ACUS11 KWNS 030727
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030726=20
NEZ000-COZ000-030930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1464
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southwest NE and northeast CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 030726Z - 030930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong to locally severe gusts are
possible overnight.

DISCUSSION...A band of storms has intensified early this morning
from northeast CO into southwest NE. Model-based soundings suggest
that this activity is based around 700 mb, with intensifying
low-level southerly flow from the KGLD VWP indicative of a
strengthening warm-advection regime. Steep midlevel lapse rates and
MUCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg will result in a hail threat with
the strongest updrafts, though modest deep-layer shear and a
generally linear storm mode may temper this potential to some
extent. Localized strong to severe gusts also cannot be ruled out,
given the presence of a relatively dry boundary layer and potential
for strong downdrafts.=20

Short-term guidance suggests that this band of storms will continue
to move north-northeastward with time, with an isolated severe
threat potentially spreading across the southern NE Panhandle and a
larger portion of southwest NE.

..Dean/Mosier.. 07/03/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8wkDcyAxkHK4_i_mHlv3zSXwqTO0tRHI6aN3VVt0N83iG1knOMTCLPntoCUdifi-jgNkKoIjp= o9ANaoIyINkRd1Hnlo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40320402 40610380 41200351 41210236 41120049 40890009
40439990 40209994 40020055 40100121 40250187 40470256
40270370 40320402=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)