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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1480

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 3 23:38:17 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 032338
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032337=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-040130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1480
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0637 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

    Areas affected...West-central and north-central Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 032337Z - 040130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible
    across parts of west-central and north-central Kansas this evening.
    A weather watch will need to be considered.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1007 mb low over
    the western Oklahoma Panhandle with an axis of low-level convergence
    extending northeastward across western and northern Kansas. Surface
    dewpoints near and to the east of the axis are in the mid 60s to mid
    70s F. This is contributing to a strongly unstable airmass with the
    RAP showing MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4500 J/kg range. As a mid-level
    shortwave trough and vorticity max moves eastward across the central
    High Plains early this evening, thunderstorms are expected to
    develop along and near the instability axis. The latest WSR-88D VWP
    at Dodge City has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots with some directional
    shear in the 1 to 4 km layer. This should support supercell
    development. Supercells will likely be capable of isolated large
    hail and severe wind gusts. Severe gusts may also occur with any
    intense short line segment that can become organized.

    ..Broyles/Gleason.. 07/03/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-OMRZjdJn5XpEkCJr61EmMdNvrc2EvkWrxorreEursD6ny2vm17N9OgVSmDSQe_ee2HFJC1IS= MLRuISmJ4QBgtMWKv8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 38140144 37930148 37600127 37430082 37370025 37629928
    38399840 38939754 39639717 39969749 40049812 40059867
    40009925 39659994 39020063 38480118 38140144=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)