Forum: Unleashed

MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 3 14:34:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 031434
FFGMPD MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-031900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0933
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1033 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Areas affected...far northern Mid-Atlanitc into Northeast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 031432Z - 031900Z

SUMMARY...The threat of flash flooding will continue over far
eastern PA into NJ, southern NY into portions of southern and
central New England into the afternoon. Potential will exist for
an additional 2 to 4+ inches through 19Z before a cold front
begins to end the flash flood threat from west to east.

DISCUSSION...14Z radar imagery showed a broken axis of showers and thunderstorms extending from southern NJ into Long Island and
southeastern New England. An embedded low to mid-level vorticity
axis was located over southern ME with another weaker vorticity
max over southwestern NJ near the eastern shore of the Delaware
Bay, each associated with a relative surge in rainfall intensity,
although the vorticity max over ME is moving into a more stable
environment. Areas of flash flooding were ongoing across the
northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast with MRMS-estimated
rainfall of about 2-4 inches over the past 6-12 hours.

14Z surface observations showed a slow moving cold front extending
from central NY into east-central PA, preceded by impressive
moisture with 2.0 to 2.5 inch PW values from the PA/NJ border into southern/coastal New England, along with roughly 500-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE. Aloft, a strengthening 100+ kt jet streak was located over
northern PA into central NY, placing enhanced upper level
divergence over the northern Mid-Atlantic into southern New
England.

Areas of flash flooding are likely to continue as waves of heavier
rainfall continue to generate heavy rain over the region with
unidirectional southwesterly flow supporting areas of training at
times. Despite the relatively weak instability, high moisture will
compensate to help support hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
(locally higher possible). Some modest strengthening of the upper
level jet streak is expected through the early afternoon but
forward progression of the cold front is expected to mark the
western edge of the flash flood threat as the boundary advances
eastward into the early afternoon. Stripes of an additional 2 to 4
inches of rain (locally higher) are expected to maintain scattered
areas of flash flooding with enhanced impacts over the urban I-95
corridor.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-Lx5i9HQx5K-aH9q7PAZnENidIytkeSL_jbTdGHuMVI9gIJOtTFoiLYAPTZehvrp44ssjMFlun44KUU46iuw7MPVaqk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...BTV...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44067091 43877035 43646988 43276952 42776950
41987035 41427092 40867180 40317311 39367363
38927449 38987514 39837551 41177473 43017285
43967160

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 3 19:11:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 031911
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-040030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0934
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Areas affected...New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031908Z - 040030Z

SUMMARY...The potential for an additional 1 to 2 inches (spot max
of 3 inches) will maintain at least an isolated flash flood threat
across New England through about 00Z. Peak hourly rainfall of 1-2
inches is expected with the threat ending from west to east into
the evening.

DISCUSSION...Trends in radar imagery across the Northeast over the
past 3 hours showed weakening associated with
showers/thunderstorms over southeastern New England, while new shower/thunderstorm development was underway to the west. 1845Z
radar imagery showed a narrow axis of higher reflectivity
extending along the VT/NH border into western MA and along the
NY/CT border, just ahead of a cold front. The 18Z SPC mesoanalysis
showed MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg in place from CT into central MA,
VT/NH and western ME along with PWs that increased from 1.8 inches
near the cold front to about 2.3 inches along the coast of
southeastern New England.

The RAP forecasts the cold front to track east through New
England, clearing much of the region by 00Z. This progressive
motion should limit much of flash flood threat over the next 3-5
hours as cells are not likely to remain over any given location
for too long. However, portions of southern VT/NH into central and
western MA/CT have lowered flash flood guidance values of about 1
inch or less in an hour. Hourly flash flood guidance of up to 2
inches or higher is in place for the remaining portions of New
England. There is some potential for line segments to push out
ahead more quickly than portions to the south, setting up
alignment with the mean southwesterly steering flow and supporting
brief training. This would allow for hourly rainfall totals of 1-2
inches and potential for flash flooding. Through 00Z, additional
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected for portions of New England,
with a spot maximum total up to 3 inches possible. Isolated to
widely scattered instances of flash flooding may occur through
about 00Z, at which point the deeper moisture should have moved
out of most of the region, ending the flash flood threat.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8m6y-5s-KMrEIJYgKSV_6Y4JCm22GxxzPZBH7iwMoUriHB6PAy7FRT1Rq5B5_ES1sj24Ax82Mt8aBJyt8cvndUEur3Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...BTV...CAR...GYX...OKX...

ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45797017 45686954 45196932 44116939 42537013
41457126 41117280 41127343 41367365 42107333
43427227 45127122 45647069

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 3 21:05:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 032105
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-040200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0935
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
503 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Areas affected...Southwestern New Mexico and Southeastern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032103Z - 040200Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms have formed across portions of
southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. These storms
could produce up to 1.5 inch/hour rainfall rates over flood-prone
areas, which could lead to flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Storms associated with the ongoing summer monsoon
have developed over southwestern New Mexico and southeastern
Arizona this afternoon. These storms have formed over
flood-sensitive areas, especially local burn scars and slot
canyons. Flash flooding will be possible where heavy rains occur
over those flood-sensitive areas.

SPC Mesoanalysis shows PWATs over portions of southern Arizona
west of Nogales over 1.5 inches, with over an inch PWATs over all
but far northern portions of the discussion area. The storms have
a history of producing rainfall rates over an inch per hour. Given
the daily storms that have formed and tracked over these flood
sensitive areas over the past several days, soils remain sensitive
to additional rainfall. Instability values in the area are between
1,000 and 2,000 J/kg of MUCAPE, except along the immediate Mexican
border areas from Nogales east, where instability is a bit higher
than 2,000 J/kg. This instability should more than supper
additional thunderstorm development over these areas of extreme
southeastern Arizona where 1-hr FFG values are between 1 and 1.5
inches.

CAMs guidance suggests the storms will continue forming in
clusters and individual cells across the discussion area for the
rest of the afternoon. The typical waning of thunderstorm activity
with the loss of daytime heating will once again end the flash
flooding threat.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-WRbvv-GAjG7YOH51iopfmmdSS-uSS8mn8UN0ast7EmUUtyfOT3rMBYeZZG46zbPZ73Hg0ZzvZFGDmTaxC1dX4LzzjI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34470879 34340773 34120703 33320752 32570773
31930831 31330845 31321129 31771255 32551187
32931130 33181092 33671069 34061052 34231069
34421008

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 3 21:41:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 032141
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-040300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0936
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
540 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Areas affected...Coastal Carolinas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032139Z - 040300Z

SUMMARY...A few clusters of storms developing just inland from the
coast of the Carolinas have a history of producing rainfall rates
to 3 inches/hour. Flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of storms have developed along the sea
breeze front in the coastal Carolinas this afternoon. These storms
have a history of producing rainfall rates to 3 inches per hour
based on radar estimates. FFGs are generally between 2 and 3
inches per hour, so these storms have been at times exceeding
those values, so flash flooding is possible. The areas where these
values have been the most greatly exceeded is where cell mergers
with the clusters have resulted in abnormally long periods of
heavy rain, so most areas have stayed below these FFG thresholds
so far. However, given much of the coast is urbanized to some
extent, local flash flooding thresholds could be lower.

This area has been hit repeatedly over the past few days with
afternoon thunderstorms, so NASA Sport imagery shows surface soils
are significantly wetter than normal in some spots.
Meteorologically, the storms are forming ahead of a shortwave
trough over the Southeast, with a front stuck near the mountains.
The primary forcing for these storms is sea breeze and frictional
convergence due to southerly winds along the coast. As on past
days, PWATs are very high, generally between 2.2 and 2.4 inches
from SPC Mesoanalysis, leading to MUCAPE values between 2,000 and
3,000 J/kg. These factors should continue to support additional
thunderstorm development through the afternoon.

CAMs guidance shows most of the strongest storm activity staying
off the coast, which has not been the case so far. Meanwhile, most
of them showing the current convection, all of them underdone,
pretty quickly dissipating over the next couple hours. Seeing no
reason why the storms should largely dissipate into showers, have
opted towards a persistence forecast in this area considering the
pattern over the past several days has supported it. Urban and
small stream flash flooding is possible in areas further inland
such as Augusta and Columbia where more widely scattered, but
nonetheless heavy rain capable storms have been forming.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_fFXq7LjF9IOcOzpHpfLx_yTUAN2NJ1yRbowptvwVgTaSP1srLYNmWqXT70lmCXzFpxoHcPJdQXDG2xnpBXn_1Kr68g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35107868 34937793 34717635 32477966 32048079
32338106 32598126 32998172 33378213 33708245
33978191 34538089 34917962

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 4 15:16:18 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 041516
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-042114-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0937
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1115 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Areas affected...portions of Georgia, far southwestern North
Carolina, far southeastern Tennessee, and upstate South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041514Z - 042114Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with isolated/localized flash flood
potential will gradually increase in coverage and intensity
through the afternoon hours (21Z/5p eastern).

Discussion...Deep convection has recently materialized over/near
the Atlanta area, with more isolated activity noted across
northern Georgia and the Chattanooga, TN area. The storms were
developing beneath a nearly stationary upper low centered over
northern GA, with thermodynamic characteristics (1500 J/kg MLCAPE,
1.8 inch PW values) supporting heavy rainfall with the developing
activity. Abundant towering cumulus via satellite imagery
suggests that convection will gradually increase in coverage over
the next couple hours, with areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates
becoming common -- primary due to very weak steering flow aloft
and slow convective cell movement.

Models/CAMS also support the expected evolution of this activity
(increasing convective coverage). Hourly FFG thresholds are
relatively high across central GA (around 2+ inch/hr), but
decrease with northward extent into southeastern TN and the
southern Appalachians where 1.5 inch/hr is more common. Flash
flood potential will be slightly higher where lower FFG thresholds
are present, while urban excessive runoff cannot be ruled out
(particularly near Atlanta Metro).

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7KADVSQMqNOo7DiGOG1tAX2qJFF5Ue0jt0Teaxk2Rp6lkfvbqXNzq09NVqQkZRFAUYlVfBTNxxGQ3lMpdVUD_SX45lc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35978289 35098231 33388299 32918494 34578545
35568472

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 4 17:40:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 041740
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-042338-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0938
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
139 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Areas affected...Much of North Carolina into Southern Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041738Z - 042338Z

Summary...A few instances of flash flooding are possible through
23z/7pm EDT.

Discussion...Radar shows increasing coverage of showers and
thunderstorms across North Carolina into southern Virginia. 1-2
inch hourly rainfall rates are occurring on an isolated basis in
cells forming in this general region -- highest near Fayetteville.
The convection was increasing due to a number of factors,
including: 1) increasing instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) from
surface heating, 2) ascent from weak mid-level shortwave troughs
just downstream of an upper low over Georgia, and 3) Moist
southerly flow emanating from the Gulf Stream, which was
maintaining 1.5-2.4 inch PW values into a stationary front
extending from near Richmond, VA west-southwest to near Asheville,
NC.

Scattered convection will continue to increase in coverage, with
areas of 1-3 inch totals expected (per models/HREF) in several
areas. Locally higher amounts could be observed where cell mergers
or local training materializes. Model guidance indicates 20-30
percent chances for 2 inch hourly rainfall rates in North Carolina
and 30-50 percent chances in southern Virginia, with similar 3-6
hour flash flood exceedance probabilities in these respective
areas. Urban locales (i.e., Richmond to Virginia Beach) and areas
of lower FFG from central VA through western NC will be more
susceptible to flash flooding. This risk will likely exist
through at least 23Z/7p EDT.

Wilder/Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!78l-GHuzGQEpGLTv6WkPrAw0KPSg4hIhKvdiWBVvP0xGlqSxyGixOwG2-Irc5Sh8ffPxY_DEq_Uz8Xtl6ENq3m9BwpI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...LWX...MHX...MRX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37917811 37387629 36597614 35887705 35407834
34937946 35228212 35758253 36568148 37347985

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 4 21:08:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 042108
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-050240-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0939
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
507 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Areas affected...southwestern NM into southeastern/southern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042106Z - 050240Z

Summary...Increasing thunderstorm coverage across southwestern NM
into southeastern AZ through the evening and early overnight may
result in a few areas of flash flooding. Hourly rainfall totals of
1-2 inches and sub-hourly rains of 0.5 to 1.0 inches in 15-30
minutes are expected through 03Z.

Discussion...2045Z visible satellite imagery showed monsoonal
convection underway across the higher terrain of southwestern NM
into southeastern AZ. Water vapor imagery showed the center of a
west-east elongated mid to upper-level ridge over south-central AZ
into NM, with deeper layer mean flow from the E to ENE across the
south-central AZ/NM border into northern MX. PW values across
western NM into eastern AZ were average to slightly above average
for this time of year (per blended TPW imagery) and mostly clear
skies through the mid-afternoon have contributed to 500 to 1500+
J/kg MLCAPE across southeastern AZ into far southwestern NM via
20Z SPC mesoanalysis data, with higher instability in excess of
2000 J/kg with southward extent into northern MX.

Expectations are for thunderstorms to continue forming along the
higher terrain of southwestern NM into eastern AZ over the next
few hours, with an eventual movement toward the west and southwest
into the lower deserts and eventually portions of the I-10 and
I-19 corridors which have greater instability. While some slow
cell movement may be observed early on in the storm life cycle,
individual cell speeds of 10 to 20 kt are expected as one nears
the US/MX border due to the presence of 20-35 kt of easterly 500
mb winds over southern AZ into northern MX on the south side of
the ridge axis. Rainfall rate potential will be for 1 to 2 inches
in an hour but also high sub-hourly totals of 0.5 to 1 inch in
15-30 minutes.

Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase through 00Z
across the mountains of southeastern AZ into northern MX (per
recent HRRR/RRFS runs), with these cells generally moving from
east to west. Outflow development within the dry sub-cloud layer
should contribute to eventual merging and clustering of cells with
movement toward the west. As this occurs, locally enhanced rain
rates of 1-2 inches per hour are expected but with much of the
heaviest rain falling in the sub-hourly time frame. These intense
rainfall rates may produce a few areas of flash flooding through
03Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4AKAOQd4a6mh9rV27f27afd6zu8KmKZYZQmgBN3vyOCB-eznwNF0QSAt_nYjeYisZmeOGnHnzEpyZgbGVWCSlgp6zZw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34671088 34440963 33560823 32640746 31850739
31510796 31110837 31071013 31121107 31481175
32271168 32891146 33881154

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 4 23:55:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 042355
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-050330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0940
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
754 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Areas affected...far southern VA into central/east-central NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042353Z - 050330Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flood potential will exist across far
southern VA into central/east-central NC for another 2-4 hours. An
additional 2-4 inches of rain will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 2340Z showed lingering
convection along the central VA/NC border into portions of central
NC. Satellite and radar imagery showed an outflow boundary
tracking southward into northern NC, associated with locally
heavier rainfall of 1-2 inches per hour. Farther south, scattered
showers were noted in the vicinity of a mid-level vorticity max
centered roughly between Raleigh-Durham and Rocky Mount,
NC...tracking slowly north to northwest. SPC mesoanalysis data
from 23Z estimated MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg in place across the
region but high PWs of 2.2 to 2.5 inches also remained, supporting
high short term rainfall rates.

While the overall trend in convective vigor appears to be down
with the loss of daytime heating, it seems widely scattered
instances of higher rainfall rate potential (1 to 3 in/hr) will
remain from the VA/NC border into central/east-central NC for
another 2-4 hours as the vorticity max continues to interact with
convectively driven mesoscale outflows. An additional 2-4 inches
of rain will be possible through ~03Z, but these higher totals are
expected to remain isolated/localized in coverage.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5zd4Cc_yZnrZ_YNDnuNRpl-QfhuACMPKwKvV-B_loSdZ98UgW7aDhuQxS9WvaLkNyCuzQcBfVur6839lGIxiVh39sHQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36817776 36627689 35717707 35137890 35367990
35837997 36197959 36467880

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 5 00:31:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 050031
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-050400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0941
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
830 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Areas affected...northern MO/southern IA into western IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050029Z - 050400Z

SUMMARY...A relatively narrow axis of flash flooding will be
possible across northern MO, far southern IA into western IL
through 04Z. Peak rainfall totals of 2-4 inches (locally higher)
are expected.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 0015Z showed a few slow moving
thunderstorms located along a cold to quasi-stationary front
across northern MO. These cells were slow moving within a weakness
in the steering flow and tracking parallel to the boundary aligned
from west to east, supporting peak MRMS-derived hourly rainfall
locally in the 2-3 inch range over the past 1-2 hours. MLCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg and PWs just near 2 inches were estimated by the
00Z SPC mesoanalysis across the region, supporting high rain rates
beneath modestly diffluent flow aloft. To the west of this axis of
slow moving cells was a forward propagating and loosely organized
cluster of thunderstorms along the west-central IA/MO border.

The forward propagating cluster is expected to maintain a west to
east track in the short term. Given the orientation of the
initiating boundary/front aligned with the mean wind and available
instability, it seems plausible that hourly rainfall rates of 1-3
inches in an hour will continue along a relatively narrow axis
from northern MO into far southern IA and western IL over the next
3-4 hours. These high rates from slow movement or training of
cells may result in flash flooding with potential for an
additional 2-4 inches of rain (locally higher) through 04Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!59xWB8QhBVmeEa7EEfjFVzmZijgANAV96YvXpiIgc3mFPqeUyGirJHO8RKvoqVbu0D638Pp7V7t2DN9cedI9vzOsVOg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41129066 40889009 40339019 39999093 39789272
40039414 40779407 40979371 41109207

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 5 02:41:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 050240
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-050615-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0942
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1040 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Areas affected...far southwestern NM into southeastern/southern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050238Z - 050615Z

Summary...Flash flooding will remain possible for another few
hours from the NM Bootheel westward into far southeastern AZ.
Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches will be likely and localized storm
totals over 2 inches will be possible.

Discussion...02Z satellite and radar imagery showed scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms over the Bootheel of NM into
Cochise and Graham counties, with an overall movement toward the
west on convective outflow. Overlap of convection with a personal
weather station in northern Cochise County showed 0.64 inches of
rain in 15 minutes ending at 02Z, an example of the high short
term rates with the ongoing activity. Additional cells were noted
south of the border into Mexico where SPC mesoanalysis showed
MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg, falling off sharply with northward
extent into southeastern AZ along with increasing CIN with
northward extent. PW values have increased a little since the
mid-afternoon, remaining slightly above average for early August.

