1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1459

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 3 02:18:15 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 030218
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 030217=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-030415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1459
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0917 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

    Areas affected...Western and Central North Dakota...Western and
    Central South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 441...

    Valid 030217Z - 030415Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 441
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue across parts of
    the western Dakotas late this evening. Severe wind gusts and hail
    will be the primary threats. Additional weather watch issuance is
    not expected to the east of WW 441.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a trough extending from
    near Rapid City north-northwestward into far eastern Montana. A
    moist airmass is located to the east of the trough over the western
    Dakotas, where dewpoints are mostly from the mid 50s to the mid 60s
    F. Because of this, an axis of moderate instability is analyzed by
    the RAP over the western Dakotas where MLCAPE is generally between
    1500 to 3000 J/kg. Scattered storms, associated with a wind-damage
    and isolated large hail threat, are ongoing within this corridor of
    moderate instability. The storms are being supported by a subtle
    shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery. As the storms move
    eastward into weaker instability over the central Dakotas late this
    evening, the severe threat is expected to become more isolated. For
    this reason, additional weather watch issuance not expected.

    ..Broyles/Guyer.. 07/03/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_uIPMw0BcgWL-G5KT5XftyetQgApznSUNY3IS93uSt5xF-D45u9JbOpBm7SzrHf2Xo6I-csIh= 1Yg5Hu6wVkJwpLrwPM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW...

    LAT...LON 44600120 44880044 45390012 46250018 48080083 48830130
    49130218 49030350 48700406 47760393 46280332 45000265
    44630205 44600120=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)