ACUS11 KWNS 052320
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052320=20
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-060115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1516
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0620 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Areas affected...Western to north-central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464...

Valid 052320Z - 060115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are gradually intensifying across western
North Dakota and should begin to pose a severe hail/wind risk for
the next several hours. A persistent supercell along the
international border may also pose a more isolated severe risk
through late evening.

DISCUSSION...MRMS imagery and lightning counts depict gradual
intensification of thunderstorms along a surface trough across
western ND. Based on vertically integrated ice and MESH data, some
of the deeper cores are becoming sufficiently intense to pose a
severe hail risk, and the early stages of mid-level rotation are
noted in KBIS velocity imagery. These signs all suggest that the
potential for severe hail is gradually increasing, and will likely
persist for the next few hours downstream. Based on latest RAP
mesoanalyses, the best potential for significant (2 inch) hail
remains along and north of the Highway 23 corridor where slightly
richer low-level moisture will likely support deeper/more robust
updrafts capable of realizing the strong vertical shear over the
region. Further south, more dry and deeply-mixed low-level profiles
may favor a slightly greater severe wind threat.=20

Further east, and north of the international border, an isolated
supercell has demonstrated significant deviant motion at times to
the southeast. While deviant motion has waned in the past 30 minutes (coincident with decreasing lightning counts and a slight weakening
trend), the cell continues to move across a buoyant and moderately
sheared environment that may support further southward propagation.
If this occurs, an isolated hail threat will likely materialize
along the ND side of the border, but should remain sufficiently
isolated to preclude watch issuance.

..Moore.. 07/05/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Aj317NcuHshXkafH_J1maQv0NgIJmiiAax0OJ7AaJc7aj5fsv6ZL8VcSucmvJgA17PlAgPla= QCZKFiF6LBBdRzuxkA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 46010280 45930287 45770323 45730364 45800408 46070419
46720405 47950332 48510283 48910231 49030166 49059838
48899811 48679817 48549838 48539882 48509962 48470051
48310109 47760145 47310181 46590233 46010280=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)