ACUS11 KWNS 050048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050048=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-050215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1507
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...Northeast and central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 460...

Valid 050048Z - 050215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 460
continues.

SUMMARY...The main wind surge through about 02z will continue into
northeast Oklahoma, including the Tulsa area. Additional
strong-severe storm development remains possible farther west, to
the immediate north of the OKC metro area.

DISCUSSION...The earlier storms along the KS/OK border have evolved
into a bowing cluster with measured gusts of 61-66 mph via the OK
mesonet. Though outflow is a bit ahead of the primary
reflectivity/updrafts, the storms are well organized and should
remain so across northeast OK in a strongly unstable environment
with substantial deep-layer northwesterly shear. Farther west,
there is still the potential for new storm development north of the
OKC metro where outflow interactions are occurring. The environment
is less moist compared to northeast OK, but ascent atop the outflows
in a steep lapse rate environment could still support new updraft
development and a subsequent threat for severe outflow gusts through
at least 02z.

..Thompson.. 07/05/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ci1zCIQxk2oIVXleEUF_hev5TnKpjTDkvwnWVnfB-Qi2TAgEUsTnzVIlBKi6pG0U7aQBJTyK= eHwmROZm8FW7ItLzZA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 35439660 35369756 35579811 35889843 36069836 36029788
36049745 36129657 36449597 37049584 37149544 36909507
36399497 35879522 35529576 35439660=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)