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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1473

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 3 21:41:44 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 032141
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032141=20
    NEZ000-COZ000-032345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1473
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0441 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

    Areas affected...Northwest and North-central Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 032141Z - 032345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible
    across parts of northwest and north-central Nebraska this evening.
    Additional weather watch issuance may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are currently developing along an axis of
    moderate instability that extends northward from northwest Nebraska
    into southwest South Dakota. The storms appear to be supported by a
    mid-level shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery. Due to
    large-scale ascent, convective coverage is expected to increase over
    the next few hours. In addition, the Rapid City WSR-88D VWP has 0-6
    km shear around 40 knots. This, combined with steep lapse rates in
    the low to mid-levels, will support a severe threat this evening.
    Supercells should be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind
    gusts. Severe gusts will also be possible with short intense line
    segments. Further southwest, storms are ongoing in far southeast
    Wyoming. These cells are forecast to remain intact, moving eastward
    across western Nebraska over the next few hours. Severe wind gusts
    and hail will also be possible in and near the stronger cores.

    ..Broyles/Gleason.. 07/03/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-L7y4MymBD3Hi6APn54qYOrCNwbQ7x2WPrE04YIWybm5wIFReINFn28obmTwjsF6M4ReII_cq= oL-riFQQf0i5Y9Ji6s$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 42950241 42850303 42530354 41890395 41450401 41120388
    40990366 40960321 40970181 41110117 41300083 41580063
    42030051 42530060 42770084 42900118 42950154 42950241=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)