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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1468

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 3 18:08:12 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 031808
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031807=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-031830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1468
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0107 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

    Areas affected...western South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon=20

    Valid 031807Z - 031830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are expected to persist near the
    Black Hills and develop southeast through the afternoon into early
    evening. Large hail up to 2.5 inches and damaging gusts are
    expected.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms over the Black Hills have gradually
    intensified early this afternoon in a modest upslope flow regime.
    Temperatures remain somewhat cool across western South Dakota due to
    the influence of overnight outflow, but stronger heating should
    continue into the afternoon amid scattered cloudiness. Steep
    midlevel lapse rates per SPC Mesoanalysis are aiding in 1500-2000
    J/kg MUCAPE. Meanwhile, stronger westerly flow aloft is supporting
    effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt, which will favor
    supercells. Large hail will be possible with discrete convection. It
    is uncertain how convection will evolve with southeast extent, but
    convective coverage may increase along outflow draped northwest to
    southeast across western into south-central South Dakota. Some
    potential for upscale growth could occur later this afternoon or
    early evening with an accompanying increasing risk for severe gusts.
    A severe thunderstorm watch is expected soon.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/03/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9idtaAc9-EdoB14TthyzFU3PkORx0qFOY8oGfoXizQLPRdVGW6Iy0NFMGNIvrnWz-mIL5BWLq= j_lHC08y1pAvC90Qq8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 44680402 45120378 45240319 45060230 44110113 43620072
    43070093 42970239 43070365 43850404 44330402 44680402=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)