ACUS11 KWNS 051724
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051724=20
PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-052030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1509
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Areas affected...northeast Ohio...into western Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 051724Z - 052030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage this afternoon, with
isolated severe wind gusts or even a brief/weak tornado.

DISCUSSION...An MCV/cluster of thunderstorms continues to move
eastward across northern OH and into northwest PA/western NY, which
is also along the instability gradient. Wind fields are generally
weak, but may be locally enhanced near this feature. The 12Z BUF
sounding shows a bit stronger deep-layer shear over 30 kt, which may
help sustain a few cells.

As heating occurs ahead of the MCV, a few of the cells may acquire
at least weak rotation and longevity, which will maximize damaging
wind, small/marginal hail, and brief/weak tornado potential. Given
the weakness in the shear overall, a watch is not currently
anticipated.

..Jewell/Hart.. 07/05/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ELry3XWz57K3UC3A_0yJvopEBCe0efPs41KWRjjDTP4O4q26Gz6nhDInWX3WRaftQTEKeJBd= eZbbf98czptqr0U9TQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 41078245 41218200 41378135 41668068 42087983 42277912
42147850 41817822 41437838 40778007 40558114 40508211
40578243 40858259 41078245=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)