ACUS11 KWNS 041936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041936=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-042130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1495
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...central into eastern Missouri and far west-central
Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454...

Valid 041936Z - 042130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454
continues.

SUMMARY...A small but long-lived storm/bow may continue to produce
damaging winds from central Missouri toward the St. Louis vicinity
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An eastward-moving storm complex persists this
afternoon, producing areas of wind damage from west-central into
central MO. This bow is now moving along a confluence zone which can
be seen in surface obs and also by virtue of an east-west corridor
of enhanced CU and isolated leading convection. The environment
remains quite unstable from MO into southern IL, and daytime heating
continues. The bow has fluctuated in intensity at times, as outflow
pushes ahead of the system. However, portions of this system may
regenerate and continue to produce periodic wind damage as the
outflow surge continues east.

..Jewell.. 07/04/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6yXkBsTB6epmja1B9iF7N_s5ETZY0vpo0x_jIEcNU95tRv3wFOgQjxnzCKy67QqcvCHoO3sR0= 1GzHSKr9W7qsFCNT3E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 37849095 37959289 38289272 38759299 39059039 38908985
38618967 38068976 37909002 37849095=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)