ACUS11 KWNS 030647
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030646=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-030815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1463
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Areas affected...Northeast NE into western IA and extreme southeast
SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444...

Valid 030646Z - 030815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind and isolated hail remain possible overnight.

DISCUSSION...Persistent convection has remained relatively
disorganized thus far across parts of northeast NE into western IA.
However, some east-southeastward propagation has recently been noted
west of Sioux City, which may be an indication of expanding outflow
and a gradually strengthening cold pool. If this trend continues, a
somewhat more organized storm cluster may evolve and move along or
just north of a front draped across western IA, with some uptick in damaging-wind potential. Otherwise, MUCAPE of above 2000 J/kg will
continue to support isolated hail potential with the strongest
embedded updrafts overnight.

..Dean.. 07/03/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6cu_7_vMnr5nuhkeST8gYRB21BKqixF4ef8ECCx_h_QKy_1537xTfDg4puU5LnlBQit70sX8u= MWbCFC8E6RxZClh3yw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 42919680 42759515 42589422 42399386 42139381 41809437
41749470 41649533 41609626 41699680 41869767 42379771
42569769 42919680=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)