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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1502

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 4 22:34:53 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 042234
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042234=20
    OKZ000-050000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1502
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0534 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

    Areas affected...North central and northwest Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 460...

    Valid 042234Z - 050000Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 460
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Developing storm clusters will pose an increasing threat
    for severe outflow gusts of 80+ mph into this evening while
    spreading southeastward.

    DISCUSSION...Two storm clusters have developed - one near the
    outflow/front intersection in southern KS and another along the
    front in northwest OK. New storm development may also occur along
    the front between the two, with a larger cluster possibly evolving
    through late evening. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for
    supercells, especially along the residual outflow boundary in
    northern OK. The environment downstream from these clusters appears
    favorable for hybrid microbursts with deep inverted-V profiles and
    large buoyancy with hot surface temperatures and sufficient moisture
    to keep storms going into early tonight. Deep-layer vertical shear
    will be sufficient for some cluster organization. As a result, the
    potential for severe outflow gusts is expected to increase through
    00z in northwest and north central OK, where a few gusts could
    exceed 80 mph. Additionally, the strongest/embedded supercells will
    be capable of producing large hail in the 1.5-2.5 inch diameter
    range.

    ..Thompson.. 07/04/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9PkIz6CNSqm6yjRNwHRdOBzyoP278QiQzc7l-X2tu9cirVa_VLiXTOCB3P2OmI5_KRXoZtCXZ= dZBbTikLupJOEipZHM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

    LAT...LON 36979713 36809647 36619636 36249622 36139678 36009733
    35769826 35859874 36049890 36249883 36649812 36939756
    36979713=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)