As the cells from Mexico and far southern AZ/NM continue to
advance downstream toward the west, congealing into a compact
convective cluster is expected with motion following Corfidi
vectors generally toward the west at a progressive pace. However,
there is good model agreement from the HRRR/RRFS and recent runs
of the WoFS to support a localized flash flood concern over the
next 3-4 hours evolving westward from the southern AZ/NM border
into remaining portions of southern Cochise County and Santa Cruz
County, possibly extending into eastern/central Pima County
overnight.

The 23Z-02Z WoFS has been consistent with high probabilities
(70-90+ percent) of 1+ inches across southern Hidalgo into
southern Cochise and Santa Cruz counties through 06Z. Also of note
is the 90th percentile shows 2-4 inches for southern Cochise
County for the same time period, representative of potential spot
maxima. While the threat looks to stay south of the Tucson metro,
a localized flash flood threat will remain for mainly southern
portions of the MPD threat area through 06Z, at which point the
threat of high rain rates appears to shift primarily south of the
border.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8qo6y5sKRcE-KIsO4RzqG_1gxxgQ674rVgw_eWJHthMracitsdcBJedkKjlwAgtOAsdHVXZiN71g9ZafUfyrq7u2CVI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32380998 32260848 31690802 31330801 31140831
31111054 31311203 31701262 32091259 32321170

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 5 05:16:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 050516
FFGMPD
IAZ000-NEZ000-051100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0943
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
115 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...SE Nebraska...SW to Central Iowa...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050515Z - 051100Z

SUMMARY...Favorable back-building repeating environment for
elevated thunderstorms overnight. Hourly rates of 1.5-2"/hr
probable to support streaks of 2-4" totals and possible incidents
of flash flooding through late overnight period.

DISCUSSION...Environment is starting to recover well with return
moisture, instability advection from strengthening and broaden LLJ
(25-30kts) in the wake of the initial convective cluster/complex
that continues but is weakening as it enters western IL. While
the surface low and front remain well south in central KS into
northern MO; the 850-700mb frontal zone is sharpening/steepening
in advance of approaching broad larger scale trough over the
Higher Northern and Central Plains as well as the nose of a
70-90kt 250mb jet core out of WY. Diffluence over the Missouri
Valley and the dPVA aloft has aided the strengthening of the LLJ
and FGEN from central NEB through central IA. As the LLJ
slows/broadens at the 850-700mb front, speed and therefore
moisture convergence can overcome the slowly degrading MUCINH and
exploit the steeper lapse rates aloft and therefore pool of
1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE from the western edge of the LLJ axis
across central KS to south-central NEB eastward.
As such, RADAR/GOES-E 3.9um has seen broad area of agitated Cu
grow and cool to scattered CBs across E NEB and SW IA.

CIRA LPW and RAP analysis denotes ample moisture pooled between
the surface and 850mb front across NE KS into SW IA will support
some modest rainfall efficiency as the convective complex
develops/expands across the area over the next few hours. A few
cells are broad enough at this point to support 1-1.5"/hr rates
but this is expected to increase as the larger scale forcing
further helps flux convergence, eventually supporting 1.75-2"/hr
rates. The upper level flow is fairly solid but slightly veered
through the low-level steering from SW to W across 700-400mb,
especially as the preceding wave is helping to flatten 500-1000mb
thickness pattern for a favorable propagation more due east to
promote west to east training/ repeating steering profile. The
more concerning factor is the convective generation point appears
to be stationary or even slightly retrograding over the next few
hours across SE NEB as the approaching jet/dPVA further expands
allowing for a favorable back-building environment. This will
support a longer duration of training especially closer to the source/development point in SE NEB/SW IA.

Spots of 2-4" are probable and may result in localized flash
flooding conditions. There are Hi-Res CAMs even supportive of
higher values in the 5"+ range and this remains a viable
possibility, though these are the traditionally hotter solutions
of the RRFS/NAM-Nest and FV3-LAM, but the setup would not be too
surprising if this were to manifest through 12z, but confidence is
not quite high enough given higher FFG to consider broader areas
of flash flooding likely; but it is close. At this point will
hold off and keep the consideration for flash flooding as
possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-FmUlig2A4m2GQHm1WfbULYorEhYwRz6nDw_-lfPthQ255VG-mrJyZENdAQiUCV4J1vatMa-4KXc-kxqzs0DWC-XpdA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42469355 42239298 41809258 41419243 41039247
40639285 40609353 40629466 40629567 40629648
40669723 41149734 41569699 41969595 42379434

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 5 05:50:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 050550
FFGMPD
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-051145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0944
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
149 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...Much of Maryland...DC...Delaware...Northern
Virginia...Eastern West Virginia Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050550Z - 051145Z

SUMMARY...Narrow but highly efficient/focused slow moving showers
capable of 1.5-2"/hr and focused 2-3"+ totals may result in widely
scattered localized incidents of flash flooding through early
morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a classic comma head closed
low over the southern to central Appalachians with broadening
downshear deformation shield of mid to upper-clouds. Embedded
within is a weak 'warm-sector' shortwave over northern VA starting
to shear/shift northeast within the anticyclonic ridge of the mid
to upper-level jet entrance toward the northeast. Deep layer
warm-advection just advance and trailing the wave can be seen very
well in deep layer moisture fields with back-arched nose of
enhanced 2-2.3" Total PWats from the Blue Ridge of N VA extending
southwest into south-central VA. VWP show broad cyclonic curvature
into the effective TROWAL for solid moisture convergence axis in
the vicinity of I-95 and west. A wedge of 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE
exists from I-95 east across S MD into the southern Delmarva.

So while winds and instability is weak, it is sufficient in a high
potential vorticity environment at the confluence of a broad WAA
regime. Scattered narrow updraft cells are starting to break out
across central to northern VA. Deep warm cloud layer (15Kft+) and
ample moisture support efficient tropical rain-showers with rates
of 1.5-2"/hr. This setup has been consistent with good
historical track record for heavy rainfall production though there
is a bit greater deep layer speed than the prior day or so across
S VA/E NC; so residency may be a bit less than those areas.
However, given proximity to the slow moving deep layer deformation
zone across the region; cells should slow and occasionally pause
to allow for spots of 2-3" possible this morning. Given proximity
to the Washington Baltimore urban corridor, these showers while
very local are prone for localized flash flooding concerns if they
intersect the right area(s), this includes the foothills and peaks
of the Blue Ridge and eastern ridges of the Appalachians which may
have additional low level/upslope support. As such, widely
scattered, localized flash flooding is considered possible through
daybreak.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8Aas9thOp771ttjlKPscsHROKR8rJQ2GnKESRv9PftuqTnXRm3r05nI22DkPGqnVNXltJySNpIfIKvZ4znBP-KW4T1k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39667742 39667651 39657568 39067530 38627508
38237516 37907561 37757715 37777791 38067861
38577890 39317879 39657830

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 5 10:56:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 051056
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-051554-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0945
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
655 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...southern Iowa, northern Missouri, far western
Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051054Z - 051554Z

Summary...An MCS with training convection will persist for a few
more hours this morning, posing an isolated flash flood risk.

Discussion...Training convection has materialized in earnest
generally along an axis between US 34 and the IA/MO border.
Within this axis, areas of 1.5-2 inch/hr rain rates were locally
exceeding FFG in spots, posing an isolated flash flood risk. The
storms were located on the nose of 25-35 kt 850mb flow centered
over eastern KS and northwestern MO, with strong convergence axis
oriented parallel to steering flow aloft favoring training.

The overall scenario for flash flooding will continue for the next
couple of hours given a continued presence of elevated instability
(7C/km midlevel lapse rates) and moisture (1.8 inch PW).
Low-level flow into the axis of convective training will gradually
veer and weaken through the morning hours, eventually allowing for
storms to re-orient and perhaps lose their training character.
While some of this activity may reach western Illinois through
13-14Z, flash flood potential with eastern extent is a bit in
doubt at this time and remains contingent on the degree of
convective training.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7--HqbmklLKMyvNkBvGFGVW-LnfXzpJQ848dwdO4SzB_Ec6vIRQ4QpJrBcClMxhC649XW5tHf6cRv4TzBJEGuNwtSD8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LSX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41759444 41689174 41079069 40329069 39949150
40049439 41489554

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 5 11:24:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 051124
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-051622-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0946
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
723 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...coastal areas of North and South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051122Z - 051622Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding are possible on an isolated
basis this morning - primarily along coastal areas.

Discussion...Deep convection has remained persistent across the
Gulf Stream and near-coastal areas over the past several hours.
The storms are embedded within a moist and strongly unstable
airmass, with 2.2 inch PW and 2000 J/kg MLCAPE supporting strong
updrafts and efficient, heavy rain rates. Low-level confluence
was also supporting the ongoing convection, and with low-level
trajectories oriented inland from the Gulf Stream, recent
convection has developed just inland from the Gulf Stream with
local rates of 0.5-2 inch/hr noted near Charleston, Georgetown,
and areas just east of Wilmington. While these rates may not
cause flash flooding on a widespread basis, some concern exists
for urbanized areas, where a quick inch of rainfall from efficient
cells could result in local impacts.

Models/CAMs suggest that this threat will persist for a few hours,
with potential for 2-3 inch rainfall totals through 15Z. Flash
flooding is possible given the scenario.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8L3xfTTU9gjH5kGKbikcFUNWJt63zvAwj3ZzZXc7tB2h-WAWWxkmLbEAS0TFAw_NI42-N95wgxRUMVGErgS9tH8SYZU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34877759 34837675 34317701 33447862 32188045
32718066 33308023 34177941

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 5 16:00:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 051555
FFGMPD
IAZ000-051952-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0947
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1154 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...central/southern Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051552Z - 051952Z

Summary...Isolated instances of flash flooding remain possible
through early afternoon.

Discussion...While a lead convective complex has largely exited
the region to the southeast and weakened (now extending across
northeastern Missouri), renewed convective development has
occurred across southwestern into central Iowa over the past
couple hours. The storms are being aided by ascent associated
with a mid-level shortwave trough approaching the region from
eastern Nebraska, while SPC mesoanalyses indicate lingering steep
lapse rates (near 7 C/km) and elevated instability to support
ongoing convection. 1.9 inch PW values continue to support heavy
rainfall. Areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates have been noted near/east
of Des Moines, while other convection in southwestern Iowa is
moving toward south-central parts of the state that received 2-4
inches of rainfall this morning and currently have near-zero FFG
thresholds. Flash flooding remains possible on at least an
isolated basis through 19Z/2p central given the rainfall scenario.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7d6PkoD8ZrN1hktiKHJy6fTkm0tmjLCwodC1f9F1SaQnfoeNFr8hc7xqI36R0muAOGtTEBzpVgBJUvFEHG5K-eHhOnI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42209424 42169213 41439128 40749150 40699305
40649540 41769564

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 5 18:04:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 051803
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-052102-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0948
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
202 PM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of central/northeast MD into central New
Jersey

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051802Z - 052102Z

Summary...Local flash flood risk exists - particularly in
urban/low-lying areas along the I-95 corridor from
Washington/Baltimore through Philadelphia and Trenton.

Discussion...A broken band of shallow convection was drifting
northward at about 10-15 knots across the discussion area and
currently extends from near western sides of Baltimore
east-northeastward to near Philadelphia and Trenton. The
convection is embedded within an abundantly moist airmass (2.2+
inch PW values), leading to efficient rain rates (subhourly 0.5-1
inch totals) within the convection. Cells were currently moving
toward urban land surfaces (especially near Philadelphia/Trenton),
which should cause at least isolated excessive runoff issues in
the next 0-2 hours or so.

As this band lifts northward, it'll likely continue intensifying
due to continued surface heating/destabilization in the ambient
environment. A couple of conditional factors for an increase in
flash flood potential exists, including 1) local backbuilding and
2) any local mesocyclogenesis that may evolve as convection
interacts with a subtle remnant boundary/warm frontal feature in
the region. Either of these factors could prolong rainfall and
bump rates to 2 inches/hr. Should this conditional risk
materialize, the combination of rainfall and urban/low-lying areas
would result in an even higher risk of flash flood impacts.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_CWxtgWzFNv8WfQITykmBz4k2Pun4MhX7In6tImNA4LIjLk5-RCNXJC_YgDmfPNcRAWZdZcfnwMb1n3BriQzaRK3r-E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40677521 40437429 40177408 39757460 39297614
38987714 39527758 40147700

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 5 19:43:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 051943
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-060100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0949
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 PM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of the upper OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051939Z - 060100Z

Summary...Slow moving thunderstorms will maintain a threat for
flash flooding into the evening across portions of the Upper OH
Valley over the next 3-6 hours. High rain rates on the sub-hourly
scale will likely result in peak rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches
(locally higher) through about 00Z.

Discussion...1920Z radar imagery showed scattered thunderstorms
aligned in a SW to NE axis on the warm side of a diffuse
quasi-stationary front extending from central KY into a low over
southeastern OH, and northward along an inverted trough axis into
far western NY. The front was aligned with a slow moving mid to
upper-level shear axis on water vapor imagery with modest
divergence aloft within the right-entrance region of a 50-60 kt
upper level jet max extending northeastward from eastern OH. A
gradient existed in precipitable water values with 1.5 to 2.0
inches seen on blended TPW imagery and RAP analyses along and just
to the warm side of the front, falling back to about 0.75 inches
over northwestern OH.

low level flow was weak but aligned with the front and deeper
layer mean steering flow from the SW which is a favorable setup
for training. However, the lack of organization of cells due to
the weak shear has resulted in limited residence time for most
cells and outflow dominance. Still, the high moisture environment
has resulted in MRMS-derived rainfall of 0.5 to 1.25 inches in 15
minutes and hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, locally in excess of
2 inches, from northern KY into southern and eastern OH. With slow
movement of synoptic scale forcing over the next 6 hours, cells
will likely continue to take advantage of the 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE in place near and east of the front from KY into OH,
eventually reaching portions of western PA/WV into central WV
which tend to be more hydrologically sensitive to high rain rates.
High short term rates are expected to result in storm total
rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches on a localized basis which may result
in a few areas of flash flooding through 01Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6dHgVXnvXh63Uw4o8wPNh3eLOHXMrE4t4USPvRrBe1KIbM7OzfaCzQcfxw7iOhEAPrYMWAiayCnTGLQBhLwa8w3bhMg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41678032 41487960 40137931 38528035 37588174
37508317 37828439 38438459 39178371 40148206
41108123

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 5 21:37:56 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 052137
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-060200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0950
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
536 PM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...eastern PA into central/northern NY and the NYC
metro

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052131Z - 060200Z

SUMMARY...A localized flash flood threat will remain for another
2-4 hours across portions of eastern PA into central/northern NY
and the NYC metro. High sub-hourly rainfall rates will support the
potential for 1 to 2+ inches through 02Z.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery at 2115Z continued to show scattered showers/thunderstorms extending from portions of southeastern PA
into north-central NJ, although the intensity of rainfall has
lowered compared to earlier this afternoon. Visible satellite
imagery showed a number of low level vorticity maxima embedded
within a broader axis of low level convergence that extended from
the east-central MD/PA border into central NJ, each associated
with locally heavier regions of rainfall. MLCAPE has been limited
to ~500 to 1000 J/kg along this convergence axis, but instability
has also been advecting northward in association with a weak warm
front, with PWs locally in excess of 2 inches.

While the threat for additional flash flooding appears isolated
through the evening, as the diffuse warm front continues to lift
north, weak instability (<1000 J/kg) is forecast by the RAP to
expand into northeastern PA, northern NJ and the NYC metro. Based
on earlier rainfall rates across PA into NJ, the potential will
exist for 15-minute rainfall totals of 0.5 to 1.0 inches and storm
totals of 1 to 2+ inches. Should these higher rates materialize,
heavy rainfall should remain isolated across eastern PA into
northern NJ and southern NY, but overlap with urban or otherwise
sensitive locations could result in flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-n3feBbqWHx8PkPOdSRgqa7EdKtYeyDS7mOEGfbeV_XKOdeXf933WPm_VZsgsbab3xDRbvOqFiMDQbzHYwVjGiYQgyg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41577437 41257376 40727369 40147470 39647646
39937719 40557695 41067605 41517526

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 5 22:50:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 052249
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-060445-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0951
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
648 PM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...far southwestern NM into central/southern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052247Z - 060445Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are likely to expand in coverage into
portions of southwestern NM into southeastern/south-central AZ
through the late evening. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are
expected across these portions of the Desert Southwest on a
localized basis (isolated 3 inches possible).

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite, lightning and radar imagery from
2230Z showed monsoon thunderstorms ongoing across the Mogollon Rim
into the higher terrain of western NM. Estimated instability via
the 22Z SPC mesoanalysis varied from southwestern NM across
central to southeastern AZ, but MLCAPE ranged from ~500 to 2000
J/kg. CIN remained south of the Mogollon Rim but that has been
eroding as evidenced by convective development across some of the
higher terrain of southeastern AZ.

The upper pattern is not much different than yesterday at this
time across the Desert Southwest with an elongated ridge centered
over the central AZ/NM border, however moisture values have
increased for some locations of AZ compared to this time
yesterday, especially closer to southwestern AZ where blended TPW
values showed a greater coverage of 1.6 to 2.0 inch PW values.
Thunderstorms are likely to continue expanding in coverage due to
rain-cooled outflow and new development along terrain features
over the next 2-4 hours. Increasing coverage, especially across
southeastern AZ, should lead to merging and clustering of cells
with westward propagation following the mean steering flow into
the low level easterlies currently in place across southern AZ.
There remains uncertainty with the convective coverage across
central to south-central AZ due to lingering CIN but storm driven
outflow may be enough to overcome the inhibition in some areas.

