ACUS11 KWNS 042113
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042113=20
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-042215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1498
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0413 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Colorado into western and
central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 042113Z - 042215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Multiple instances of severe wind and hail will accompany
the stronger and longer lasting storms, especially during their
mature stage. A WW issuance may be needed pending greater storm
coverage.

DISCUSSION...Multiple multicells and transient supercells have
developed over the past couple of hours, with an instance of 2+ inch
diameter hail recently reported in Keith County, NE. These storms
are developing along a diffuse baroclinic boundary aligned from
western NE into far northeastern CO, amid appreciable buoyancy
(1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE), but relatively poor vertical wind shear.
Given the current shear profile, it is unclear how widespread and
long-lasting any severe threat will be. Nonetheless, 8+ C/km
mid-level lapse rates overspreading the central High Plains, where
storms are already present, suggests that a severe threat may
persist through the afternoon/evening. As such, a WW issuance is
possible if storms increase in coverage.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 07/04/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9nNhv2H-rXD6KxxUtp45PQNYaqe-bLQ_B9006akgOGtkDyh_eTqkfqFAZ0QiQbbEiixaZql9T= Otm_LszD9RGxNaaAcM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40990497 41230415 41280353 41410294 41910236 42360170
42710099 42710034 42380001 41979994 41410016 40870066
40470142 40210215 40120292 40080351 40060410 40250461
40990497=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)