ACUS11 KWNS 042219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042218=20
CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-050015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1501
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Pennsylvania into southern New York and
western Connecticut

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459...

Valid 042218Z - 050015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459
continues.

SUMMARY...A corridor of higher severe wind potential may be emerging
across parts of northeast Pennsylvania into southern New York over
the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES IR imagery shows steady cloud top cooling
of convection near Scranton, PA and west of Albany, NY, hinting at
gradual intensification. Regional VWPs from central/southern NY
continue to show 30-40 knot mid-level flow over the region, which is
supporting similar effective bulk shear values. This kinematic
environment is favorable for maintenance of the ongoing convection
and may promote further organization. Although regional buoyancy is
not overly robust, a corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE remains in
place immediately downstream of these clusters where low-level lapse
rates remain near 8 C/km after full diurnal heating. These
thermodynamic conditions will also promote storm maintenance and
facilitate cold pool development. Given the downstream
thermodynamic/kinematic environment, some uptick in severe wind
potential appears likely over the next couple of hours with either
of these clusters.

..Moore.. 07/04/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6CTainOaBLofNM8nGtXSMNpOI7b8Y-3uDhTajAkZIT07Yju4-4iFi-EBY8nmFRChxqDROegG3= DmSc3qXKi2zjukXtrA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON 40867371 41127560 41227591 41597589 41947561 42257528
42437499 42557474 42547449 42487413 41767272 41617256
41467262 41277278 41177295 41047334 40867371=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)