ACUS11 KWNS 051753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051753=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-052100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1510
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Areas affected...eastern South Carolina into central North Carolina
and far south-central Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 051753Z - 052100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic severe gusts are possible through this afternoon
across the central Carolinas into southern Virginia.

DISCUSSION...Storms formed quickly near the SC sea breeze, and where
a very moist and unstable air mass was already in place this morning
per 12Z CHS sounding. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg also extends
northward across much of NC, where temperatures continue to rise
near a weak pressure trough. Additional storms could redevelop
northward as outflows are produced.

North of the existing sea breeze storms, additional clusters are
evident, and some of this activity may gain localized severe wind
potential over the next few hours as they move with an eastward
component toward increasing DCAPE.

..Jewell/Hart.. 07/05/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Fb_OwV5HKSOcP-rTdonR6CM3-yy2jV637JaCjz3e1ZWQ5luEUOxVygiXOWyBv0TRdO1hF7KX= geSIILUdx6npTS4Aso$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 33658127 34948026 36107984 36957950 37027901 37137809
37007773 36737772 36047803 34127885 33547912 33287950
32857993 32588078 32948126 33658127=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)