Despite an expected evolution toward progressive cell motions
toward the west, the environment will be supportive of 0.5 to 1.0
inches of rain in 15-30 minutes and 1-2 inches in an hour. Peak
storm totals are likely to be in the 1-2 inch range, but isolated
2 to 3 inch totals cannot be ruled out through ~05Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-VTDNKnG0wyVN45xuHIaH4EjhPtFJ-O3Vy6tBkBjSB2UVb5rRAKBhiHe3J4x_jDmrco2Kxv9Heut9JqRzSb5Bqk_J5s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35311157 34911079 33960944 33230805 32540786
32030792 31140833 30941050 31151159 31751241
32871272 33721270 34551261 35041232

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 6 01:02:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 060102
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-060600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0952
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...WV, MD Panhandle into western PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060100Z - 060600Z

SUMMARY...An isolated flash flood threat will linger across
portions of WV into the MD Panhandle and western PA for another
3-5 hours. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches and peak additional
rainfall totals of 1-3 inches are expected.

DISCUSSION...0045Z radar imagery showed an axis of scattered
showers and thunderstorms extending from central WV into western
PA, within a zone of weak low level confluence. While mid-level
lapse rates were poor (5.5 to less than 6.0 C/km), a high low
level moisture environment was contributing to pockets of 500-1500
J/kg MLCAPE where rain has not significantly cooled surface
temperatures (per SPC mesoanalysis data from 00Z). Precipitable
water values of ~1.5 to 2.0 inches will continue to support high
sub-hourly rainfall rates of about 0.5 to 1.0 inches in 15-30
minutes and 1-2 inches in an hour. Unidirectional southwest flow
remains beneath weakening right-entrance upper jet support which
may continue to aid with lift to some degree over the next few
hours. Therefore, despite sunset and cooling of the boundary
layer, some degree of instability is expected to remain for
another 3-5 hours to support additional but localized heavy rain
and flash flood potential from WV into western PA. Additional
storm total rainfall of 1-3 inches is expected through 06Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6_jPxcESX9kqzGiJk8uQ2cLg_F5b0h6Ateze1ATxKmjVXeFYgIsb6KObAsBxHo76CzSVmhfKZ3SWOO1STnAsOAa6fbc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42077862 41887796 41027791 39917811 38637923
38078007 37858092 38068191 38438200 39298090
40098021 41707940 41967915

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 6 01:52:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 060152
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-060745-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0953
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
951 PM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...eastern KS into MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060150Z - 060745Z

SUMMARY...Areas of training and repeating thunderstorms are
expected to focus across eastern KS into central MO by 06Z. Hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will contribute to 2 to 4 inch totals
through 08Z (locally higher rates/totals), along with possible
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...01Z surface observations showed a quasi-stationary
front extending from northern IL through northern MO into eastern
and southern KS/northern OK. Largely elevated showers and
thunderstorms were ongoing over northern portions of MO where
MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg was in place via the 00Z TOP sounding and
01Z SPC mesoanalysis. Additional thunderstorms had recently
developed about 40-50 miles east of Wichita, KS. Of particular
note was that the region has increased moisture compared to 24
hours ago with PWs of 1.6 to 2.0 inches extending along a broad
region from eastern KS into MO and IL. Aloft, flow was diffluent
across the lower Plains into the mid-MS Valley, located at the
base of a broad mid to upper level trough in place across the
north-central U.S.

Forecasts from the RAP show the low level jet increasing from the
south overnight through 06Z, represented by 25-35 kt at 850 mb
from central KS into central MO. Convergence at the nose of the
low level jet will help to focus a west-east zone of thunderstorms
beneath the diffluent flow aloft. There could be several axes of training/repeating thunderstorms that develop. The environment
will be supportive of hourly rainfall between 1-2 inches and
totals of 2 to 4 inches by 08Z (locally higher rates/totals
possible). Forecast veering of the low level jet after 06Z and
clustering of thunderstorms may shift the focus of heavier
rainfall out of KS into MO, though some uncertainty exists for
when the flash flood threat will end across KS. A mixture of above
and below average rainfall was in place across eastern KS into MO
over the past week, along with varying flash flood guidance
values. Therefore, given uncertainty in exactly where the heaviest
rainfall will setup, the threat is considered possible over likely
at this time.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-oJIY9W-QjTGnq_QakKd8lmWu9gpUJPA4GFSj_WyZ92o7k-BfTJMxbYIGXcFMxnWE6LNJUrpTtxWLk1VxLt0Go2fZAA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40289436 40259307 39709159 39069097 38459099
37789161 37449363 37369567 37749762 39229764
39959575

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 6 04:39:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 060438
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-060900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0954
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1236 AM EDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Areas affected...Southern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060435Z - 060900Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the
overnight hours as a shortwave drops southwest towards Mexico.
Slow moving storms with hourly rainfall up to 1.5" could cause
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E IR satellite this evening shows rapidly
cooling cloud tops across far southeast AZ coincident with
deepening convection noted in the regional radar mosaic. These
storms are developing downstream of a weak shortwave impulse
evident in WV imagery rotating W/SW around the base of the monsoon
ridge, with subsequent convective development occurring along
storm mergers and outflow boundaries. The environment across
southern AZ remains extremely favorable for heavy rain, with PWs
measured by GPS and the 00Z U/A soundings around 1.5 inches
overlapped with impressive MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms
this evening have produced MRMS hourly rainfall as much as 1.5
inches, and these rates are likely to continue for a few more
hours.

Despite the slow loss of daytime heating combined with increasing
convective overturning, the high-res CAMs suggest at least a few
more hours of heavy rain likely within this activity. The
southwest motion of the shortwave will place it more favorably
atop robust thermodynamics, and within a pocket of 20-25 kts shear
to help organize thunderstorms into clusters and multicells. This
will additionally enhance the rain rate potential, which is
reflected by both HREF and REFS neighborhood probabilities for
1"/hr that remain above 40% through around 08Z, with similar
evolution noted in the hourly rainfall from the UA WRF. While the
general trend should be for these cells to drift SW on mean 0-6km
winds of around 5 kts, locally slower or chaotic motion is
possible at times through mergers/collisions which could produce
as much as 2-3" of rain in isolated locations.

While intensity should begin to wane in the next few hours, this
area of southeast AZ has been wet recently as reflected by 7-day
rainfall departures that are as much as 300-400% of normal. This
makes the already vulnerable region (due to sensitive features
such as dry washes or burn scars) even more susceptible to runoff
impacts. This is reflected by lowering, but still notable, FFG
exceedance probabilities through 09Z before convection wanes more
rapidly, suggesting the flash flood potential will continue for
several more hours tonight.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-znro9JmXPXRX3a5X-ztPM4mEOa9q0HaXtZ0RKnLp3YX3pbptufj2wmTVIRddJxqMS3ok743ehThsvpq5c6eN5dgJMM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32551089 32480996 32230915 31970875 31700858
31360865 31180909 31141041 31321162 31651298
32131361 32451338 32371261 32441180

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 6 07:48:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 060747
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-061300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0955
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Areas affected...Far Eastern Kansas through much of Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060745Z - 061300Z

Summary...Widespread showers and thunderstorms will persist and
repeat from eastern Kansas through Missouri overnight. Rainfall
rates of 1-2"/hr are likely, leading to 2-4" of rain with locally
higher amounts. This may cause flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic tonight shows a broad area
of widespread, but relatively unfocused, thunderstorms stretching
from far eastern Kansas to northeast Missouri. This convection is
forming immediately downstream of a mid-level trough axis
approaching from the Central Plains (through which a weak,
convectively enhanced shortwave has developed over eastern KS)
with additional ascent provided through the RRQ of a jet streak
arcing poleward into the Great Lakes. In the lower levels,
regional VWPs indicate the LLJ at 850mb has increased to 25-30 kts
with some local S/SW backing helping to promote increased
thermodynamic advection. This is materializing as an overlap of
PWs over 2 inches (in convection, 1.6 - 1.8 inches otherwise) with
MUCAPE above 1500 J/kg.

Hourly MRMS rainfall within ongoing activity has been as high as
1.75", but the development thus far has been scattered and
disorganized. This is likely due to modest LLJ intensity thus far,
as well as a lack of overlap between the convergent nose of this
LLJ, which is oriented more E-W, and the accompanying stationary
front which is aligned more NE-SW. However, as the shortwave
approaches from the west, the LLJ should accelerate and subtly
back to force 850mb convergence to be more aligned with the
surface boundary. As that occurs, more cohesive ascent is expected
leading to more organized convection which may becomes an MCS or
rounds of multi-cells within increased 25-35kt bulk shear. During
this time, rain rates are likely to intensify as well, which is
reflected by HREF neighborhood probabilities peaking over 40% for
2"/hr, and supported by HRRR 15-min rainfall that may reach 1"
(brief 4"/hr rain rates.)

Mean 0-6km winds will generally remain progressive at 20-25 kts
from west to east, but this should align generally parallel to the
convergent LLJ nose to result in enhanced training of echoes.
Where multiple rounds of thunderstorms occur, total rainfall of
2-4" is likely, with locally more than 5" possible (10-15%
chance.) While this setup appears favorable for organized or
repeating enhanced rain rates, 3-hr FFG is generally high (2.5-3")
and individual cells will be progressive. For this reason, the
threat remains possible rather than likely, with training driving
the greater risk overnight.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-94ZxznreIM2Eb8jNXErvyYplFIbQv-vApeU-yRh_g7BHbxaXs4A9Oe3ro35Zehyo76gty3aIW4Gq38rK7ptipWfB6s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...OAX...PAH...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40429419 40219262 39659103 38709000 38168985
37808995 37559050 37449149 37859418 38329606
38999658 39909583

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 6 19:52:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 061951
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-070120-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0956
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Areas affected...portions of the central Appalachians into the
Northeast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061950Z - 070120Z

Summary...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected across
portions of the central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic into the
Northeast through the early evening. Isolated flash flooding will
be possible from hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches. Impacts will be
greatest across any urban locations or where recent heavy rainfall
has increased soil moisture.

Discussion...1930Z radar imagery showed widely scattered
thunderstorms extending from the central Appalachians into
portions of eastern PA and southern NY with an average movement
toward the northeast at 15-25 kt. Much of the Mid-Atlantic into
the Northeast contained PWs near 2 inches and 1500-2500 J/kg
MLCAPE with virtually no inhibition according to the 19Z SPC
mesoanalysis. However, other than terrain and a lee trough (which
extended from the Catskills down into VA near the Blue Ridge
Mountains), forcing for ascent was not notable to focus any
particular region over another.

Despite the weak forcing, the broad region of ample instability
should play a role in additional storm development as they move
eastward over the next several hours. While sufficient shear
exists for organized cells, most storms should be multi-cellular
or pulse in nature with outflows contributing to additional storm
evolution.

The flash flood threat is broad but appears it will remain
isolated in coverage. The greatest impacts will likely occur where
higher rainfall rates can overlap with urban or otherwise
sensitive locations...such as those that received heavy rain over
the past week. Total rainfall from these storms should be capped
at/near 3 inches, but the majority of cells will produce 1-2
inches, with some areas not getting any rainfall through 01Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7Taqg9iD3MSrcExtQdVkR6fmeHssUGX7sdjDVEG9SPv_9jwpXHQDPF3chVnPLHVXrDdMxqDmUb1TYSlaOhcVik8i_tY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42677520 42647446 42457405 42327375 41647354
41187360 40357418 39427555 38507784 37057936
37068000 37508017 38557968 40787760 41687690
42337631

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 6 20:45:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 062045
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-070230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0957
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
444 PM EDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Areas affected...southern NM into far western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062043Z - 070230Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible through the
remainder of the afternoon into the early evening across portions
of southern NM into far western TX. Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0
inches in 15-30 minutes will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery at 2020Z showed the early
stages of convective development along the Sacramento Mountains
along with a mid-level vorticity max/remnant MCV in central Otero
County. The vorticity max may be providing increased low level
convergence into a portion of the Sacramento Mountains with
area-wide PW values over 1 inch, an increase of 0.1 to 0.2 inches
compared to 24 hours ago via blended TPW imagery. Instability was
estimated to be 500-1000 J/kg via SPC mesoanalysis data and the
18Z soundings from ABQ and EPZ.

The larger scale pattern featured a mid to upper-level ridge
centered across AZ, extending eastward across NM and westward
toward southern CA into NV. The upper ridge placement/orientation
results in very weak deeper layer steering flow (average of 5 kt).
Expectations are for thunderstorms to continue along the terrain
and following the weak mean steering flow toward the south over
time. In addition to the slow movement, there could be cell
mergers and very brief training to support locally higher rates
approaching 2 inches in an hour, but the sub-hourly rain rates
should be the main driver of the flash flood threat with 0.5 to
1.0 inches expected in 15-30 minutes. A lack of shear should keep
cells fairly disorganized in nature, but proximity to a few
notable burn scars in the Sacramento Mountains is a concern for
flash flood impacts.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-J4V7d9iy8pH8STH9sx_96yPXFwPprvWM64-FRanw-1hfGIGZN0oNV7YwHUoZXmIxI4qbWx_8cHv16QCTv42vMDk8D4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34880602 34590500 32040521 30960565 31530656
31670730 32400735 33460686

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 6 22:05:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 062205
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-070400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0958
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
604 PM EDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Areas affected...swrn MO, nrn AR into adjacent sern KS and nern
OK.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062202Z - 070400Z

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy rain with hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+
inches and storm totals of 2 to 4+ inches are expected through 04Z
across portions of southwestern MO into northern AR and adjacent
portions of southeastern KS and northeastern OK.

DISCUSSION...Local radar imagery from 2130Z showed a multi-cell
cluster of thunderstorms just to the ESE of Springfield, MO with
movement off toward the SE, but with embedded training resulting
in localized hourly rainfall amounts near 3 inches in the vicinity
of Strafford, MO (ending 2115Z). While some isolated cells existed
farther south near the MO/AR border into north-central AR, much of
the region was quiet at the moment. Surface observations revealed
a composite outflow boundary that extended from near the MO
Bootheel into north-central AR near Clinton, before curving back
toward the northwest into southwestern MO. Southwesterly low level
flow represented by 10-15 kt in the 925-850 mb layer, was
overrunning the rain-cooled outflow, helping to support activity
across southern MO into northern AR. SPC mesoanalysis data from
21Z showed PWs of 1.5 to 1.8 inches across the MOKSAROK 4-state
region along with 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE with weak to negligible
inhibition.

Expectations are for the ongoing cluster over southern MO to
continue advancing toward the southeast with time, but with
upstream development along its southwestern flank, supported by
low level flow advecting into the region. This will allow for
training potential with hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches (but
locally higher rates will remain possible). Near and beyond 00Z,
the RAP forecasts a strengthening of the low level jet from
eastern OK into southwestern MO, which may contribute to increased
convective coverage and additional small thunderstorm clusters.
Mean cluster evolution toward the south or southeast coupled with
a mean west to east motion of individual cells could support
additional training with possible areas of flash flooding through
04Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-7GHkb6L_93wd_2djvAwvvdeYAwKf-GqbKCyiu2awxKeKmqpWEkhQT-Ep_HO87SZNEo6k4Pdy5eltlKXfttuyU3xjI4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37829316 37119159 36019096 35279133 34989262
35369408 35949486 36799509 37609460

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 7 00:32:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 070032
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-070530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0959
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
831 PM EDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Areas affected...southeastern AZ into southwestern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070030Z - 070530Z

SUMMARY...A localized flash flood threat will exist across
southeastern AZ into southwestern NM through 05Z to 06Z. While
coverage looks to be isolated, locally high rainfall rates of 1 to
2 in/hr look likely at times.

DISCUSSION...0015Z visible satellite and radar imagery showed
lingering thunderstorms across the higher terrain of
eastern/southeastern AZ into southwestern NM, with some southward
development of cells over the past 1-2 hours, on and well ahead of
rain-cooled outflow. Cloud tops on infrared imagery have been
warming over the higher terrain but convective outflow looks to be
igniting additional development toward the south where MLCAPE is
estimated to be 500-1500 J/kg with little to no inhibition via the
00Z SPC mesoanalysis. In addition, PW values were similar to
yesterday (1.0 to 1.4 inches), near climatology for early August.

Isolated thunderstorm development on terrain features and storms
forming on the advancing outflow will provide a locally increased
chance for isolated flash flooding over the next 3-5 hours. Hourly
and sub-hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches appears to fit the
environment given 0-6 km AGL mean layer winds of less than 5 kt in
advance of any outflow. Even storms developing on outflow could
produce a quick 15-30 minutes of rain near 1 inch. Any flash flood
issues are expected to remain localized and beyond 05Z - 06Z,
forecast guidance suggests the bulk of any lingering convection
should be south of the border into Mexico, following a mean
northerly flow around the the east side of a mid-upper level ridge
centered over northwestern AZ.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5HmoC4fVn4rahN4ZYCjD_2y4A4ywPx9FX-AjO8HQD_8rsuu4nSD4n1nEEd-snb6qko3KCuvQxD5J3BrFir3UDmsH4io$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33810999 33790984 33740973 33650959 33530947
33450936 33420916 33410891 33360868 33260844
32900812 32120783 31430782 31130820 31050893
31110988 31281048 31941060 32861046 33381042
33611033 33751021 33801007

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 7 05:25:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 070525
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-071000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0960
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
124 AM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070523Z - 071000Z

Summary...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will expand across
eastern Kansas and then repeat through the morning. Rainfall rates
of 1-2"/hr will be common, leading to 2-4" of rain. Flash flooding
is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic tonight shows development
of thunderstorms across portions of eastern Kansas. This activity
is developing along the nose of a modest but intensifying 850mb
LLJ which has risen to 20-30 kts over southern Kansas and into
Oklahoma. This LLJ is emanating from a plume of 1.5" PWs and 2000
J/kg MUCAPE, helping to transport these robust thermodynamics
northward while concurrently isentropically ascending a stationary
front to the south. The convergence along the nose combined with
this isentropic lift is occurring within a region of mid-level
thickness diffluence to additionally enhance ascent. It is this
WAA beneath the collocated synoptic lift which is resulting in the
rapid expansion of thunderstorms during the past hour.

The high-res CAMs are in good general agreement that thunderstorms
will continue to expand and then repeat across eastern Kansas.
This will be in response to a subtle increase in the LLJ reaching
30-35 kts, while slowly veering more to the ENE. The resulting WAA
should provide sufficient thermodynamic replenishment to allow for
storms to repeatedly fire and then track slowly E/SE through the
morning. With rain rates progged to be 1-2"/hr at times (40-60%
chance of 1"+/hr from both the HREF and REFS), repeating of these
cells could cause stripes of 2-4" of rain with isolated higher
amounts possible (5-10% chance of 5 inches according to the HREF).

