ACUS11 KWNS 050019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050019=20
NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-050215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1505
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 457...459...

Valid 050019Z - 050215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 457, 459
continues.

SUMMARY...A corridor of higher severe wind potential is emerging
from eastern Maryland into Delaware, eastern Pennsylvania, and New
Jersey. Wind gusts between 55-70 mph will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, two more prominent clusters have
emerged across southeast PA and MD with substantial upticks in
lightning counts and steadily cooling cloud-top temperatures noted
in IR imagery. At the surface, both of these clusters have produced
severe wind gusts as they begin to impinge on a warm air mass with
steep low-level lapse rates. Although temperatures downstream from
these clusters have begun to cool due to the recent loss of daytime
heating, temperatures remain in the low to mid 90s with 25-30 F
dewpoint depressions noted ahead of the clusters and south of an
outflow boundary.=20

Further cooling/stabilization is expected, but maturing cold pools
associated with these clusters, coupled with somewhat stronger
mid-level flow with north and eastward extent, will likely maintain
convective intensities and may promote some degree of
intensification over the next couple of hours. Consequently, the
potential for strong/severe winds (most likely between 55-70 mph)
should be focused downstream into portions of far southeast PA and central/southern NJ - mainly along and south of the outflow
boundary.

..Moore.. 07/05/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8r3OI37WFMWlEouNYCofeUj3iYcEn5lced29E-xDcNrKXM4cjMTkdEJvwXuRC4sfYTuXsw4vp= a6VEv2EbBFYb1GLU7A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 38457608 39437619 39867630 40077625 40287604 40627455
40567416 40377397 40127393 39837400 39617412 39377435
39127463 38977475 38777496 38627497 38427500 38287525
38347563 38387597 38457608=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)