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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1481

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 4 00:28:16 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 040028
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040027=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-040230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1481
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0727 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

    Areas affected...Southwestern South Dakota...Northwestern and
    North-central Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 446...450...

    Valid 040027Z - 040230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 446, 450
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail
    will likely continue over the next few hours across parts of
    southwestern South Dakota into northwest and north-central Nebraska.

    DISCUSSION...On surface analysis, an axis of low-level convergence
    is located from western Nebraska northward into southwestern South
    Dakota, along which surface dewpoints are in the mid 50s to lower
    60s F. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing near
    this axis of convergence, along which the RAP has a corridor of
    MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, the North Platte
    and Rapid City WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear in the 45 to 50 knot
    range. This environment will support a severe threat this evening.
    Supercells will be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind
    gusts. Short intense line segments will also be capable of strong to
    severe gusts. The threat will eventually move southeastward into
    north-central Nebraska later this evening.

    ..Broyles.. 07/04/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7cLhimSNYjs5ThUjWXhG4y7HOmkV7e4HEX2Vm7q-r4_hcu3T1qkEIgQ2d7Yxgz5eOEr96ezqB= rn88rbDDeyfV_5kTSA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

    LAT...LON 42139945 42509964 43160013 43780065 44320145 44550203
    44570259 44360335 44010390 43780397 43540385 43110319
    42320245 41560190 41260125 41310063 41499990 41839956
    42139945=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)