ACUS11 KWNS 040551
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040550=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-040645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1486
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...Parts of northeast CO into northwest KS and far
southwest NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 040550Z - 040645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and localized strong to severe gusts will be
possible into the early morning.

DISCUSSION...Storms have increased in coverage and intensity late
tonight across parts of northeast CO, likely aided by warm advection
in the 800-700 mb layer, to the north of a front draped from
east-central CO into northwest KS. Moist low-level easterly flow
beneath steep midlevel lapse rates is resulting in MUCAPE of
near/above 1500 J/kg, with effective bulk shear likely around 30-40
kt for convection rooted around 800 mb. This environment is
supportive of at least transient storm organization, though rather
weak upper-level flow will likely result in a complex storm mode.
This could temper the longevity of the hail threat with any
particular storm, though the environment otherwise supports hail
approaching 2 inches in diameter. Localized severe gusts will also
be possible in association with the strongest downdrafts and any
larger-scale outflows.

..Dean/Mosier.. 07/04/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-lqE3qyki5jt9nu5GgsA5KxJYmYSUEEEa3VgdEzzAKpc46W891paoWM_ivn1KHdKg-e92ilo0= b1ZEcPn4qyCTw9UEQI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 39200440 40230355 40410199 40290038 39430011 38940018
38690038 38590081 38960223 39000298 38990351 38960415
39200440=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)