ACUS11 KWNS 031626
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031625=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-031830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1466
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Areas affected...Northern Pennsylvania into southwestern New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 031625Z - 031830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
across portions of northern Pennsylvania into southwestern New York,
some of which will be capable of 55-70 MPH wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have begun developing in far northwestern Pennsylvania amidst a general trend of deepening boundary layer
cumulus on visible satellite. Surface temperatures have already
risen into the low 90s F, which already exceeds the estimated
convective temperature from the 12Z PIT sounding. The expectation is
that convective coverage should increase over the next few hours,
especially across northern Pennsylvania and southwestern New York.=20

These storms will exist in an environment characterized by both
steep low-level and mid-level lapse rates, but generally weak
deep-layer shear of 10-15 kts. While the lack of shear will support
primarily disorganized thunderstorms and loose clusters, the steep
lapse rates, modest precipitable water content, and high LCL heights
will support strong thunderstorm downdrafts capable of winds of
55-70 MPH.=20

Both the 12Z HREF and the latest HRRR/RRFS time-lagged ensemble
suggests there could be multiple rounds of convective development
off of the Great Lakes, and some of these storms may loosely cluster
into bowing outflow segments. However, the uncertainty in convective organization and spatial coverage of potential damaging wind gusts
limits confidence in watch issuance at this time. Conditions will
continue to be monitored for a severe thunderstorm watch.

..Halbert/Hart.. 07/03/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_SVCTOO6hJ8pTcq85_coBG5NUDxMPfz4i_3P_W5nADTELpjffjtU_06mI6ZSkld2vg3KcUBVL= 2sAv_XsCMVq_eG5xAk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 40908015 41118052 41518079 41768081 41968055 42137996
42367954 42647907 42887889 43057888 43077830 42967751
42747676 42677664 42537649 42367635 42197626 42017623
41797622 41617626 41397640 41107678 40927728 40707824
40607870 40597930 40657965 40807997 40908015=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)