ACUS11 KWNS 042207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042207=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-042330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1500
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0507 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...West central/southwest Minnesota and northeast
South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 042207Z - 042330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and strong outflow gusts possible
through sunset, but the overall threat is expected to remain too
marginal for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered storms are ongoing along a couple of
outflow boundaries in MN, and along-southwest of a diffuse surface
trough into northeast SD. Water vapor imagery shows a weak midlevel
trough beginning to turn southeastward over northeast SD, which
should support additional storm development through the evening into
west central/southwest MN and northeast SD along the weak surface
boundaries. Vertical shear is on the lower margins for
organized/supercell storms in a moderately unstable environment,
with sufficiently steep low-midlevel lapse rates for isolated large
hail and strong outflow gusts. Since storm intensity and
organization are unlikely to increase from what is observed now, a
watch is likely not necessary.

..Thompson/Gleason.. 07/04/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!90PB5y9yJI-BxCTB2k9UfT3rXK6o8_08VpjIAQR7WRlmRIGcadUEzJxQK6_BPH2fpytbm_veF= 4TShlMvEwoc02c8MRA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 46349597 45989564 45749492 45979371 45779338 45539348
44899510 44489553 43969572 43919594 44829671 44939841
44949900 45259927 45779916 46089852 46089845 46019772
45749737 45609691 45739645 46249628 46349597=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)