7-day rainfall across eastern Kansas has been quite variable, with
some areas receiving very little rainfall while others have
exceeded 200% of normal. This has resulted in a sharp gradient in
soil moisture, and 3-hr FFG that varies from as low as 1.5" to as
high as 4" (gradient from ENE to WSW). Despite this, the
likelihood of repeating heavy rain rates creates FFG exceedance
from the HREF that spikes to 20-30% later this morning, suggesting
at least an isolated flash flood risk is developing. The greatest
chance for impacts appears to be between Wichita and Topeka (in
the vicinity of Emporia and north to I-70) where the LLJ
convergence may maximize and linger, but any location that
receives repeating rounds, especially atop the more saturated
soils, could experience impacts due to flash flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7pY6b9sRqR1hrT5CYrkHtU3uhOEt5x-6mD4qWrJMh29PTaWaPidgkISdIuwGKqfmgVMxhFPXSrW-0twGBqwckTpLtf4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40039682 39609577 38999482 38129427 37329416
36819477 36749591 36849671 37329739 38159781
38839818 39539852 40029810

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 7 09:51:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 070951
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-071500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0961
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
550 AM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070949Z - 071500Z

Summary...Persistent and slow moving thunderstorms will continue
across eastern Kansas through the morning. Rainfall rates as high
as 2"/hr are likely within these storms, leading to 2-4" of rain
with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this morning shows a
continued expansion of clusters of thunderstorms positioned over
eastern Kansas. This activity has been ongoing for several hours
now, and is likely to continue well into the morning. Recent MRMS
hourly rainfall has been as much as 2" in isolated locations, with
overnight rain as much as 4" in a narrow corridor between I-35 and
I-70 west of Emporia leading to FLASH unit streamflow response as
high as 300 cfs/smi.

The setup for continued heavy rainfall is quite favorable. Forcing
for ascent continues to be driven by an 850mb LLJ that has
strengthened to 40 kts over central KS, with rapidly veering winds
between 925-700mb helping to advect this moisture (overlapped with
MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg to improve thermodynamics) into the area.
This is seen clearly on the advected LPW fields showing
convergence of the 850-700mb PW directly into the ongoing
convection. The accompanying WAA is not only converging into
850-700mb boundary, but simultaneously isentropically ascending a
stationary front just to the SW within a region of mid-level
thickness diffluence to additionally support large-scale lift.
This suggests that convection will continue well into the morning,
which is supported by high-res CAMs simulated reflectivity.

Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr are likely to continue for several more
hours as indicated by HREF and REFS neighborhood probabilities.
This will increase the flash flood risk across the area as storms
repeatedly develop within the WAA and then track E/SE. Although
individual cells should be generally progressive as propagation
vectors are above 20 kts, continued development back into the
elevated thermodynamics to the west will support
training/repeating, and the HREF indicates a 20-25% chance of
locally as much as an additional 5" of rain through late morning.
This will occur atop soils that have become saturated already by
morning rainfall, so any additional rainfall will likely quickly
become runoff, leading to an increased potential for isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7TThY2Lzw_ncSwjzyGJ_szPs-g_dpGG85dUDJxQBVZXX2jtYgKliGfJlC81UVCyZYVAwMKXQKjRmHvOBu9IgXLuqrEU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40319717 40299651 39599599 38489503 37889489
37229498 36759592 36819690 36869717 37079758
37389776 37939801 38789797 39509794 40089765

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 7 15:04:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 071504
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-072101-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0962
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1102 AM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...much of Pennsylvania, far northern West Virginia,
far southwestern New York State, western/northern Maryland

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071501Z - 072101Z

Summary...A few spots of FFG exceedance were noted just northeast
of Pittsburgh over the past couple hours. At least isolated
instances of flash flooding are possible this morning, with an increasing/expanding threat expected through the early afternoon.

Discussion...Scattered deep convection was noted primarily across
the western 1/4 of PA this morning, with more isolated storms
observed over northern WV, central OH, and far southwestern NY
state. The storms are in an abundantly moist environment (2+ inch
PW) that, when combined with modest westerly steering flow, was
fostering areas of 1-1.75 inch/hr rain rates that were locally
exceeding FFG in a few spots. The ongoing scenario should persist
for a few hours due to continued surface heating of this moist
airmass and ascent associated with a mid-level shortwave trough
approaching from Ohio. Isolated instances of flash flooding are
expected in the short term.

With time, models (particularly CAMs) depict an increase in
convective coverage through the afternoon hours particularly
focused on central PA and vicinity. This increase in convective
coverage should result in increase flash flood potential given the
high PW airmass and modest steering flow, although models also
hint at gradual upscale growth into clusters/linear segments that
might forward propagate and limit the extent (space/intensity) of
rain rates. Still, with downstream areas of central/eastern PA
having been wet from prior rainfall, instances of flash flooding
can be expected through the day on at least an isolated basis.
This threat will likely extend beyond the 21Z expiration time of
this MPD.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9qUx9r_EKkKu68gs0HL89IGbqmUcDHD6--ek4LKzmoQ341hOBetdKXr16jS0HZmWQNAfcCdBAeNpXQf_8VimDDxViBw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...LWX...PBZ...PHI...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42657839 42247627 41297545 39917576 39407742
39247979 40068077 41768004

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 7 15:25:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 071525
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-072123-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0963
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1124 AM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...southern Minnesota, northern Iowa, western
Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071523Z - 072123Z

Summary...Robust thunderstorm development over western Minnesota
will pose a flash flood risk as it spreads eastward/southeastward
across the discussion area through 21Z/4p central.

Discussion...Thunderstorms have quickly developed across western
MN and vicinity (near Willmar, Redwood Falls/west of Mankato) and
were already producing spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates per MRMS.
The storms were in a strongly unstable environment, with 7-8C/km
mid-level lapse rates, 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, and 1.5+ inch PW values
all supporting intense updrafts with heavy rainfall. Storms are
also forming ahead of a mid-level wave along the ND/MN border, and
confluence along a surface trough/front across western portions of
the discussion area was also fostering updraft development amid
modest convective inhibition.

Models/CAMs are in decent agreement that storms will continue to
expand in coverage while remaining intense with eastward
progression across southern MN/northern IA and perhaps western WI
through the afternoon. There is potential that storms evolve into clusters/lines that forward propagate, though 1.5 inch PW will
support locally heavy rainfall. FFG thresholds are in the 1.5
inch/hr range (locally lower near Minneapolis/St. Paul Metro) and
may be readily exceeded at times on at least an isolated basis.
Soil moisture data (per NASA) suggests wet soils with downstream
extent into southeastern MN and eastern IA, supporting at least an
isolated flash flood threat in those areas. This will will likely
persist through 21Z/4p central today.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7hOFcbOWSbV96q1-BgdSvu3nv-h7oBELFloglax0jlt96wxPxNhUYf97_JkEuirS2OGJ4PqgSJx6hXQIEhBaUANGDL8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DMX...DVN...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46059444 45819284 44919146 43779103 42809142
42259233 42179463 43159548 44159557 45639546

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 7 18:02:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 071801
FFGMPD
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-080000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0964
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...portions of New York, New Jersey, eastern
Pennsylvania, western Massachusetts, and western Connecticut

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 071800Z - 080000Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms in from Pennsylvania and central
New York state will eventually help prompt isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding across the discussion area through
00Z/8p eastern.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts scattered
thunderstorms across PA/NY generally from Ithaca southward through
Harrisburg and eastward to near Scranton. The storms are in an
abundantly moist airmass (near 2 inch PW), and with weak/modest
steering flow across much of the region (10-15 knots from the
WSW), local rain rates to around 2 inches/hr have been noted per
MRMS at times due to slow storm motions.

Meanwhile, the downstream airmass (encompassing much of the
discussion area) is heating up/destabilizating and will soon
support convection both 1) moving eastward from PA/NY into the
region and 2) developing across the region. Ground conditions are wet/sensitive from prior rainfall over the past few days, and
local FFGs are near zero across northern NJ and around 1 inch/hr
from central NJ through Philadelphia northward into much of
southern NY state. Areas of flash flooding are expected as storms
migrate eastward.

The overall degree of flash flood risk may depend on convective
mode -- more forward propagating convection (with upscale growth)
might limit rain rates some what. Recent radar trends are
concerning though, and suggest that a mix of lines and merging
cells can be expected, increasing local rain rates to 2 inches at
times and on an isolated to scattered basis. Flash flooding is
likely, and some concern exists for impacts to urban areas from
Philadelphia northeastward to New York City and points northward.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_lCT-DrvsqwXmxI3ya_ZKS9wYO3J7DbcnIC16ujZk0OrxGBAhGoyK9e-8Fm9wlpRzBLo5gnqUSGjgCYgKUPz6UJZLdA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BUF...CTP...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43247572 43247372 42247301 41467295 40727339
40157412 39847519 40277594 41587617 43017663

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 7 19:28:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 071927
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-080100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0965
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...OH Valley into central/southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 071925Z - 080100Z

Summary...At least isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding
are expected across portions of the OH Valley into the central
Appalachians through the early evening. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+
inches and total rainfall of 2 to 4+ inches are expected.

Discussion...19Z radar imagery across the upper OH Valley into
portions of the central Appalachians showed scattered
thunderstorms with a few regions of greater coverage. Trends over
the past 1-2 hours have shown increased coverage of storms over
southwestern OH, from eastern KY into western VA and along the
Cumberland Plateau of TN. The storms farther north were located
ahead of an advancing shortwave trough, with the right-entrance
region of a 50-60 kt upper jet max enhancing upper level
divergence across portions of the upper OH Valley. The broad
region from the OH Valley to the Appalachians contained 1500-2500
J/kg MLCAPE and modestly positive PW anomalies of +1 to +2 above
the mean.

Given speed shear was low to modest at best across the area, storm
organization should remain limited across the region but the high
moisture environment and varied storm motions ranging from ~15 kt
up north to ~5 kt down south should allow for locally higher
rainfall rates with hourly values of 1 to 2+ inches expected.
Storm mergers with related outflow interactions and subsequent
convective development could support brief areas of training as
well. While the flash flood threat doesn't appear to be
particularly focused in any given area across the OH Valley into
the central and southern Appalachians, at least a few areas of
flash flooding will be likely given flash flood guidance values
under 2 inches in 1 and 3 hours for portions of the region,
although flash flood coverage should remain limited due a lack of
larger scale forcing.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8ei3Vu7eEwx7cEY9EKWxtWelQa4XQH93sypzS1Ul3D_ENoW6RlpB8NYPVhCBfujdZ1xwR6j1AiHHhwgJrj_1gyjj-w8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...
RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40018483 39648311 39278175 39078089 38908008
38347989 37958001 37198054 36268135 34978323
34798547 36248551 37588559 38878644 39528637
40008576

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 7 20:08:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 072008
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-080200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0966
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
407 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...northwestern AZ into southwestern UT and portions
of southern/eastern NV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072005Z - 080200Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of flash flooding will be possible through
02Z from northwestern AZ into southwestern UT and portions of
southern/eastern NV. Hourly to sub-hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches
are expected.

DISCUSSION...1945Z satellite imagery showed maturing cumulus and a
few thunderstorms along portions of the higher terrain from
eastern/southern NV into southwestern UT and northwestern AZ. PW
values have increased compared to 24 hours ago over southern NV
and southwestern UT with the 18Z VEF sounding showing 1.4 inches
of precipitable water. PW values were most anomalous across
southern NV with 150 to 200 percent of normal depicted for what is
already the peak climatological max of moisture across the region.
The upper pattern showed that the center of a mid to upper level
ridge was located over southwestern UT with deeper layer steering
flow of 5 kt or less over the region.

While convective inhibition remains at this relatively early hour
outside of the terrain, expectations are for continued daytime
heating to erode remaining CIN across portions of the region with
expanding thunderstorm coverage over the next 3 hours through 23Z.
While the immediate Colorado River Valley along the NV/AZ may stay
free from thunderstorms through the early evening given
uncertainties of eroding CIN, slow movement of cells and the
anomalous moisture should support high rainfall rates with 0.5 to
1.0 inches in 15-30 minutes expected in neighboring locations and
into the Slot Canyon region of southwestern UT. Flash flooding
will be possible with storm totals generally in the 1-2 inch
range, although storm totals locally over 2 inches will be
possible.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-nQHCaNGCQ3v6Jh-fEt-4OaYdRSVRt-S3l6f1NLAVqt4dwFQd_A6Fh3XoTCFbBYScSG96ifxpTJFF42UbAGftP4862Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39051410 38871305 38511233 37851180 37491170
36911162 36431150 36051149 35571138 35221148
34941190 34821314 34701381 35171470 35351506
35801576 36521648 37181676 37821681 38241656
38631622 38851566 39011507

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 7 20:46:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 072046
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-080130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0967
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
445 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...D.C. into northeastern MD, northern DE and
southern NJ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072044Z - 080130Z

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy rain with 1 to 3+ inch totals will pose a
risk of flash flooding from D.C. through northeastern MD, northern
DE and southern NJ. The flash flood threat is expected to
translate from NW to SE through 01Z.

DISCUSSION...Area radar imagery at 2030Z showed scattered
thunderstorms advancing ESE across eastern and southeastern PA
with an outflow boundary advancing from southeastern PA into
northern MD. Out ahead, a low level confluence axis was supporting
slow moving thunderstorms from Baltimore and points north along
I-95 in northeastern MD. While the outflow is progressive toward
the southeast, convective development out ahead is aligned with
the mean steering flow from WSW to ENE or SW to NE, which should
allow for at least brief areas of training. Thunderstorms are
expected to continue advancing south and east into the northern
Mid-Atlantic over the next few hours and MLCAPE of 2000-2500 along
with PWs near 2 inches will be supportive of high rainfall rates
between 1 and 2 inches in an hour. However, where cell training
maximizes, hourly totals in 2 inches will be possible. The flash
flood threat will be greatest along the urban corridor from D.C.
to Philadelphia, with the threat advancing downstream into
portions of the northern DelMarVa Peninsula and portions of
southern NJ into the early evening hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5lxAfAXOfYW4oroDK9G0-9d8NUjBtrvIs8iPP2m3HLEvuV4nDe79WTGkAdh229hvVGQgGoKpJvQrMn7CWVasWmj6agQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40347455 40347409 39877371 38967475 38707591
38827691 39067718 39407705 39857624 40247531

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 7 21:38:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 072138
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-080330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0968
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
537 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...southern MO into northern AR and eastern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072136Z - 080330Z

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is likely across
portions of southern MO into northern AR and eastern OK through
00Z. Training of heavy rain within the expanding area of
thunderstorms is expected to allow for 2 to 4 inch totals (locally
higher) and areas of flash flooding through 03Z.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery from 2120Z showed a
well-defined MCV over western MO with isolated convective
development to its southwest over southwestern MO. Meanwhile area
radar imagery showed a SSE propagating cluster of thunderstorms
along with an MCV over south-central OK, preceded by an outflow
boundary to its south, curving northward into eastern OK, where
cloud cover from the MO MCV has contributed to a differential
heating boundary between southwestern MO and areas west and north
of the MO MCV. A smaller outflow boundary was also analyzed in the
vicinity of the Ouachita Mountains over south-central AR. The
environment to the south and east of the large
outflow/differential heating boundary contained an estimated
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and PWs of 1.8 to 2.0 inches via 21Z SPC
mesoanalysis data.

While there is likely some weak subsidence behind a smaller MCV
over north-central AR, advancement of the western MO and OK MCVs
slowly southeast will be coincident with an increase in the
southwesterly 925-850 mb winds from eastern OK into western
AR/southwestern MO into the 15-25 kt range per recent RAP
forecasts. The approaching mid-level ascent coupled with low level
overrunning beneath broadly diffluent/divergent flow aloft should
support an increase in thunderstorms from eastern OK into southern
MO and central/northern AR and over the next 2-3 hours. Individual
cells tracking from west to east are expected to focus axes of
training heavy rain with 1 to 2+ inch per hour rainfall, as the
cluster of storms tracks eastward/southeastward with time. Some
areas of flash flooding may occur as a result.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7IZMFEl4KadTsIy9nPalonlyxyIjUhwFQIQYnXGqDG3evucnsRcFWrDfdmUfz2om3bejnS7KxboZo2hM9dIphS4OUZo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37479106 37219025 36409024 35699084 35329144
34769257 34689380 35179469 36189507 37249365

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 8 00:09:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 080009
FFGMPD
NMZ000-080510-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0969
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
808 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...eastern third of NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080007Z - 080510Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding will be possible across portions
of east-central to eastern NM through about 06Z. Peak hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches can be expected in a few locations.

DISCUSSION...2335Z infrared satellite and radar imagery showed
ongoing thunderstorms across portions of the Sacramento Mountains,
northward toward about I-40. Additional, scattered thunderstorms
were located over portions of northeastern NM, to the north of
I-40 and east of I-25. An axis of estimated MLCAPE ranging from
500 to 1500 J/kg extended southwestward from the northern TX
Panhandle into east-central NM where precipitable water values of
0.8 to 1.1 inches existed, per 23Z SPC mesoanalysis data.

The northern half of NM was situated beneath the southeastern edge
of a large mid to upper-level ridge centered over southwestern UT,
with weak deeper layer steering flow from the north to northeast
of less than 10 kt. This was contributing to a few slow moving
cells but a broader outflow boundary was becoming better defined
from Torrance County, northeastward into northeastern San Miguel
County. Meanwhile, the current 15 kt VAD wind measured 850 mb wind
at KFDX is forecast to increase following the typical diurnal
cycle into the 20-25 kt range by 04Z from the northern TX/NM
border into portions of eastern NM, which should increase
overrunning and convergence along the leading edge of the outflow
boundary as it likely continues to advance S to SSE over the next
few hours. The environment will be supportive of locally high
hourly rainfall values of 1 to 1.5 inches, but with isolated
hourly totals near 2 inches possible. These high rates are
expected to affect portions of the eastern third of NM over the
next 3-5 hours. The flash flood threat will likely end from north
to south with time with isolated storm totals generally expected
to be capped in the 1 to 2 inch range (locally 2+ inch totals
possible) given an expectation for increasing forward speed with
the advancing outflow.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6kyBPOW577k_oS_aFv3fIRJE3gRFw-Svklvt7tes2iB7q9XJjqtwDQMc8Sbz-ftrF8gbohY67d5smx6LpJIFKIZdbqI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36250359 36160310 35180313 33600358 32720386
32330456 32330528 32480564 32910586 33840591
34150584 35260568 35810528 36180406

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 8 01:45:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 080143
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-080700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0970
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
941 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...eastern IN into OH/northern KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080140Z - 080700Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will be possible from parts of
eastern IN into OH and possibly northern portions of KY through
07Z. Training will support hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with
isolated totals of 2 to 4 inches.

