ACUS11 KWNS 031820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031820=20
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-031915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1469
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Areas affected...Southern Lower MI into northern IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 031820Z - 031915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
across southern Lower Michigan into northern Indiana. A severe
thunderstorm watch is likely as as damaging wind risk could
accompany this activity.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms over northeast IL/southeast WI is
likely to persist as these storms cross Lake Michigan. A strong
instability gradient is oriented west to east across southern MI.
Stronger westerly flow is mainly confined to areas in the wake of
the cluster of storms and further north across Lower MI, somewhat
displaced from the better instability. This results in some
uncertainty regarding how organized convection will continue to be. Nevertheless, ample instability will support continued strong
convection capable of local wind damage, and a severe thunderstorm
watch will likely be needed soon.

..Leitman/Hart.. 07/03/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!46xEo47gAeUxJphh5n8YPonI0mr-OwC7Uwcgj-CdsopHxxJV-PdcFMldJdVpOB4yYSq4oIANZ= UBTO-MdI-eIrwnnQ2w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...

LAT...LON 43068784 43178627 43018456 42878420 42598383 42088394
41748409 41388529 41278563 41208689 41778849 42348829
43068784=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)