ACUS11 KWNS 052206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052206=20
TXZ000-052330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1515
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0506 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Areas affected...North central and northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 463...

Valid 052206Z - 052330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 463
continues.

SUMMARY...Occasional severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph will be the
primary severe threat the next few hours, especially across
northwest Texas. The severe threat may extend into the Midland CWA,
outside the current watch.

DISCUSSION...Multicell storm clusters have formed this afternoon
from the TX South Plains into northwest TX, and a separate area of
storms is ongoing in northeast TX. The eastern storms will pose a
threat for occasional wet microbursts as convection develops slowly
southward on outflow. Larger storm clusters with multiple outflow
surges are ongoing across northwest TX. The storms are developing southwestward into the zone of strongest surface heating with the
steepest low-level lapse rates, roughly outlined in the cumulus
field that extends to about Sweetwater. This zone will encompass
the relatively greater threat for severe outflow winds with hybrid
microbursts into this evening, especially with cell and outflow
mergers.

Low-level moisture is a bit more limited toward Lubbock and the west
part of the watch. However, deep inverted-V profiles favor strong
downdrafts. The more probable area for severe gusts over the next
couple of hours will be with new storm development immediately
northeast of and into the Lubbock area where north-south and
east-west outflow segments merge.

..Thompson.. 07/05/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7WY7KebTrnDzXtXfHBSHByq0kdxvhyeITPI_uew9OjzzbB-bmYyTCo3PWDzkbGJ44PY25Q5jE= IYTKNVZhvYxfOyK6zk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 31899568 31619442 31349434 31169478 31499649 31959703
32259742 32479787 32609826 32609890 32539933 32449969
32430019 32490068 32650116 33080183 33370217 33600235
33860233 33940217 34000177 34250136 34250119 33840095
33530041 33770000 33749975 33509944 33339882 33379831
33539793 33199710 32249616 31899568=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)