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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1478

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 3 22:56:14 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 032256
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032255=20
    NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-040100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1478
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0555 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

    Areas affected...Eastern Montana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 032255Z - 040100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
    evening across parts of eastern Montana. The threat is expected to
    be marginal, and additional weather watch issuance appears unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a surface trough over
    eastern Montana, along which low-level convergence is maximized.
    Near the convergence axis, surface dewpoints are in the upper 50s F
    and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. A
    broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing along the western
    edge of the stronger instability, and appears to be supported by a
    mid-level shortwave trough approaching from the west. The Glasgow
    and Billings WSR-88D VWPs have 25 to 30 knots of deep-layer shear.
    In addition, RAP forecast soundings show steep low to mid-level
    lapse rates. This environment could be enough for an isolated severe
    threat with strong wind gusts and hail possible.

    ..Broyles/Gleason.. 07/03/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9YVST5XvLe4zgh3N0BDIagO7u52k2utBPLscpo9-YjRnMZeUBf6DQdvuG8UA9265aMhdgvMjR= LeY2rifYaXvWmrTMzs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 48680407 48890447 48970511 48960564 48670642 47990701
    46920790 46360803 45750785 45450751 45250696 45120627
    45110587 45080539 45150454 45580407 46450395 48240399
    48680407=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)