ACUS11 KWNS 030014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030013=20
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-030215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1455
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Areas affected...Far northeast New York into northern Vermont...New Hampshire...and western Maine

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 030013Z - 030215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms cross the international border may
pose a damaging wind threat in the coming hours across portions of
the Northeast. Watch issuance is not likely, however.

DISCUSSION...Latest MRMS mosaics show a broken band of storms
migrating eastward across southern Quebec and beginning to
cross/approach the international border. Velocity data from CASBV
shows some pockets of stronger winds, but an outflow boundary is
also noted emanating from the southwestern flank of the band. This
suggests that while some swaths of strong/damaging winds are
possible in the near term, the near-storm environment is not
favorable for additional development. Furthermore, GOES IR imagery
has shown some degree of cloud-top warming over the past hour,
suggesting a slight weakening trend. Nonetheless, recent RAP
mesoanalysis depicts 30-40 knots of effective shear and around 1500
J/kg MLCAPE across the region that may support these bands for the
next couple of hours. Based on the aforementioned velocity
observations, some threat for damaging winds will likely accompany
these storms. With time, nocturnal cooling will promote increasing
inhibition and will act as a modulating factor for thunderstorm
intensity, which should limit the overall severe risk and negate the
need for a watch.

..Moore/Guyer.. 07/03/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4uwywk_CUfkf_JHq6hlVEh9XmTgHWyllZerayHlTLIxBPLGqNGpRidDHl4A68dBN9FyuD2aCo= -cCAP_0kMXPWpoNoaQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

LAT...LON 44467370 44777398 45027405 45047272 45027166 45557086
45777040 45666970 45356941 44916965 44467007 44167089
44087158 44077235 44197313 44467370=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)