ACUS11 KWNS 032034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032034=20
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-032230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1472
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Areas affected...Southern New York into eastern Pennsylvania and
portions of New Jersey

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448...

Valid 032034Z - 032230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448
continues.

SUMMARY...The damaging wind threat for WW 448 continues as storms
move east-southeast across the watch area.

DISCUSSION...Severe thunderstorm activity has continued to increase
in coverage amidst a hot and humid boundary layer. While the
multicellular convection is generally disorganized, steep lapse
rates, modest precipitable water content, and high LCL heights all
support a damaging wind threat with the strongest thunderstorm
downdrafts. An additional round of thunderstorms moving across Lake
Ontario could potentially impact northern portions of the watch
area, but the general expectation is for convective activity to
diminish into the evening with the removal of solar heating.

..Halbert.. 07/03/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-dPFOnwjN8AA969U5OM8vyXKqNnqDT5G_6l4e26U9W3wu-N9cecQlo20YBlwe6XuOAF1L0qUS= iUHDjg1WHpRJeMOQLs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 41907822 42287805 42457727 42467583 42377472 41957440
41387443 40267467 39677536 39427620 39627720 40177802
40837817 41457821 41907822=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)