Discussion...Radar imagery through 0115Z showed an increase in the
coverage of scattered thunderstorms over eastern IN, located just
on the cool side of a remnant outflow boundary that extended from
just northeast of Indianapolis, IN into northeastern KY. Water
vapor imagery showed an approaching shortwave trough from WI to
eastern MO, advancing eastward, with about 15-20 kt of 925-850 mb
flow in place from the OH River into central IN/OH, out ahead of
the shortwave trough. Central IN seemed to have both the high
moisture (1.8 inch PW) and notable instability (2100 J/kg MLCAPE)
seen on the ILX and ILN soundings, but ILX was drier and ILN was
more stable.

As the upstream shortwave continues to advance east over the next
6 hours, RAP guidance shows the 925-850 mb flow out ahead
increasing into the 20-30 kt range over IN/OH/northern KY. The
increasing ascent ahead of the shortwave and isentropic lift over
the remnant outflow boundary should allow for increasing
thunderstorm coverage across eastern IN into OH over the next 3-6
hours. Areas of stability currently present over southern OH due
to earlier rainfall are expected to destabilize later tonight with
the advection of low level moisture back into the region. While
850-300 mb mean layer winds are progressive from the W to WSW a
20-25 kt, the increasing low level jet of nearly a similar
orientation could support some repeating and training of any
smaller thunderstorm clusters that develop. The environment will
be supportive of hourly rainfall between 1 and 2 inches with
isolated storm totals of 2-4 inches. With much of the area
containing 3-hr flash flood guidance values of around 2 inches,
some areas of flash flooding may occur through 07Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9P7la5YcLmUEyO6YQN4o5aU3cFfnigPMnnyXFttmi3qADcsKdDMCspIPG9Qj21yd_mV9fyG5051Cjem39xIaGPjerew$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...LMK...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41748217 41298189 40688192 39428248 38668369
38588448 38698582 39268674 40298659 40978573
41348359

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 8 03:26:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 080326
FFGMPD
LAZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-080900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0971
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...Southern Missouri through far Northeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080324Z - 080900Z

Summary...Clusters of thunderstorms will continue to move slowly
across the Ozarks and towards the ArkLaTex overnight. Rainfall
rates of 1-2"/hr are expected, which through slow storm motions or
repeating cells could produce 2-3" of rain with locally higher
amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening shows multiple
clusters of thunderstorms moving slowly from southern Missouri
through far northeast Texas. This activity is developing in
response to multiple MCVs noted in radar, downstream of a more
prominent shortwave digging out of the Central Plains. These
features are driving locally enhanced ascent, with additional lift
occurring along outflows and remnant differential heating
boundaries. The thermodynamic environment across the area is
characterized by PWs around 2 inches and collocated MUCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg, to support hourly rainfall which has been measured
via MRMS to be as high as 1.5 - 2.0 inches in the past few hours.

The high-res CAMs differ in the evolution with respect to coverage
and position of convection, but nearly all solutions show at least
scattered thunderstorms with heavy rain rates continuing the next
few hours. The focus will likely be along and south of the current
MCVs as they locally enhanced ascent, while modest 25kt bulk shear
helps organize new development into additional clusters. The HREF
and REFS both indicate a 30-50% chance of at least 1"/hr rain
rates for several more hours, supported by modest 850mb inflow
resupplying the favorable thermodynamics northward into the area.
0-6km mean winds are progged to remain light at just around 5 kts,
and as the inflow veers overnight, Corfidi vectors may collapse to
support weak and chaotic storm motions, aided by boundary
collisions and storm mergers. This will create 2-3" of rain with
locally higher amounts above 4" possible

Although portions of the Ozarks of AR and MO have experienced
slightly above normal rainfall the past 7-days, much of this
region has been dry, leading to elevated 3-hr FFG that is
generally 3-4 inches. These dry antecedent conditions will likely
limit the flash flood potential overnight. However, an isolated
risk will continue for several more hours, especially where these
intense rain rates move most slowly or across any of the locally
more vulnerable soils.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9WUdpvHSnaEphrnKLG9fG6cvi7BJbOq5TSOy-55dFJITP9bEe07Jig8pclUIXkJDUE0HRWD9DiVJzmCMJxvSWrkhGgE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37729186 37529059 37079033 35919064 34199151
33729200 33339280 32809326 32619405 32899455
33219498 33789532 34769539 36229460 36929408
37449326

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 8 09:59:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 080959
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-081500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0972
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
558 AM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...Arkansas into far northern Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080957Z - 081500Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand across
southwest/south-central Arkansas through late morning. Rainfall
rates of 2"/hr are expected, which through slow storm motions
could produce 2-4" of rain with locally higher amounts. Flash
flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this morning shows a
rapid uptick in thunderstorm activity across southwest Arkansas.
This activity is blossoming rapidly downstream of an MCV evident
in the GOES-E ProxyVis satellite imagery, with the rapid growth
driving a coincident increase in LightningCast probabilities. This
suggests that convection will continue to strengthen the next few
hours, supported by an impressive overlap of PWs measured via GPS
of around 2 inches and MUCAPE of 1000 J/kg. Despite this
convection being quite fresh, hourly rainfall in excess of 1 inch
has already been measured by MRMS, additionally suggestive of the
favorable environment in place.

The high-res CAMs are struggling with this early activity, as both
the HRRR and RRFS are completely missing this new development.
However, there is a signal in both ARWs which is translating to a
reasonable solution in the HREF blended-mean QPF suggesting 2-4"
of rain with locally higher amounts above 5" possible (10-20%
chance from the HREF). This will be due to the anticipated
extremely slow movement of the convection as mean 0-6km winds
remain just around 5-10 kts.

850mb inflow is modest at just 10-15 kts as reflected by both the
SPC RAP analysis and regional VWPs. However, this is still
sufficient to drive strong convergence as it exceeds the mean wind
by almost almost double in some places. The veering of this inflow
will additionally result in Corfidi vectors becoming aligned
against the mean wind and collapsing, which will result in
backbuilding and training cells with net motion approaching 0kts
at times, lengthening the duration of heavy rainfall.

Antecedent conditions are quite dry (NASA SPoRT 0-40cm soil
moisture generally below the 10th percentile) from a lack of
recent rainfall, and 3-hr FFG is elevated at 3-4 inches. However,
the favorable setup for very slow moving storms with intense rain
rates could still overwhelm soils, at least locally, leading to
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6i0XH22n0pnAo03t-i74tSXmem3oD7mx8nuvXArQGw4Pq9xKhlzMBWdJQYzP3Pfe5XtSNv5RgCzB0yTFuTgLcqzjkeg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35799328 35589182 34759147 33959151 33299200
32869276 32639359 32809436 33699427 35439397

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 8 13:01:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 081300
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-081557-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0973
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
858 AM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...West Virginia to Central Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081257Z - 081557Z

Summary... Isolated flash flooding possible across portions of
Western Virginia to central Pennsylvania.

Discussion...Satellite shows brightening cloud tops and increasing
lightning near the West Virginia and Pennsylvania border. Rainfall
rates are nearing an inch per hour on an isolated basis with
eastward moving, training cells embedded in ~30 kt westerly flow
aloft. Storms are embedded with an airmass characterized by
1.5-1.7 inch PWATS and persistent low-level moist advection into
the discussion area. Instability is marginal (~1000 J/kg), but
sufficient to maintain ongoing activity. Additionally, a
mid-level shortwave trough centered over northern Ohio was moving
toward the discussion area, providing ascent to support continued
heavy rainfall beneath the storms.

Isolated flash flooding is possible in sensitive terrain in the
northern West Virginia -- potentially including towns of Fairmount
and Morgantown. The foothills of the Appalachians in southwestern
and central Pennsylvania will also be susceptible to localized
flooding. A quick 1-2 inches of rain in a hour may exceed local
FFG thresholds (currently in the 1-1.5 inch/hr range). The cells
are likely to persist as they move eastward at around 15-25 knots,
reaching portions of south-central PA and western Maryland through
15Z/11a eastern.

Wilder

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_bVI_MqvZ69MBhQY2MqwqAs9DZ8WooGZlGXPGCPn9-PeUVuKMOifmDqKFKyN_mmljP5JbOdTplUMl8oFlerPYmb8h1c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40707936 40637834 40597743 40297680 39757748
39267847 38747948 38548039 38918149 39198188
39218191 40158130 40568060 40668005

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 8 15:57:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 081557
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-081855-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0974
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1156 AM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...ArkLaTex and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081555Z - 081855Z

Summary...Localized flash flooding risk continues across the
Arklatex...

Discussion... A near stationary band of thunderstorms has
developed across Southwest Arkansas along an outflow boundary from
convection across the area this morning. Convection is also
forming along this boundary westward to the Texas/Oklahoma border.
Satellite shows convection and lightning expanding within this
storm cluster. Rainfall rates (per MRMS) are as high as 2-3" per
hour on a localized basis, nearing hourly FFG thresholds, while
MRMS Flash responses were low to moderate, suggestive of local
runoff potential beneath ongoing cells.

The storms are embedded in 1000 J/kg MLCAPE (per RAP/SPC
mesoanalyses) and 2 inch PW values, supporting heavy rainfall and
efficient rainfall processes. This moisture/instability combo
along with subtle confluence rooted in the 850-700mb layer should
sustain storms for at least another couple hours. Weak steering
flow aloft will enable slow/negligible storm motions, and spots of
2-3 inch/hr rain rates are likely to occur while storms persist.

Models/CAMs suggest that this threat may diminish through 18-19Z
or so as weak low- to mid-level convergence further weakens.These
trends will be monitored through the early afternoon as there
remains some uncertainty if the storms may persist beyond this
time period.

Cook/Wilder

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5QyJ2iRPGqMoWOkDx9XRQZJWqW1Qxop2W2xXpNNEUJRsLU7qj6fbDklwzjn1DyjIAO3S6IVKTDxwzNOYA997Q_12SnY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34819317 34679216 33979209 33259368 32989584
33009634 33859639 34319522

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 8 16:26:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 081626
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-081954-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0975
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1225 PM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...I-95 urban corridor from Baltimore to
Philadelphia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081624Z - 081954Z

Summary...A few areas of heavy rainfall could pose a primarily
urban flash flood threat along the I-95 corridor over the next 2-4
hours.

Discussion...A forward-propagating line of convection is currently
organized along an axis from York/Harrisburg, PA southwestward to
Frederick, MD. The storms are moving at a decent pace (around
25-30 knots or so), but are in an environment characterized by 1.8
inch PW values and ~2000 J/kg MLCAPE. The downstream airmass will
likely support a continued heavy rainfall threat with this
activity, and areas of 0.5 inch/hr rain rates (locally higher)
will accompany this activity as it reaches the Baltimore to
Philadelphia I-95 corridor and surrounding area through
approximately 1730-1830Z (130-230p eastern). Local FFG thresholds
are near zero across Baltimore and closer to 1 inch/hr near
Philadelphia, though urban sensitivities could result in excessive
runoff even with sub-FFG threshold rainfall rates. Areas of
primarily urban flash flood instances are possible.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8dyZNF6IXYUjUrHMYGZarQHXyNpkOl1AAlsdX0C0nppcZlbnKh_Z5erEt5U5Hwsgftw0jnV_20spLhgTBYoCRsd5s3g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40707502 40327430 39517416 38937483 38707660
39197709 40397687 40617627

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 8 18:13:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 081813
FFGMPD
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-090000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0976
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
212 PM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...Mid-South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081812Z - 090000Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms with
high rainfall rates will promote concerns for at least isolated
areas of flash flooding going through the afternoon and early
evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows cooling
cloud tops across areas of northern MS, western TN and northwest
AL in association with developing clusters of showers and
thunderstorms. Additional activity is also noted farther east
across the Cumberland Plateau region of eastern TN. The activity
is initiating and expanding in coverage as a well-defined
mid-level vort center over eastern AR drifts east into a very
moist and unstable airmass pooled up across the broader Mid-South.
Farther east, there is also the influence from terrain and
differential heating boundaries.

MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg and PWs of 1.75 to 2+ inches
are in place across the region. The strong boundary layer heating
with solar insolation will continue to help drive increasing
levels of instability over the next few hours, and this will
couple with the evolution of smaller-scale outflow boundary
activity for additional convection to develop and expand in
coverage. Local orographic ascent near areas of elevation will
also be a key player in driving more areas of convection.

The morning 12Z RAOB soundings from KLZK, KBNA and KBMX confirm
rather high WBZ heights and plenty of moisture extending through
the vertical column. This will support high efficiency with this
afternoon's convection with high rainfall rates that will be
capable of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour with the stronger storms.

The lack of effective bulk shear suggests the convective mode
should mainly be pulse in nature, but there may be enough outflow
boundary collisions and cold pool activity to facilitate some
loosely organized multi-cell convection. This coupled with slow
cell-motions and some cell-merger potential may help yield some
localized 3 to 4+ inch rainfall totals over the next several
hours. This will drive a threat for at least isolated areas of
flash flooding, with the more urbanized locations at greatest risk
for impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-VZ7YQLm-IPvAN2vO8MiVW4I8hW0Uf--izJd1ZDx5jXrLL2cChBgz6jlFytWi6OQDzj3b3a67U2UeiBvZT2P7kqvZiQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG... MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36988713 36978567 36768460 36218393 35368413
35138428 34648491 34238588 33788845 33059043
33159148 33609158 34919046 36019006 36558893

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 8 18:45:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 081844
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-090030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0977
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 PM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...Arklatex

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081843Z - 090030Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates
continue across portions of the Arklatex region. Additional areas
of flash flooding will be possible over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery and radar data suggests
evidence of a slow-moving vort across the Arklatex region which
continues to interact with a very moist and unstable airmass for
redeveloping areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. MLCAPE
values across far northeast TX through northern LA and far
southern AR are on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg, with PWs of
generally 1.8 to 2.0 inches based on the latest RAP analysis.

This strongly favorable thermodynamic environment coupled with
small-scale vort dynamics and surface outflow boundary activity
should help to maintain a convective threat across the broader
Arklatex region over the next several hours.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour with
the stronger storms given the level of moisture and instability
that is in place. While the shear is limited, these storms should
still have some localized organization along any outflow boundary
collisions. This coupled with slow cell-motions overall may allow
for some additional rainfal totals of 3 to 4+ inches to occur.

FFG values are quite high over the region, and therefore these
additional rains should generally favor an isolated and mainly
urban flash flood threat going through the afternoon and early
evening hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9XgyE-CzbGeOqG5BYwrUSp0MgxuriDDy1jOZzV3Q1O6zVRZu5gyA21PuSGIAXHTkVhjj9M65PyfakXTuGDN3k8q_rto$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34119395 34039310 33889255 33589196 33249171
32689171 32249187 31969249 31929371 32129481
32539569 32939591 33479583 33859548 34029488

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 8 21:58:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 082158
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-090345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0978
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
557 PM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...Central to Northwest AZ...Southern NV...Southwest
UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082157Z - 090345Z

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for flash flooding will exist from
scattered areas of monsoonal showers and thunderstorms through
early this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W satellite imagery, LightningCast,
and GREMLIN products show scattered areas of locally heavy showers
and thunderstorms impacting portions of southeast NV through
southwest UT and northwest/central AZ. New areas of convection are
expected to initiate and locally expand in coverage this afternoon
through early this evening as the full diurnal heating cycle plays
out.

Much of the activity will continue to be terrain-focused, but the
activity will increasingly move off areas of higher terrain over
the next few hours and propagate downwind into areas of stronger
boundary layer instability and also with potential for interacting
with multiple outflow boundaries.

SBCAPE values have reached locally as high as 1000 J/kg with the
continuation of strong boundary layer heating, and with areas of
terrain still enhancing some differential heating boundaries,
convection will still be capable of focusing along these mesoscale
features throughout the afternoon.

PWs are as high as 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal across
areas of southern NV down into western AZ. These elevated PWs are
due to the deeper layer transport of monsoonal moisture around the
western periphery of the subtropical ridge over the Southwest.

The model guidance is overall pretty modest with its QPF over the
next several hours, but with areas of deeper and sustainable cloud
top cooling seen, there will be concerns for locally heavy
rainfall. Slow cell-motions and the degree of moisture that is in
place may foster some rainfall rates of up to 1.5 inches/hour, but
this would be highly isolated in nature. The instability uptick
across areas of central and western AZ to the west of the Mogollon
Rim may facilitate the development or sustenance of westward
moving convection off the terrain of the Mogollon Rim. Some spotty
rainfall amounts may reach up to 2 inches going through early this
evening, and this may result in an isolated occurrence of some
flash flooding. The local burn scar and slot canyon areas will be
most susceptible to potential impacts along with the normally dry
washes.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_vLBcmIRYoGBWz-RH8uDA1daSe_vl4ihuRegqtxtpZnygjahDen6vYMZ5aol1WKbM7sMEBRqI907QdIOxMSMFhSRAdI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40071466 39501390 38931273 39061190 38611130
37531144 36891148 36111145 35331121 34731077
34420995 33840972 33261013 33091109 33231233
33831331 34561379 35401404 36311432 36891480
37331621 37681691 38331739 39491723 39991621

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 8 22:49:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 082249
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-090300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0979
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
648 PM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...Southwest to Central NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082248Z - 090300Z

SUMMARY...An isolated and mainly urban flash flood threat will
exist this evening. This will include the Raleigh-Durham
metropolitan area.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows some
cooling convective tops across areas of southwest to central NC in
association with a broken axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms.
Surface data shows the activity focused along a well-defined and
convectively reinforced surface trough.

MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000+ J/kg are pooled along this
boundary, and it is quite moist with PWs of 1.75 to 2.0 inches in
place. This airmass combined with modest moisture convergence and
weakly divergent flow aloft may help to sustain the convective
threat at least into a portion of the evening time frame.

Some of the 18Z HREF/REFS guidance suggests some locally heavy
rains with potential for 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates and
perhaps a few spotty 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals where some highly
localized cell-training takes place. As the aforementioned
instability pool is exhausted, the convection should weaken later
this evening, but at least for a few hours this evening, there
will be an isolated and mainly urban flash flood threat. This will
include areas near and west of the Raleigh-Durham metropolitan
area.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-fLhsvz83JM_uZiw5uFWNWi8XZarFjiV8DZPoXe7mqiOkjZ6ySMm5S2Zd6tz8mNTxvWFtPZwGyRaKeq6wjDIwxAtYF4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36307857 36287803 36067782 35767794 35457839
35247907 35117997 35028082 35038159 35088199
35248218 35448209 35608168 35808087 36028002
36187929

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 9 00:19:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 090019
FFGMPD
NVZ000-CAZ000-090400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0980
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
818 PM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Sierra Nevada

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090017Z - 090400Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and locally anchored thunderstorms over the
Sierra Nevada may persist for a few more hours. This will maintain
at least a localized flash flood threat over sensitive sloped
terrain and possibly burn scars.

DISCUSSION...Relatively anomalous monsoonal moisture pooling along
the crest of the Sierra Nevada working in tandem with the diurnal
heating cycle and orographic ascent has led to the development of
slow-moving thunderstorms over the higher terrain.

Radar and satellite imagery shows some of these cells becoming
quite focused over the higher terrain of Alpine and Mono Counties
in particular, and these cells may tend to persist locally for
another couple of hours. Terrain-driven circulations related to
the differential heating boundaries are the primary driver of some
of these cell-anchored storms, and with the moisture profiles that
are in place, some additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2+ inches
will be possible. This is being aided by pockets of MUCAPE around
500 to 1000+ J/kg.

Additional areas of small-scale flash flooding will be possible
which may include burn scar locations and also the more sensitive
sloped terrain.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_8fCO4U4NO_mrTi4Lh2BX7DjLGTSKP68zDwdyZVDB6qtJmoNBR_drIDqjiQRbwlRt3EC1bSldH46BotMR2SBlteWoIM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...REV...STO...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38861998 38821971 38601935 38181892 37571847
36871819 36421814 36321861 37041903 37661950
38272013 38702031

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 9 02:09:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 090209
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-090700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0981
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1007 PM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Upper OH Valley and Northern
Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090207Z - 090700Z

SUMMARY...Expanding clusters of thunderstorms with some
cell-training concerns may result in at least some isolated areas
of flash flooding going into the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
radar data shows some clusters of convection tending to expand in
coverage across areas of central to northeast OH, western PA, and
into southwest NY. The activity is focusing along and ahead of a
cold front dropping southeast across the region as an upper-level
trough and corridor of upper-level jet energy transits the Great
Lakes region.

MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg are pooled up across these
areas along with an axis of 1.75+ inch PWs. This coupled with
broadly divergent flow aloft and a belt of stronger shear will
help to drive potentially some additional expansion of convection
over the next few hours.

Some localized cell-training will be possible with some of the
swaths of convection over the next few hours, and with rainfall
rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour expected with the stronger storms,
there may be some spotty areas of 2 to 3+ inch rainfall totals.

FFG values are generally rather low across the Upper OH Valley and
adjacent areas of the northern Mid-Atlantic, so these corridors of thunderstorms going into portions of the overnight period may
result in at least some isolated areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5SUEI4qKpizBZEs4hsioO9rBqd9R_rpnJ65ZepWge4Xx1GZAaMrp8K7cVJjzg4_jeVo4dLTF8kc8TJDliHx9P37RftQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43137656 42887538 42377495 41487560 40177808
39297925 38408038 38028153 38188276 38788355
39408350 40478261 41438108 41898000 42287907
42677815 42957755

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 9 05:38:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 090537
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-091130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0982
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
136 AM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...South Dakota through Southern Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090534Z - 091130Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage during the next several hours and train across eastern
South Dakota into Minnesota. Rainfall rates of 2"/hr are likely,
which through training could produce 2-4+" of rain. Flash flooding
is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening shows a slow
expansion of slow moving thunderstorms near the SD/ND border, with
additional scattered thunderstorms farther east into MN. This
activity is blossoming in response to a strengthening LLJ emerging
from NE, now being measured via regional VWPs as high as 40-55
kts. The S/SW orientation of this LLJ is drawing impressive
thermodynamics northward as reflected by GPS measured PWs of 1.3
to 1.5 inches, around the 90th percentile for the date,
overlapping a ribbon of extreme MUCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg. A weak
shortwave digging out of ND to interact with this LLJ in a region
of modest mid-level thickness diffluence is additionally enhancing
ascent, and it is likely activity is on the precipice of rapid
expansion as reflected by a steady increase in LightningCast
probabilities over the Dakotas/Minnesota.

The HRRR is initializing poorly tonight, but some of the high-res
CAMs including the RRFS have at least some semblance of the
current activity to help with the progged evolution. As the LLJ
continues to ramp up and surge northward, it will sharpen both the
convergence axis and the resulting CAPE gradient to cause what
should be a NW to SE arcing line of thunderstorms through the
overnight. Mean 0-6km winds from the west (and region of more
impressive thermodynamics) combined with Corfidi vectors aligned
to the LLJ nose suggest upstream development will occur, leading
to training as cells move repeatedly to the southeast. With
rainfall rates potentially eclipsing 2"/hr at times (10-20% chance
from the REFS), this could lean to a corridor of 2-4" of rainfall
with locally higher amounts possible.

7-day rainfall across this region has been below normal with just
a few exceptions in southern MN. This has allowed 3-hr FFG to
recover to 2-2.5 inches, for which REFS exceedance probabilities
peak around 30%. This suggests that despite the relatively dry
antecedent conditions, the training of these intense rain rates
could still overwhelm the soils, leading to instances of flash
flooding through the overnight and into the early morning hours.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4_6znjrjbKM8d-4FNIVmr_DCwj7NROZaYykGtBqeWnrsuDCSy5NzmrlhYeRWroTxbwYWRoAXpREu6yM1FgE-Gnesm68$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46320040 46259856 45799544 45689527 45179369
44449288 43869327 43749360 43519477 43609623
44319834 45320019 45900106 46210108

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 9 07:26:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 090726
FFGMPD
MOZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-091300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0983
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
325 AM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Iowa, eastern Nebraska, northern Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090724Z - 091300Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
across western Iowa overnight with a slow advance eastward through
morning. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr are likely, leading to 2-3" of
rain with locally higher amounts. This may result in flash
flooding.

Discussion...During the past few hours, the regional radar mosaic
has shown a slow but steady expansion of thunderstorms across
western Iowa. This activity is blossoming along the eastern edge
of the intense 850mb LLJ centered over Nebraska (measured via VWPs
to above 50 kts). Veering winds between 850-700mb is helping to
transport the accompanying robust thermodynamics over Nebraska
eastward, and the resulting convergence on the edge of the +12C
700mb is leading to regenerating thunderstorms within the
associated WAA.

Hourly rainfall measured via MRMS has been generally 0.75 to 1.25
inches within the more intense cells. However, the coverage of
these higher rain rates has begun to expand, suggesting the flash
flood risk is increasing. As the core of the LLJ moves slowly
eastward, the accompanying veered flow should push MUCAPE to above
2000 J/kg coincident with a PW plume of 1.7 to 1.8 inches. This
will support expanding convection with rain rates peaking at
1-2"/hr as suggested by HREF and REFS probabilities reaching
20-30% for 1"/hr, despite the poor initialization of many of the
high-res CAMs this morning.

The persistent WAA should generally push the convection eastward
with time in response to the translation of warming mid-level
temperatures. However, this will promote at least a short duration
of backbuilding convection with storms developing upstream near
the Nebraska/Iowa border and then translating E/SE at 10-20 kts.
Where any repeating/backbuilding storms can occur, 2-3" of rain is
possible with locally higher amounts.

Soil moisture across the region is generally normal to slightly
below normal according to NASA SPoRT. However, recent 7-day
rainfall that has been as much as 400% of normal over southern
Iowa/northern Missouri has reduced 3-hr FFG to around 2 inches.
While any backbuilding of these intense rain rates could lead to
instances of flash flooding, the greatest risk appears to be over
southern Iowa, southeast Nebraska, and northern Missouri, where
antecedent conditions make the area a bit more vulnerable to
runoff and flash flooding impacts.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7IugpsI26kqmniRe3xoazHTaFD0rWW4-id1fNTH6IZeGbxwtPAMhRwnCE056XnoaCWlUNf-fVxLPHsMSCTgCNS9EDJE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...MPX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43689409 42569284 41219275 40269323 39899455
40059579 40489622 40979631 41729636 42269648
42409647 43689665

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 9 14:24:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 091423
FFGMPD
WIZ000-091922-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0984
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1022 AM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...central into southeastern Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091422Z - 091922Z

Summary...A mature convective complex near Wisconsin Dells was
migrating southeastward while producing heavy rainfall. Flash
flood potential will increase once this complex reaches
urban/sensitive areas of southeastern Wisconsin over the next 2-4
hours (though 18Z/1p central).

Discussion...Areas of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates were noted with a
convective complex currently near the Wisconsin Dells/Portage
areas (per MRMS). The complex was migrating southeastward at a
decent pace (around 30 knots) but was exhibiting both
forward-propagation and local mergers, enhancing rain rates on a
localized basis. FFG thresholds in the immediate vicinity of the
complex were in the 2-2.5 inch/hr range, suggesting
isolated/localized flash flood potential in the short term.

Storms are moving east-southeastward along a warm front currently.
Their trajectory will result in heavy rainfall approaching more
urbanized areas of southeastern WI (Milwaukee and vicinity) over
the next 2-4 hours, and should the orientation/organization of the
complex remain during this timeframe, an increase in local flash
flood potential will exist. Downstream PW values of 1.5+ inches
and instability (around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE along/south of the warm
front) will continue to support heavy rainfall. Furthermore, FFG
thresholds decrease to around 1 inch/hr with southeastward extent,
which has potential for exceedance as the complex migrates through
the region. Flash flooding is possible on an isolated basis -
particularly in low-lying/urban/sensitive areas.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7NEAW2tNbIpzQr9N9IxL8Z0vh-H-pxz561SHDiVzbyKC0mOoi-mEeBk3DVB70LtShTWNjl29oKNdwVrZHfkYSo0SVxk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44168841 43928748 42868741 42508819 42718965
43419017 44158929

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 9 17:32:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 091732
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-092030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0985
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
131 PM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern Illinois, northwestern
Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091730Z - 092030Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding are possible through 2030Z/3:30p
central.

Discussion...An earlier, mature MCS has migrated southeastward
primarily across WI and the border region between WI and IL over
the past several hours. Recent radar/satellite imagery depicts
more focused development on the southwestern flank of this mature
MCS extending from near Waukegan to near Rochelle. These storms
were progressive owing to 25 kt mean flow aloft, although 1.7 inch
PW and 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE was enabling local rain rates to reach 1
inch/hr as storms mature. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough
over central IL was also likely aiding in convective development
in tandem with southward surging outflow from far southern WI into
the discussion area.

The overall result of this evolving mesoscale pattern is localized
areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates that should affect populated/urban
areas of northeastern IL into northwestern IN over at least the
next 3 hours (through 2030Z). The combination of urban surfaces
and FFG thresholds near 1 inch/hr should support at least a
localized risk of flash flood impacts 1) as storms mature and 2)
near any local mergers that may occur.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4VSpA_p2Ff5VFtkwou4F7OdcXk6jwzBWep2xkBu15gqS6Vr_mwjuQEvXFfYG2CHkS5TtDPN8cRt3JZLoOO0Cd7zxg90$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42458819 42218739 41848680 41418662 41118692
41098803 41488910 41838910 42368876

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 9 18:01:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 091801
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-100000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0986
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the TN Valley and Southern
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091800Z - 100000Z

SUMMARY...Expanding areas of showers and thunderstorms with high
rainfall rates will pose a threat for localized flash flooding.
Some sensitive sloped terrain and the more urbanized locations
will be at greatest risk for impacts this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery along
with LightningCast data shows convective initiation taking place
across central to northeast AL up through northern GA, eastern TN
and adjacent areas of the southern Appalachians.

The convection is developing in an unstable and moisture-rich
environment with MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg, and PWs of
1.75 to 2.0 inches. This thermodynamic environment coupled with
modest orographic ascent over the Cumberland Plateau and adjacent
southern Appalachians will foster an uptick in the coverage of
rather slow-moving and locally terrain-anchored showers and
thunderstorms going through the afternoon hours. Some very weak
ascent also around the eastern flanks of vort energy over the
Mid-South may provide some additional support for convection, but
largely the convective threat today is being driven by orographic
ascent and differential heating boundaries. In time, some outflow
boundary collisions will favor additional convective development.

Rainfall rates with the stronger and more focused cells will be
capable of reaching 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour. The latest consensus
of HREF and REFS data suggest some localized 3 to 4 inch rainfall
totals will be possible. This would likely be sufficient to drive
a localized threat for some flash flooding, including some of the
more sensitive sloped terrain and urban corridors where runoff
would be more enhanced.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4NZQ5kYtwgqq8dMuvNz0N2RXVfc6JeAcOH-c2kLY0gSIb5UGbAPei1CSS9jTHJpYVDns8ahF4fD3awiz6hI_we8WR5w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JKL...MRX...OHX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36888067 36658033 36018089 34998206 34228338
33128504 32968617 33358661 34368641 35158583
36208532 36678463 36378330 36478234 36878123

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 9 18:32:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 091831
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-100015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0987
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
230 PM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Southeast GA...Northeast FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091829Z - 100015Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving thunderstorms with locally extreme rainfall
rates may cause some areas of especially urban flash flooding this
afternoon and early this evening.

DISCUSSION...Cooling convective tops are seen across areas of
southeast GA and far northeast FL as sea breeze convergence
gradually attempts to push inland where interacting with a very
moist and unstable airmass. MLCAPE values have increased to over
3000 J/kg in a corridor just inland of the coast to the west of
Brunswick and down to the northwest of Jacksonville.

LightningCast data shows high probabilities (over 70 percent) of
CI taking place to the west and southwest of the current activity
over the next 60 minutes, and visible satellite images show an
increasingly agitated CU/TCU field more broadly across southeast
GA and northeast FL, so the overall convective footprint should
expand in coverage over the next few hours.

PWs are very high and reflective of a deeply tropical environment
with values around 2.25 inches, and this coupled with the
instability will favor extreme rainfall rates. Some rainfall rates
of 2 to 3 inches/hour are expected, and with weak steering
currents driving slow cell-motions, some spotty 3 to 5 inch
rainfall amounts will be possible.

This is supported by a consensus of the 12Z HREF/REFS solutions
which also show some 20 to 40 percent probabilities of seeing the
3-hour FFG being exceeded. As a result, some areas of mainly urban
flash flooding will be possible over the next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7ILHxJGeWDCzkBnl4ve3TyIfbdRP0R4jzOrk32T4tog6bk5K1heO4lcSkwkdBN8lHFjVZCxWY1dUmPxcxJSO1h08Mxw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32218158 31948097 31248108 30668128 29888134
29768217 30198298 30618330 31108336 31548314
32038240

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 9 20:40:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 092039
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-100235-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0988
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
438 PM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Northern IL...Northern IN...Southern Lower
MI...Northwest OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092038Z - 100235Z

SUMMARY...A strong MCS advancing across portions of the Midwest
will continue to foster a threat for at least isolated areas of
flash flooding going through early this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
radar shows a generally progressive MCS advancing across portions
of far northeast IL through far northwest IN and into southwest
Lower MI. This convective line is generally focused in close
proximity to a warm front attempting to lift off to the northeast
out ahead of a shortwave trough and associated low center crossing
through northern IL.

Very unstable and moist air is situated across the warm sector to
the south of this front with MLCAPE values of 3000 to 3500 J/kg
pooled up across north-central IL through northwest IN. Surface
dewpoints in the mid 70s are contributing to these high CAPE
values, and fostering PWs of 1.75 to 2.0 inches.

Given the elevated shear values (~30 to 40 kts) in conjunction
with strong thermodynamics, the ongoing MCS is likely to be
sustainable with a motion off to the east or east-southeast over
the next few hours. Convergence along the warm front along with
isentropic ascent will play a role in maintaining the convective
threat as the MCS moves across northern IN, southern Lower MI and
eventually northwest OH.

The southwest tail of the MCS is an area where some cell-training
concerns may occur to the extent of fostering some flash flood
risk. Also, with a cold pool established across parts of northern
IL in the wake of this MCS, the upstream advance of very
moist/unstable low-level southwest flow over top of it may result
in there being some regeneration of elevated convection. Radar and
satellite imagery is already hinting at some of this.

Considerable uncertainty exists this evening with the convective
threat over northern IL and northern IN as there may be an
opportunity for regenerating rounds of convection, but at least
for the near-term, some rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour will
be possible with the main MCS, with some spotty 2 to 3+ inch
amounts where any cell-training sets up.

At least isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible through
early this evening, with most of the threat confined to the more
sensitive urban areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5AHtXxzym7S8NI_athLYKrRd25g_n3qnA9pDIQSjHWeMXGju1WVeise6CXOyfpZYYYtlYyZ71EAIum8rTJ2lE0lgefw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...DVN...GRR...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...
LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42568919 42328801 42248719 42218625 42448536
42398422 42058330 41358293 40778325 40468446
40518620 40658777 41048916 41689008 42419030

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 9 21:34:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 092134
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-100330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0989
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
532 PM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Southwest U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092132Z - 100330Z

SUMMARY...Scattered monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will tend
to increase a bit further in coverage this evening. Isolated areas
of flash flooding will be possible with locally heavy rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2+ inches.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W visible satellite along with the
GREMLIN product shows scattered areas of monsoonal showers and
thunderstorms tending to further increase in coverage across areas
of west-central NM into eastern AZ, with additional areas of focus
noted up across some of the higher terrain of northwest AZ (near
the Mogollon Rim), southeast NV, and southwest to south-central UT.

