ACUS11 KWNS 060636
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060636=20
NDZ000-MTZ000-060830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1521
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Areas affected...Parts of eastern MT into western ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 060636Z - 060830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible through the
early morning.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing early this morning across
parts of eastern MT, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave
trough and attendant cold front. While this convection is likely
somewhat elevated, steep midlevel lapse rates atop relatively rich
low-level moisture are resulting in MUCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg (per
recent objective mesoanalyses), with sufficient effective bulk shear
for some storm organization. This thermodynamic environment will
favor some hail threat, especially with any longer-lived
semi-discrete cells. Low-level nocturnal stabilization may limit the severe-wind threat to some extent, but isolated strong to severe
gusts may still accompany the strongest downdrafts. The isolated
severe threat may spread into parts of western ND with time early
this morning.

..Dean/Mosier.. 07/06/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_kGkNjXe-39X9haDx9f6HewXowcZnXpSPE6ND307qYYfFxNGZp8sSfZ-_82cOXP9cTEJ0iRJY= lDrHQIUrvUAVT-xm78$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 46520370 46210448 46540510 47760545 48440518 48970431
49270288 49040226 48410245 46520370=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)