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  • DAY48SVR: Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Nov 5 09:46:06 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 050945
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 050944

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0344 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026

    Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Minimal thunderstorm potential is forecast across the CONUS through
    the period.

    Scattered showers and few elevated thunderstorms may persist over
    far southern TX on Sun/D4 as a positive-tilt shortwave trough moves
    out of Mexico an into TX. Lapse rates will generally be poor, with
    marginal instability and moist profiles aided by east/southeast
    surface winds. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.

    Otherwise, an active northern stream jet will bring progressive
    troughs east/southeastward across the northern Plains, Great Lakes
    and Northeast/Mid Atlantic, with reinforcing areas of high pressure
    maintaining stable conditions.

    ..Jewell.. 11/05/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Nov 6 07:50:12 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 060749
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 060747

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0147 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026

    Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Early next week, west-northwesterly flow is forecast over much of
    the northern U.S., while an upper-level trough is forecast to move
    across the south-central states. Thunderstorms will be possible
    ahead of this weakening trough along the western Gulf Coast on
    Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, thunderstorms will be possible
    along the coast of Louisiana. From Wednesday into Thursday, a
    large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into
    the east-central U.S. This will help usher cool and dry air
    southward across the U.S, limiting moisture return from the Gulf. As
    a result, thunderstorm potential appears to be low late in the Day 4
    to 8 period.

    ..Broyles.. 11/06/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Nov 7 09:41:00 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 070940
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 070938

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0338 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026

    Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    During the mid-week, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to
    move across the western and central Gulf Coast, where a moist
    airmass will likely be in place. Thunderstorm development will be
    possible near the coasts of Texas and Louisiana from Tuesday into
    Wednesday. On Thursday, thunderstorm development will be possible in
    parts of the eastern U.S, ahead of a deepening upper-level trough.
    No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. from
    Tuesday to Thursday.

    On Friday and Saturday, dry and cool air associated with high
    pressure is forecast to dominate the central and eastern U.S., which
    will likely limit thunderstorm potential over most of the U.S.

    ..Broyles.. 11/07/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Nov 8 09:47:24 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 080947
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 080945

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0345 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026

    Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    During the Day 4 to 8 period, a cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will
    be in place over the eastern U.S, with a series of shortwave troughs
    moving through the large-scale trough. Ahead of this feature,
    thunderstorm development will be possible in the southern Great
    Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, and in parts of the central
    Appalachians on Thursday. Further west, an upper-level ridge will
    move slowly eastward across the western and central U.S. At the
    surface, high pressure is forecast to settle into the Gulf Coast
    states from Friday to Sunday, limiting thunderstorm potential across
    the majority of the nation.

    ..Broyles.. 11/08/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Nov 9 08:21:42 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 090739
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 090737

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0137 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026

    Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    On Thursday/Day 4, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into
    the eastern U.S., as an associated cold front advances southeastward
    to near the Atlantic coasts of the Carolinas and Georgia.
    Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front and ahead
    of the trough in the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated strong wind gusts will
    be possible, but any potential for severe gusts should be minimal
    due to weak instability. From the weekend into early next week, a
    large area of high pressure is forecast to move across the central
    and eastern U.S. In response, a cold and dry airmass is expected to
    settle in over much of the continental U.S., which will be
    unfavorable for thunderstorm development in most areas.

    ..Broyles.. 11/09/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Nov 10 09:47:38 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 100947
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 100945

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0345 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

    Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A large-scale upper-level trough will move eastward into the western
    Atlantic over the weekend, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves
    into the southern Plains. Ahead of this second system,
    thunderstorms, potentially associated with an isolated severe
    threat, will be possible across parts of south and central Texas
    from Saturday into Sunday. As this trough moves eastward across the
    Southeast on Monday and Tuesday, a large-scale upper-level ridge
    will build northeastward across the central U.S. Further west, an
    upper-level low is forecast to move toward the Desert Southwest on
    Monday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this
    feature from southern California into Arizona from Monday into
    Tuesday.

    ..Broyles.. 11/10/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Nov 11 09:19:12 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 110918
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 110916

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0316 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

    Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Over the coming weekend, a mid-level shortwave trough will move from
    the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough,
    moisture advection is forecast across much of Texas and Oklahoma,
    where surface dewpoints could increase into the 50s and 60s F. This
    would contribute to weak instability over parts of the southern
    Plains Sunday afternoon. Uncertainty exists on where the northern
    extent of the instability will be but it seems likely that enough
    instability will be in place by late Sunday afternoon for an
    isolated severe threat in parts of central and north Texas. As the
    system moves eastward across the Southeast from Monday to Wednesday, thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day from the
    central Gulf Coast to the Florida Peninsula. The best chance for an
    isolated severe threat would be on Wednesday over the Florida
    Peninsula where an unstable airmass is forecast as the trough
    passes.

    ..Broyles.. 11/11/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Nov 11 10:02:58 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 111002
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 111000

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0400 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

    Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Over the coming weekend, a mid-level shortwave trough will move from
    the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough,
    moisture advection is forecast across much of Texas and Oklahoma,
    where surface dewpoints could increase into the 50s and 60s F. This
    would contribute to weak instability over parts of the southern
    Plains Sunday afternoon. Uncertainty exists on where the northern
    extent of the instability will be but it seems likely that enough
    instability will be in place by late Sunday afternoon for an
    isolated severe threat in parts of central and north Texas. As the
    system moves eastward across the Southeast from Monday to Wednesday, thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day from the
    central Gulf Coast to the Florida Peninsula. The best chance for an
    isolated severe threat would be on Wednesday over the Florida
    Peninsula where an unstable airmass is forecast as the trough
    passes.

    ..Broyles.. 11/11/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Nov 13 10:02:16 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 131002
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 131000

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0400 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

    Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    The upper trough across the TX Gulf Coast is forecast to continue
    eastward and weaken as ridging intensifies over the central US. The
    strong surface response to the building ridge (1030-1035 mb) will
    favor cool, dry and stable offshore flow over much of the CONUS.
    Thunderstorms will likely be confined to the near-shore coastal
    waters of the Gulf through the remainder of the weekend and into
    early next week.

    ...Mid to late week...
    Ensemble guidance eventually shows the upper ridge yielding to
    increasingly strong western US troughing sometime mid to late week.
    Model solutions vary, with AINWP guidance considerably stronger and
    faster than physics-based ensembles with ejecting the deep upper
    trough and surface low D5/Tues - D7/Thur. Regardless, it appears
    likely that stronger southwesterly flow aloft will move eastward
    from the Desert Southwest into the southern Rockies and eventually
    the central US, with increasing thunderstorm chances mid to late
    week next week. The prominent high pressure over the Midwest will
    likely delay substantial moisture return, casting significant
    uncertainty on any severe potential. Predictability remains low
    through much of the forecast period.

    ..Lyons.. 11/13/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)