ACUS11 KWNS 030341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030340=20
NDZ000-MTZ000-030545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1460
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 030340Z - 030545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A wind-damage and hail threat will likely continue across
part of eastern Montana late this evening. The threat is expected to
become more isolated with time, and additional watch issuance
appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery over eastern Montana shows a
line of strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing about 70 statute
miles to the south of Glasgow. The storms are located just to the
northwest of a surface low in an area where surface dewpoints are in
the mid to upper 50s F, and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP around
1000 J/kg. The line currently has a wind-damage threat, which is
being supported by very steep lapse rates in the low-levels. This
line may continue to remain intact as it moves toward the
Montana-North Dakota state line late this evening. Hail could also
occur within the strongest of cores. However, as instability weakens
across the region, the line of storms is expected to become more
disorganized with any severe threat becoming marginal and isolated.

..Broyles.. 07/03/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6UiCaMLffYn2w9i6ObZcnEasjpaDACuI39N_Kf3HHNeLgRllC5-Pqcahn_TZEamu5wZm-vWfI= ebbw1U3fQfBbMPnz3s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 46490592 46550508 46810433 47200393 47670402 48030441
48040521 47880604 47590649 47170666 46720636 46490592=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)