ACUS11 KWNS 032231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032231=20
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-040030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1477
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0531 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania...southern New York...and
northern New Jersey

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448...

Valid 032231Z - 040030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for severe winds is increasing across
eastern Pennsylvania, southern New York (including the New York City
metro), and northern New Jersey as storms approach the coast.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KBGM and KDIX depict an
initially broken band of thunderstorms beginning to show the early
signs of cold pool amalgamation and upscale growth. Concurrently,
increasing MRMS VIL values and cooling cloud-top temperatures have
been observed over the past hour, further hinting that organization/intensification is occurring. More recently, a 75 mph
gust was observed at Scranton, PA.=20

Regional VWPs from central NY have been sampling fairly strong
(40-50 knot) mid-level winds that are supporting stronger deep-layer
wind shear than depicted by recent RAP mesoanalyses, and is likely
promoting the recent intensification trend. Consequently, given the
development of a deeper/more cohesive cold pool and strong
deep-layer shear in proximity to ongoing convection, it seems likely
that the potential for severe winds (most likely 55-75 mph) will
persist downstream for the next couple of hours as storms approach
the coast. Based on latest storm tracks, this band should reach the
NY/NJ coast within the next 2-3 hours.

..Moore.. 07/03/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5hKJzHTLh-CNGfxsQhoG3Fb_uZfzjFUF9BlbTGhu4oN4kkYqEZnasQTKRn7Zf6L6lPl9UeFYb= JP2xuRQvN6av3VJAag$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON 40917669 40977631 41217577 41437542 41577506 41607470
41047342 40817325 40587338 40497372 40307393 40147399
40037408 39977446 40017511 40127561 40357613 40587672
40737687 40917669=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)