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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1457

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 3 00:51:35 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 030051
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 030051=20
    NEZ000-030145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1457
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0751 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

    Areas affected...Central and Eastern Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442...

    Valid 030051Z - 030145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across parts of
    central and eastern Nebraska this evening. Severe wind gusts and
    isolated large hail will be possible. Weather watch issuance may be
    needed this evening.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a very moist airmass
    in place over central and eastern Nebraska, where many observation
    sites have dewpoints in the lower 70s F. This is contributing to
    strong instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE ranging from around
    4500 J/kg in southern Nebraska to near 2500 J/kg in northeastern
    Nebraska. To the west of this axis of instability, a mid-level
    shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the central
    High Plains. As this feature moves eastward into the central Plains
    and as the low-level jet strengthens, convective coverage is
    expected to increase. Along and near the axis of instability, the
    RAP has 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, suggesting that a
    severe threat will be possible. The primary threat will be damaging
    wind gusts, but isolated large hail will also be possible.

    ..Broyles.. 07/03/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-EqgHh2GckF_bKbStdsHC_4pC7kfTRCmmrN1RSNaUxu2zm-NuhVQ2xe3xg4DsFAIHmkwVJ0im= qNnWiBMqK6DVts0TPQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 40139832 40799724 41589662 42169654 42469669 42669713
    42759800 42559912 42050014 41430059 41020062 40640050
    40270008 40039927 40139832=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)