ACUS11 KWNS 060020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060020=20
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-060215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1518
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Pennsylvania into western New Jersey

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465...

Valid 060020Z - 060215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465
continues.

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms organizing across southeast
Pennsylvania will likely pose a relatively higher damaging wind
threat downstream into west-central New Jersey over the next few
hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest reflectivity imagery from KDIX and KCCX shows
steady clustering of convection between Harrisburg and Lancaster,
PA. Although no coherent cold pool is yet evident in velocity data,
the general trend favors the development of a more cohesive cold
pool over the next hour. Once this occurs, cold-pool-driven
propagation should become more pronounced with an attendant uptick
in strong/severe winds. Downstream, a pocket of around 1500 J/kg
MLCAPE likely persists across southeast PA into west-central NJ
where temperatures remain in the low 80s with dewpoints in the low
70s. However, the approaching onset of nocturnal cooling will likely
begin to diminish low-level lapse rates and increase near-surface
inhibition, which will act as modulating factors to overall wind
magnitudes. Given these considerations, the expectation over the
next 1-3 hours is that this cluster will feature some degree of
loose organization with an increasing threat for damaging winds
within a focused corridor downstream, though wind speeds will most
likely only reach into the 45-60 mph range.

..Moore.. 07/06/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6tV1z5u_WM6vKg2XRSaJWm9ksxXXVv3OSx_FgAW6CODShU-X4uSLgL6zmUcG0K7a_z0NT0XZ3= lEX_eVWoIi4YrbYOTU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 39737712 39977680 40397667 40567646 40427493 40217483
39977478 39747482 39557494 39437520 39417549 39527674
39577702 39737712=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)