ACUS11 KWNS 040216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040216=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-040415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1483
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0916 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Areas affected...North-central and Northeast Kansas...Far Southeast Nebraska...Southwest Iowa...Far Northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449...452...

Valid 040216Z - 040415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449, 452
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will continue to
be possible over the next few hours from parts of north-central
Kansas northeastward into southwest Iowa. A watch extension in area
may be needed to the south and east of the current watches.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms is
ongoing near an axis of strong instability, where surface dewpoints
range from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F. Across this moist
airmass, the RAP shows an axis of instability with MLCAPE in the
3500 to 4500 J/kg range. The instability along with large-scale
ascent associated with a mid-level shortwave trough is helping to
maintain storm intensity within the line. The line will move slowly southeastward into northeast Kansas, far northwest Missouri and
southwest Iowa over the next few hours. Although a severe threat is
expected to continue through late this evening, the threat could
become a bit more isolated as inhibition gradually increases.

..Broyles.. 07/04/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Ca6N1R9Ahz2V4OEcZBecE2YdRz43pA0Ur3kHP-Ue0WSYlKVQ9ophu05ml4uBWRetW_LoyIYY= f9q-PNx2JGVIgUJP38$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 41689486 41709538 41519589 41059625 40189689 39589786
39279875 39139980 38869998 38549984 38309911 38419739
38949587 39469508 40339441 41059420 41509445 41689486=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)