Strong diurnal heating has led to SBCAPE values of as much as 1000
to 2000 J/kg across sizable areas of central and southern AZ with
nose of this extending up into northwest AZ and southwest UT. This
corridor of greater instability will tend to be where some of the
better convective focus will be over the next several hours in
conjunction with orographic ascent and differential heating
boundaries.

Some convection over the Mogollon Rim is expected to advance
westward off the terrain and out into this more unstable airmass
that is pooling across the region, and some of the hires models
suggest areas of central AZ may see some of the heaviest rainfall
potential this evening. PW anomalies of 1 to 1.5 standard
deviations above normal area noted across some of these areas with
the fetch of better low to mid-level monsoonal moisture seen
lifting north around the west side of the subtropical ridge over
the Southwest.

A highly isolated threat for flash flooding will exist into the
evening hours from the thunderstorms which will have the potential
to drop 1 inch of rain in as little as 30 minutes. Generally the
totals will be 1 to 2 inches, with a couple of spotty 2+ inch
amounts possible where the stronger storms focus. This may result
in some arroyo flash flooding, and some of the regional burn scar
locations and sensitive slot canyon locations may also potentially
see impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6R8MqZMI--W_-0M7BoRUzTavHXbL9lAUaexgGYf6sm4LXxuLo4Jdg0KyjV-U-XjklCwBJtrREwQFlWWfO90DE8TZGkw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...LKN...PSR...SLC...TWC...
VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39171180 38951097 38251053 36181106 35131087
34671034 34320941 34220843 33930777 33680764
33180769 32460871 31610942 31301013 31341152
31841289 32581332 33671350 34631399 35321467
36141570 36981596 37811545 38661409 39091249

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 9 21:59:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 092159
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-100330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0990
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
557 PM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Mid-South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092157Z - 100330Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue this
evening across portions of the Mid-South which will maintain a
concern for additional pockets of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of relatively slow-moving showers
and thunderstorms are seen impacting areas of central to northwest
AL and also adjacent areas of northeast MS and middle TN.

There are still areas of northern AL and parts of middle TN that
have a substantial pool of boundary layer instability in place
with MLCAPE values of around 2500 J/kg. Meanwhile, outflow
boundaries are seen slowly advancing out from the existing areas
of convection across the region.

Over the next few hours, some outflow boundary collisions are
expected which will drive a threat for expanding and regenerating
clusters of convection over the region. Northern AL in particular
appears to be at risk for seeing the best potential for this based
on the latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery trends.

Given the instability and high PW environment, with PWs of 2.0 to
2.2 inches, the rainfall rate potential will be very high and
capable of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour. Slow cell-motions and
potential for a few cell-mergers may allow for some spotty 3 to 4
inch rainfall amounts going through this evening.

Already there have been a couple of flash flood warnings that have
come out across central and northwest AL, and some additional
flash flooding concerns will exist going into the evening hours as
the convective threat continues.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!95y6SJ4NF_1U1AOl_wju3-skkGyQRyLShg91b78Zz1Qi0_-i19Zu2geTl5fur8t74cBmjv3TZ5SlRlwFeoOZIjHpiM8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...MEG...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35638690 35618629 35378566 34778551 34168589
33288675 32908765 32978853 33408879 34308822
35238781

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 10 02:33:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100233
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-100700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0991
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1032 PM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Northern Illinois, far Southwest Michigan,
Northern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100231Z - 100700Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop this evening
and then expand while training to the east-southeast. Rainfall
rates of 2"/hr are likely, leading to 2-4+" of rainfall in the
next few hours. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening shows new
thunderstorm development occurring across far NW Illinois. This
activity is blossoming downstream of a modest shortwave rippling
southeast within broadly cyclonic mid-level flow. This is
producing subtle backing of the low-level wind field to
isentropically ascend a stationary front analyzed by WPC draped
west-to-east from Iowa into Ohio. 850mb winds have increased to
20-30 kts as measured via regional VWPs, helping to transport
impressive thermodynamics northward due to PWs approaching 2" and
MLCAPE of 4000 J/kg pooling along the front. This is supporting
hourly rainfall that has already exceeded 1" according to MRMS
within this new activity.

The ingredients are extremely supportive for heavy rainfall into
tonight, but the CAMs are struggling to identify a focus for the
footprint. As the shortwave drops steadily E/SE it will help to
accelerate the inflow to produce even more intense thermodynamic
advection northward. Locally enhanced ascent downstream of this
shortwave should interact broadly with the front to create strong
lift to regenerate convection. The mean 0-6km winds aligned
parallel to the front indicate a high potential for
backbuilding/training, with a southeast motion eventually
developing as Corfidi vectors become aligned NW to SE to dive into
the moisture in reponse to the veering LLJ. The last two runs of
the HRRR have finally started to exhibit a reasonable QPF
footprint, getting closer to the ARW/CONEST/RRFS which, while not
perfect, appear to match better the conceptual model for tonight's
evolution. This is concerning because several of the deterministic
models suggest locally 5-6" of rain in the next 6 hours, and
although confidence in these amounts by 08Z are limited, it does
outline the higher-end potential for the area tonight.

Parts of this area, generally along and north of I-90, have
received 1-3" of rain already today, priming the soils ahead of
the event tonight. 3-hr FFG is generally 2 inches across the
region, but locally is as low as 1-1.5", for which the HREF and
REFS both indicate a 20-30% chance of exceedance, and this is
despite significant spread in the individual ensemble members.
Still, this is enough support to suggest at least possible flash
flooding the next few hours. However, as this event unfolds,
additional MPDs will likely be needed to capture the evolving, and
potentially increasing, flash flood risk overnight.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!77rguL3N0y6NjR4V8ywosbfi4E2aVKKEYtVzgzUuwj1nEI2CXclhqr0Q_KvjSTe0Rxweb0F28SfV9n8DRKzCipSQJCo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...GRR...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42408838 42198620 41838521 41378456 41008441
40528473 40158558 39968688 40078820 41019012
42399059

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 10 03:34:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100334
FFGMPD
AZZ000-CAZ000-100800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0992
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1133 PM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Southern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100330Z - 100800Z

Summary...Clusters of thunderstorms will continue to progress
westward across southern Arizona the next few hours. Hourly
rainfall of 0.75 to 1.25 inches is possible, leading to isolated
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...GOES-E IR satellite imagery this evening indicates
that cloud tops are continuing to rapidly cool across southern
Arizona. This cloud top cooling is associated with deepening
thunderstorms moving steadily east to west across the region. At
500mb, a shortwave trough is noted pushing west beneath the
monsoon ridge, driving locally enhanced forcing for ascent. This
lift, combined with surface convergence along boundary collisions
and storm mergers from the ongoing convection is producing renewed
thunderstorm activity thanks to impressive thermodynamics
characterized by PWs as high as 1.6 inches and MLCAPE 1500-2500
J/kg.

Recent MRMS hourly rainfall has been above 1 inch in a few of the
deeper convective cores, and despite limited signal in the HREF
neighborhood probabilities (just 5-15%), the ingredients suggest
these rates can continue for a few more hours. This is supported,
at least, by recent UA WRF and sub-hourly HRRR guidance as well.
As the shortwave pushes steadily to the west, it will impinge upon thermodynamics that may additionally improve due to persistent
inflow off the Gulf of California. The overlap of the approaching
shortwave with an even more moist column suggests rainfall rates
of 0.75-1.25"/hr are likely. Limiting the total rain from this
convection is the speed at which these storms should move, as
propagation vectors are to the west at 20-25 kts, but any
collisions or redevelopment immediately downstream of the
mid-level wave could cause locally slower storm motions, or
repeating events. Where this occurs, 1-2" of rain is possible in
isolated locations.

In general, the modest storm coverage combined with steady storm
motions should preclude widespread flash flooding tonight.
However, any of these intense rain rates that move over vulnerable
terrain features like dry washes or burn scars, could lead to
flash flooding impacts before activity wanes later tonight.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_GIeXgc9DWEhdk3silp_9Dm-RcP_GGwaOEiFCYf5pHd8EVfehAbocjQeSMprYtJ_4yQuZak5ItYt3Wpj6BLaxfKzKDA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33881303 33541207 32961106 32811080 32090998
31731017 31461103 31371180 31781312 32391484
33411461 33861410

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 10 06:14:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100614
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-101130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0993
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
213 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas, Northern Missouri, Far Southern
Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100612Z - 101130Z

Summary...Clusters of thunderstorms moving along a stationary
front will bring 1-2"/hr rain rates through the overnight. Total
rainfall of 2-3" with locally higher amounts may cause flash
flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic tonight shows clusters of
thunderstorms expanding near the intersection of Nebraska, Kansas,
and Missouri. This activity is building along a stationary front
analyzed by WPC, into which a strengthening LLJ of 40-50 kts
measured via regional VWPs is supplying impressive moisture and
instability to sustain convection. Recent GPS measurements
indicate PWs have climbed to 1.4 to 1.7 inches, collocated with
pooled MUCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg in the vicinity of the boundary. A
modest shortwave tracking east from Nebraska has helped develop a
wave of low pressure along this boundary, with these coupled
features driving additionally enhanced ascent to support
thunderstorms.

The high-res CAMs are struggling with this activity tonight. There
is very little support from any of the CAMs to suggest the ongoing
activity will continue (as most do not have the current
development at all). This creates lower than typical confidence in
the forecast. However, with the LLJ progged to continue to surge
to the NE at 40-50 kts until diurnal veering, convection should be
sustained for many hours. Thunderstorms which develop along the
convergent nose of this LLJ should generally organize into
clusters on 25-30 kts of effective bulk shear, with cells
generally tracking to the south as reflected by Corfidi vectors.
However, with redevelopment upstream likely, and mean 0-6km winds
pointing to the east, this suggests the potential for repeating
rounds of convection, through which 1-2"/hr rain rates could cause
2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts.

This area has received impressive rainfall the past 7 days,
reflected by AHPS showing 300-400% of normal rainfall. This has
lowered the 1-hr (3-hr) FFG to just 1.5 (2.5) inches, indicating
the area is vulnerable to these intense rain rates. Despite
minimal model support, the ingredients suggest the environment is
supportive of rainfall exceeding this FFG, leading to isolated
instances of flash flooding into the early morning hours.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7VyQgUTyI34wD7UhuWhuWksjpJ2JYxiP5vEV77NbGJZzZj28VobDY46QJInMoqSrdAiJCXUjrQjCYtsQvlKS19DvlHQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40789422 40629275 39889185 39019164 38609205
38299295 38349373 38479460 38869544 39429598
40209618 40679544

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 10 06:54:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100654
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-101230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0994
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...Lower Great Lakes

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100651Z - 101230Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with hourly rainfall as high as 2.5" will
continue to spread across the lower Great Lakes into the early
morning. Where any repeating/training can occur, total rainfall of
3-5" is possible. This may result in additional flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E IR imagery early this morning shows an
impressive MCS with a large area of -50C or colder cloud tops
moving over northeast Illinois and into Indiana/Michigan. Embedded
even colder cloud tops are indicative of still deepening
convection, which is additionally reflected by the regional radar
mosaic featuring many clusters of thunderstorms moving across the
area.

This activity is building within an area of strong overlapping
deep layer ascent caused via a mid-level shortwave moving atop a
stationary front and isentropic upglide on a 30-40kt 850mb LLJ.
This LLJ is gradually strengthening as noted via regional VWPs,
and is transporting robust thermodynamics (PWs above 2" and MUCAPE
of 3000-4000 J/kg) northeastward. The deep layer lift impinging
into these thermodynamics will continue to fuel convective
development, and recent MRMS hourly rainfall has already exceeded
2 inches in the strongest cores.

There is high confidence that thunderstorms will continue into the
morning, although the footprint of heaviest rainfall continues to
be somewhat uncertain. The high-res CAMs are all in agreement that
stripes of heavy rainfall will occur both just north of the front
where an MCV tracking across Lake Michigan will locally accelerate
inflow to enhance the isentropic upglide, as well from northeast
Illinois into northwest Indiana where the most impressive moisture
flux occurs on the LLJ convergence. With rainfall rates climbing
above 2"/hr within the deeper convection, any repeating cells or
training of heavy rain could create 3-5" of rain with locally
higher amounts (5-10% chance for more than 5 inches according to
both HREF and REFS).

There is a slightly higher risk of the heaviest rain occurring
across IL/IN than in lower MI due to a higher training potential,
but much of this region is already vulnerable from recent heavy
rainfall and compromised FFG. While there continues to be some
uncertainty as to whether the additional heavy rain can
efficiently overlap recent rain footprints (and accompanying
reduced FFG) anywhere these intense rain rates can train or
repeat, a flash flood risk will exist.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9yu8_EXu4Xev9kiDBcoAiz8XUu3zzG-G_e5CtRjgaoStnMACvh9e5rCxJBHzFmHyWUu3UiAVHNVBhTu27ljygE2L0aM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...DVN...GRR...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...
MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43388619 43288462 42328374 41248414 40558499
40388538 40188600 40338745 40728868 41338920
42388859 43078784

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 10 15:37:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 101537
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-102000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0995
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1136 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...Western PA...Much of Western & Northern
WV...Southern Half of OH...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101535Z - 102000Z

SUMMARY...Efficient but fast moving convection into western slopes
of Appalachians possible to exceed hourly FFG (1-1.5"/hr), while
flanking line likely to see redevelopment that may repeat across
areas of slightly higher FFG, but with localized totals of 3-4"
possible, flash flooding becomes possible here as well.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and GOES-E Visible imagery shows a
mature but compact MCS across NE PA nearing SW NY with a broad
northwesterly flow around the SW quadrant is is providing strong
moisture convergence through the Upper Ohio River Valley.
Enhanced moisture has streamed ahead of the wave through the
Valley bringing upper 60s to low 70s Tds even into the higher
western slopes/ridges and with some early morning sun, temps are
nearing low 80s and supporting SBCAPEs of 2000-2500+ J/kg. The
deep layer moisture pooled through the valley is also above normal
with total through depth around 1.75" though with most in the
lowest levels where convergence is maximized; loading is
supporting efficient rainfall production. Upstream observations
note .75-1.25" totals in 30 to 60 minutes and with continued
cooling trends/overshooting tops with broadening reflectivity,
expect similar 1-1.5" in the 30-60 minute time period across W PA
and western WV over the next hour or so. FFG values in the area
are 1-1.5" with 3hr FFG less than 2", suggesting the rates in
steep terrain may result in scattered incidents of flash flooding.

Upstream across SW, central and southern Ohio; there is a strong
cluster with elongated orientation to the mean flow from Licking
to Logan county, currently... this will start to intersect with
the south-end convection of the main convergence line over
Licking/Perry county, which could induce localized issues, though
FFG is naturally slightly higher across the area closer to
2"+/3hrs... which is about where observations plus hourly totals
will near but maybe not exceed initially. However, VWP through
the region shows highly confluent flow through depth along the
upwind flanking end; combine this with the area starting to move
into a broadening 500-1000mb thickness trough, supports
propagation vectors to reduce to less than 5kts with some
convergence along the upwind edge in SW OH. So with increasingly
unstable air upstream across IND and N KY with southwesterly
inflow orthogonal to the training line (near surface) but veering
confluent inflow aloft is highly suggestive of favorable
backbuilding and then NW to SSE (note turning) training
convection. Total PWats are slightly higher and instability will
further build into the 3000 J/kg increasing vertical strength/low
level moisture flux convergence into the updrafts with rates
increasing to near/locally above 2"/hr. Ideal training will
result in 3-4" totals which would even exceed 3 & 6 hr FFG.

However, there is high uncertainty within the evolution of this
cluster and then new additional development later this morning
into the afternoon. Some suggest the storms would not even exist
now; and therefore would further delay development (due to
capping) and new cells would develop further north and east
(HRRR/FV3/RRFS). Others suggest strong inflow orthogonal to the
outflow boundary and stronger cold pools will propagate the line
further southwest perhaps into SE IND/N KY (ARW2/NamNest). At
this time, the most conservative, middle ground solution is the
12z ARW which also has flaws compared to current RADAR/Satellite
trends but also appears more reasonable than the most aggressive
solutions though the overall line appears to be weakening relative
to the ARW solutions too.

Bottom line, there is solid potential but confidence is low for
the upstream area for prolonged training and may need to update
the MPD as trends unfold and confidence increases; however, the
rainfall efficiency/short-term rates have much higher confidence
for localized flash flooding issues across the western slopes of
the Appalachians in the next few hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_I8sE_xMOAPdhTP1MdMSmuTcspb2uxyDrFsS12anmS3ZR8-XFFcFFEtxgbO5gP7c9hEIU6ADlX7FcIUX_W_2BmO7QQI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...ILN...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41077989 41077920 40567874 39847921 39007980
38448052 38178159 38288252 38768366 39308436
39898470 40388459 40568404 40478343 40198275
39978172 40388095 40788036

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 10 18:07:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 101807
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-102330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0996
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
206 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...East-central GA...Central SC...Southeast NC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101805Z - 102330Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, intense thunderstorms within deep moisture
axis will have limited flow for significant organization but
efficient pulse-like cycles capable of 2-2.5"/hr rates. Weak but unidirectional flow suggests some repeating or colliding outflow
boundaries may result in localized higher totals, especially near
sea-breeze interaction. Isolated to widely-scattered localized
flash flooding is considered possible afternoon to evening.

DISCUSSION...RAP analysis and CIRA LPW denote a deep layer
moisture axis across central GA, central SC into southeast NC with
broad 2.25-2.4" total PWats. Solid insolation has resulted in
temperatures rising into the low 90s and with modified 12z RAOB
soundings, become supportive of 3000-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Deep
layer flow is also parallel to the axis of moisture but is very
weak with limited inflow and barring some exposure to a dual "jet"
structure over Southern NC with right entrance to 45kt 250mb jet
and left exit to 40kt jet across the northern portions of
MS/AL/GA; organization will be limited. Still, strong updrafts
and ample moisture will support efficient deep layer tropical shower/thunderstorm activity capable of 2-2.5"/hr rates with maybe
one or two updraft cycles before kicking outflows north and south
to initiate new development.

