern fringe of the leading outflow
boundary with additional new development possible given a weakly
capped environment with around 4000 J/kg MLCAPE immediately
downstream. With low-level lapse rates between 7 to 8 C/km, some
downburst wind threat will likely persist for the next couple of
hours.=20

However, the approaching onset of nocturnal cooling will begin to
diminish low-level lapse rates and gradually increase inhibition.
This should begin to steadily modulate overall convective
intensities and diminish the potential for damaging winds,
especially after 02 UTC. Consequently, downstream watch issuance is
currently not expected.

..Moore.. 07/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5lNBmVd6DFr1VTuS-45sja4o3QpLXSG1xNtmUNPsEu1sl3ozaYuCrYuP22o3lFftbOIwyz00A= TV4Ax1ei63kP7EpBO4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 36838682 36768712 36518743 36348768 36068795 35958809
35928837 36048879 36248920 36488947 36868953 37268938
37478906 37688864 37758820 37748726 37588685 37398662
37168651 36978653 36838682=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)