ACUS11 KWNS 042050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042049=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-042315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1496
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 042049Z - 042315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm development is expected between
22-00Z. The primary concerns will be severe wind gusts and large
hail.

DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery depicts an
increasingly agitated boundary-layer cumulus field evolving at the
nose of a robust heat axis extending into northwest OK. Additional
deepening cumulus is evident along a remnant outflow boundary in
south-central KS into northern OK. Over the next few hours,
continued diurnal heating should promote thunderstorm development in
these zones of mesoscale ascent.=20

The pre-convective environment is characterized by a warm/moist PBL
(lower 70s dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (sampled by
the DDC 18Z sounding). The resultant strong surface-based buoyancy
and around 40 kt of effective shear (with modest low-level hodograph
curvature) will initially promote semi-discrete supercells capable
of producing severe wind gusts and very large hail. While uncertain,
a tornado cannot be entirely ruled out with any boundary/storm
interactions. With time, increasing storm coverage and congealing
cold pools should promote upscale growth into organized clusters,
with an increasing risk for scattered severe/damaging gusts with
southward extent. A watch is likely this afternoon.

..Weinman/Hart.. 07/04/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6x2IJr56evxOmGi2947QYFFGzG4-YGhJ3w0kkrnVH8Ujna0FR0lq52HMY3JenBNlJhfidZFfR= 41BpD1nv9KhTgoYNTI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 35909567 35739628 35659703 35709801 35909890 36279943
36699957 36979945 37219919 37459835 37679589 37539539
37229511 36639504 36209520 35909567=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)