ACUS11 KWNS 051846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051846=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-052045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1511
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of north/northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 051846Z - 052045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage/intensity will gradually increase
over the next couple of hours. Isolated large hail and damaging wind
gusts possible. Area is being monitored for possible severe
thunderstorm watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary from overnight convection is
located from near the Red River northwestward into the southern TX
Panhandle early this afternoon. Scattered elevated thunderstorms
have developed across southern OK in a low-level warm advection
regime. This activity at times has shown gradual strengthening with
MRMS MESH approaching 1 inch and 7 km CAPPI showing increasing
reflectivity cores aloft. At least weak inhibition is noted in SPC Mesoanalysis, and was present at 12z from FWD and 18z from AMA
RAOBs. Additional heating/moistening should erode MLCIN over the
next 1-2 hour.=20

A growing cumulus field along and south of the outflow boundary, and
MLCAPE now around 1000-2000 J/kg suggests storms will increase in coverage/intensity soon after capping has diminished, most likely by
20-21z. Deep-layer flow is rather modest, but vertically veering
wind profiles will support sufficient effective shear for supercell
profiles. Initial thunderstorms may pose a risk of large hail and
strong outflow gusts. With time, convection may congeal into a
forward propagating cluster, with an accompany risk from damaging
winds toward evening. Portions of the MCD area may need a severe
thunderstorm watch within the next couple hours.

..Leitman/Hart.. 07/05/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6kHqIhp97um1SedN1VhFNpxZTwXSrN2m_WQJbMC5-6fX5kHtOlcRfuU9M2VJ93Rvb444V7HmY= Dlo4eiRWJNHoJANlM4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 33460301 33990314 34410312 34750311 34910264 34860216
34690129 34469984 34299839 34079755 33749707 33439692
33109697 32789720 32489754 32249808 32159913 32310058
32680166 33460301=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)