While the flow/steering is weak, it still remains unidirectional
and generally parallel to the moisture/instability axis. This
suggest isolated mergers or short-term repeating is possible for
residency to reach 90+ minutes supporting highly focused and
widely scattered 3"+ totals which depending on intersection with
towns/cities may result in low-end but sufficient rapid inundation
flooding. This risk slightly increases toward the location of
best divergence aloft in the dual jet structure in SE NC, but
mainly because the sea-breeze will be slowly retrograding with the
westerly flow...further suggesting further increase in
time/residency at a random location or two further east in the
area of concern. All considered flash flooding is possible, but
isolated to widely scattered and highly focused.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5FUAmGdfzQzja-85916I7zMqnjzwxk0JTM1CbAVIBdIi03GzatJ-YklJl0jXlwkOGq2zuG1OAzbBO9hbUi_wVjtPTAU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35397714 35177643 34757623 34487661 34417729
34047774 33837788 33727817 33587874 33087914
32797997 32878128 32948257 33098354 33908365
34288230 34558104 34768025 35277842

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 10 18:51:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 101850
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-110030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0997
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
249 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101849Z - 110030Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to advance
south and east this afternoon across portions of the central
Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic. A localized flash flood threat
will exist, including for the urban I-95 corridor from northern VA
through southeast PA and much of central and northern NJ.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery shows a long-lived MCS
advancing across central WV through far western MD and up through
central PA. This activity will be moving downstream in to an
increasingly unstable environment across the Piedmont and coastal
plain areas of the Mid-Atlantic, including the sensitive I-95
urban corridor.

MLCAPE values from south-central WV through northern VA and into
southern PA are upwards of 2500 J/kg, with PWs locally near 1.75
inches. This coupled with as much as 30 to 40 kts of effective
bulk shear should promote convective sustenance with the MCS.
Additional cell development is possible out ahead of it near the
more favored southerly flow convergence zones near the northern
Chesapeake Bay region and also the more orographically favored
areas of north-central to northeast MD, south-central to southeast
PA, and into central and northern NJ.

The latest hires CAMS are not doing the best job in handling the
current spatial character or overall intensity of the MCS, but the
environment is conducive for the ongoing convection and additional
cells to produce rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour. The overall
forward propagation of the MCS activity will tend to mitigate the
threat for flash flooding, but sufficient orographic focus of
convective cells, and at least some episodic instances of
cell-training may allow for some spotty 2 to 3 inch rainfall
totals.

This would favor concerns for localized flash flooding, and
especially along the more sensitive I-95 urban corridor.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7g_48oSa83h7om7Fd0r98to_7WcLmiZ4Yg4q6P6iyByvHGR5AIgbDdSW1UxXOwa5b1KOexWKLF2kX-MtCVrVZjn4eSY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ALY...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PBZ...PHI...
RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41777534 41717427 41197374 40107384 39177466
38187609 37577781 37387902 37328071 37718180
38118217 38568203 38768151 38828026 39347882
40277743 41217640

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 10 20:01:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 102001
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-110200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0998
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...Southwest U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102000Z - 110200Z

SUMMARY...Scattered monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will
foster a threat again for isolated to scattered areas of flash
flooding. The normally dry washes, slot canyons and burn scar
locations will be at greatest risk for impacts going through early
this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W visible satellite imagery along
with LightningCast data shows convective initiation taking place
along the Mogollon Rim of AZ and also adjacent areas of southwest
UT. Some hints of CI are also showing up across portions of
southwest CA involving the Peninsular Range. Strong diurnal
heating through solar insolation is promoting enhanced
surface-based instability parameters with SBCAPE values across
portions of western AZ upwards of 2000 to 3000 J/kg.

PWs are elevated across the region, and especially north of the
Gulf of CA across southeast CA and southwest AZ where values of
1.75+ inches are noted. These are a solid 1 to 2 standard
deviations above normal and this moisture coupled with the
increasing boundary layer instability will promote high rainfall
rates capable of reaching 1.5 inches in as little as 30 minutes
with the stronger convective cells that develop.

The visible satellite imagery shows two very well-defined MCVs
involving portions of far southern NV and northwest AZ. This
energy combined with differential heating and orographics should
facilitate convective growth over the next several hours. Adjacent
areas near the Mogollon Rim and also down across the Peninsular
Range of southwest CA should see an environment conducive for
convection to develop and expand in coverage as well.

It should be noted that the latest RAP analysis shows a belt of
about 30 kts of effective bulk shear across central and southern
AZ, and this may help drive some organization to convection that
initially focuses near the Mogollon Rim, but then advances
westward over the open deserts and toward more populated/urbanized
areas including Phoenix.

Some spotty 2 to 3 inch rainfall totals will be possible where any
storms tend to become anchored near areas of higher terrain.
Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible as
a result, with the normally dry washes, slot canyons and burn scar
locations at greatest risk as usual for impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-t2_wALDzsDb1YhDSVhiemJPrQtdv0oEGrxi0OsalkgXNYU_B0-id-x_iuQSgXEdKId_clhrspPwiT6EguvsFSpQDWw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...LKN...LOX...PSR...SGX...SLC...
TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38951154 38681074 37971051 36701110 35931110
35361077 34851017 34550951 33860869 32430859
31410933 31311131 31871333 32211483 32291624
32651694 33551725 34181809 34761797 34791716
35071656 35681649 37021629 38351481 38891316

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 11 00:23:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110023
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-110615-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0999
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
822 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110022Z - 110615Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms with high rainfall rates will
expand in coverage going into the overnight hours. Cell-training
concerns will exist, and this will promote a general likelihood
for areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The early evening GOES-E IR/WV suite shows a
low-amplitude mid to upper-level shortwave trough traversing
central and northern IL with some evidence of a weak MCV just
ahead of it moving into western IN. This energy coupled with a
gradually strengthening low-level jet by later this evening should
help facilitate a developing axis of heavy showers and
thunderstorms.

Already the airmass is extremely unstable across northern IL down
through central IN and into western OH, with MLCAPE values of 4000
to 5000 J/kg. This extreme instability is being aided by very high
surface dewpoints reaching into the mid to upper 70s. Overall, PWs
are on the order of 1.75 to 2.0 inches, and this combination of
moisture and extreme instability will favor an environment
conducive for extreme rainfall rates.

There has been some evidence of a warm nose near 800 mb (as
evidenced by the 18Z KDVN RAOB) in association with an EML that
was tending to suppress surface-based convection over the last
several hours. However, recent radar and satellite trends finally
show convection developing and expanding in coverage across parts
of northern IL and northern IN as the upstream shortwave energy
arrives. This energy coupled with a slowly strengthening westerly
low-level jet and the strong downstream pool of instability should
promote a further expansion of heavy shower and thunderstorm
activity over the next several hours.

An excellent environment will be in place overnight for
cell-training given alignment of convection with the westerly
deeper layer steering flow. As some cold pool activity becomes
established, this may allow for convection to lose some latitude
in time and drop more to the southeast. Generally areas from
northern IL through northern IN and down through central OH and
possibly western WV will be at risk at least going through 06Z.
Additional cell-training rounds of convection will be likely after
this time frame across the Upper OH Valley.

Rainfall rates of up to 2 to 3 inches/hour are expected with the
stronger storms, with some localized storm totals of 3 to 5 inches
possible where cell-training occurs. These heavier totals are
likely to be in relatively narrow swaths. Areas of flash flooding
will be likely given the high rainfall rates and storm total
potential.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!73v6MBEYypnjrDgMi2nTyVx8UAK4505GAF7h1cdPcJfSFHvX9i-SoIYoDlM1pORLJ7IUgDkN0PS19QagdlfLwXixW8M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...LOT...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41898657 41758513 41458370 40828189 40318080
39878031 39448016 38998041 38708133 39018247
39798432 40318557 41078781 41718777

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 11 01:37:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110137
FFGMPD
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-110600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1000
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
935 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...Northern NY...Northern VT...Northern NH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110135Z - 110600Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue across
portions of northern NY and northern New England over the next few
hours. Some localized cell-training may result in some areas of
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar and satellite imagery shows a couple
bands of loosely organized convection impacting portions of
northern NY and northern New England as a shortwave trough digging
across southeast Ontario and southern Quebec amplifies into the
St. Lawrence River Valley. Meanwhile, a warm front is attempting
to lift northeastward up across New England as surface low
pressure approaches southern Quebec.

A nose of MLCAPE values reaching 1500+ J/kg as edged into northern
NY and is combining with 30 to 40 kts of effective bulk shear to
promote some storm-scale organization. The activity is also be
influenced by areas of higher terrain/orographics and deeper layer
ascent associated with DPVA.

The combination of these ingredients will support convection
continuing for at least a few more hours, with multiple bands of
convection advancing across northern NY and also adjacent areas of
northern VT and northern NH. This will include the Green and White
Mountains. Some cell-training concerns may exist for at least a
couple of hours given the current nature of the activity.

Rainfall rates of up to 1 to 2 inches/hour, some localized storm
totals of 2 to 3+ inches will be possible. This may result in
there being some areas of flash flooding for the sensitive areas
of the higher terrain and adjacent slopes.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5azAGEb_3c7XhzwUfffthesQWyRdvJZSsEMPycDQ_fW_WjGmSzrMDKD_1DkiMeAfEIARdW4wsPh9YWk-c_hGPETsJ4M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BTV...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44997361 44997253 44997141 44527094 43947119
43687255 43807389 44157510 44507551 44927542

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 11 02:06:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110156
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-110730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1001
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
954 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...Southwest U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110154Z - 110730Z

SUMMARY...Scattered monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will
continue into the evening hours which will likely support some
additional areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows
scattered areas of cold-topped convection continuing to impact the
Southwest U.S., with some of the coldest/deepest convection
occurring over portions of central and southern AZ. MLCAPE values
vary a bit across the region, but are locally as high as 1500 to
2500 J/kg where the atmosphere has not been convectively
overturned yet. This is especially the case across southwest AZ.
Instability is also seen persisting over southeast CA, with a nose
of this aimed up into far southern NV and to a lesser extent
southwest UT.

A couple of MCVs are still in place over far southern NV and
southwest UT, and are generally drifting northward around the
western periphery of the subtropical ridge. They will still be
capable of working in tandem with the leftover instability and
orographics for some additional areas of convection over the next
few hours. However, generally the greatest remaining threat of
convection will be down across central and southern AZ where
elevated instability and as much as 30 to 40 kts of effective bulk
shear will favor convective sustenance and organization through
the remainder of the evening hours.

Rainfall rates with the continuing monsoonal shower and
thunderstorm activity may again be locally as high as 1.5 inches
in as little as 30 minutes. Some storms in radar imagery are also
showing some spotty evidence of backbuilding, and this will only
enhance the hourly rainfall potential. The latest experimental
WoFS guidance suggests additional rainfall totals of 2 to 2.5
inches where these stronger storms in central and southern AZ tend
to persist.

Given the current convective trends, additional areas of flash
flooding will be likely for at least a few more hours, and
especially across areas of central and southern AZ. The threat
will be more isolated across far southern NV and southern UT.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!96mVYIXEhbT6iQounQI_7l87cbpIJkc013f3j50nOplZVmU1iZAorUL1e8h6xuNcASR8S15n1bcjYE2pqBMpk0fux7k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SGX...SLC...TWC...
VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38551135 37721034 36490991 35370914 34680870
34090849 33280845 32560861 31870897 31530937
31311009 31391153 31871333 32211483 32321599
32651673 33161697 33761709 34401703 35231682
36231624 37661484 38501293

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 11 05:50:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110549
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-111100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1002
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
149 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110548Z - 111100Z

Summary...An MCS featuring training thunderstorms with 2"/hr
rainfall rates will move steadily eastward overnight. This MCS
will create regions of 2-4" of rainfall with locally higher
amounts possible. This may result in flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E IR imagery tonight shows a broad cloud
shield with temps to -60C associated with an MCS dropping
southeast out of Ohio. Within this broad shield, locally cooler
cloud tops reaching below -70C are reflective of still
strengthening updrafts within thunderstorms embedded within the
larger convective cluster. Recent hourly rainfall from MRMS within
these thunderstorms has been above 2"/hr, which through training
has created 6-hr QPE of 2-4", with a local maxima near Roseville
and New Lexington, OH of more than 6". Multiple flash flood
warnings are already in effect for this MCS.

The environment will remain supportive of this MCS tracking
steadily E/SE the next several hours. 850mb inflow of around 30
kts is generally from the west, but this is favorable for
thermodynamic transport as PWs upstream are 1.7 to 1.9 inches
collocated with MUCAPE above 2000 J/kg. This is providing a focus
for convective development along the convergent nose stretching
from eastern OH through western MD, with additional lift provided
via height falls downstream of a shortwave trough digging out of
OH, with what appears to be an embedded MCV (in radar) leading to
locally accelerated flow and ascent as well.

The CAMs suggest this activity will begin to wane as it moves
east, and while the environment downstream into the eastern
Mid-Atlantic is less supportive than the Ohio Valley, the
continued advection of favorable thermodynamics could allow this
to progress much farther east than modeled. The recent HRRR,
RAP13, and Nam3km have at least some semblance of this occurring,
although they too seem to be under-doing the current activity. For
this reason confidence is modest as to how far east the excessive
rain threat will truly exist with this MCS, but with improving
thermodynamics supporting 2"/hr rainfall, and aligned Corfidi
vectors/mean 0-6km winds suggesting training, 2-4" of rain with
locally higher amounts is possible.

Additionally favorable for flash flooding is that this MCS will
track across vulnerable soils, both due to recent rainfall as well
as the general sensitivity of this region due to terrain. 3-hr FFG
is as low as 1" in the Central Appalachians/eastern Ohio Valley,
for which the HREF indicates has a 20-25% chance of exceedance. At
this time the greatest risk for additional flash flooding appears
to remain west of the Fall Line, but if this holds together more
substantially, downstream impacts may need to be messaged by
morning.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5D5WHoqtxbNYsfC9PR7mXpqfyYBn-L5IF3k8LH9gRTtC43Zz4m2gzJX5UI8x8LBTyJvkeVlL4TWljmyjVuduO1eoODY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41478278 41358126 40667928 40477886 39817766
39367736 38947758 38157886 37858056 38328222
39988307

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 11 07:03:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110703
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-CAZ000-111200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1003
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Southern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110701Z - 111200Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to drift
westward overnight across southern Arizona. Hourly rainfall may
eclipse 1 inch in some areas, leading to instances of flash
flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic tonight shows renewed
convective development across far southwest New Mexico and into
southeast Arizona. This activity is blossoming downstream of a
modest mid-level impulse rotating westward beneath the monsoon
ridge. Additionally, an MCV is evident as a small cyclonic spin
embedded within a larger convective cluster over Pinal county.
This forcing for ascent is impinging into more robust
thermodynamics reflected by GPS measured PWS around 1.5-1.6 inches
overlapped with MUCAPE as high as 2000-3000 J/kg, and this is
resulting in recent MRMS hourly rainfall that has been as high as
0.75 to 1.25 inches.

As the shortwave and MCV continue to push west overnight, coverage
of thunderstorms is expected to increase once again. This is due
in part to the more favorable environment over south-central and
southwest Arizona, but also due to increasing bulk shear which may
reach 25-30 kts. This suggests storms could organize into clusters
to force locally enhanced ascent, and both the HREF probabilities
and the UA WRF indicate hourly rainfall could reach 1.5-2 inches
in a few locations, with the recent WoFS output also suggesting a
10% chance of 2 inches within its hourly ensemble probabilistic
output. 0-6km mean winds are expected to remain light around 5-10
kts, so although some chaotic motion is possible through any storm
interactions during cluster evolution, storm motions will
generally be slow to the west, leading to 1-2" of rain with
locally higher amounts (HREF neighborhood probabilities for 3"
10%, WoFS 90th% over 2").

While 7-day rainfall has been scattered across this area, 1-hr FFG
remains low at 0.75-1.00" for which the HREF and REFS both
indicate a modest chance for exceedance (10-15% and 15-25%,
respectively). The greatest exceedance probabilities occur in the
next few hours before the combination of nocturnal influence and
convective overturning cause this activity to wane. Until that
occurs however, the risk for flash flooding will continue.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4cZh5Ke_6JEKBPuZiWb4lGStKq4qosZwi9RGCqs8nkoCg4wxV1mHZc1M5oYX_YBAYDPxlwRGoygwCFq8Mq0AjllLgew$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34481443 34291254 33851098 33040939 32150887
31340935 31071002 31101029 31211130 31561235
32051380 32361450 32651485

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 11 07:48:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110748
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-111300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1004
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110746Z - 111300Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand along a stationary
front early this morning. Rainfall rates within this convection
will likely reach 1-2"/hr, leading to 2-3" of rain with locally
higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this morning shows a
few clusters of thunderstorms blossoming across the Upper Midwest
and Lower Great Lakes. Two clusters, one across northern Indiana
and another in southern Wisconsin have produced MRMS hourly
rainfall as much as 1", and while coverage so far has been
generally isolated, a rapid uptick in LightningCast probabilities
draped from far southeast Minnesota into far northwest Ohio
suggests additional development is likely very soon.

The overlap of forcing and thermodynamics are favorable in this
region for widespread heavy rainfall rates. A shortwave trough
ejecting from northeast Iowa will help to accelerate the low-level
jet (LLJ) to produce isentropic ascent atop a stationary boundary
analyzed by WPC. Additionally, this LLJ will transport impressive thermodynamics northeast, with PWs progged to approach 2" by
daybreak along a pinched MUCAPE gradient from 1000-3000 J/kg. This
will support both an expansion and intensification of
thunderstorms through early morning, reflected by HREF
neighborhood probabilities climbing to above 20% for 2"/hr rates.

Although the CAMs are quite different with their coverage the next
several hours, the ingredients suggest that thunderstorms will
expand first along/north of the stationary front, and then may sag
slightly south on outflows and in response to the veering of the
LLJ. Regardless of the exact footprint, propagation vectors
aligned to the mean winds, and to the boundary, suggest a high
threat for training/repeating of these rain rates. This will pose
an increasing risk for flash flooding, but especially where any
cells repeat across the more vulnerable FFGs due to urban
influence or where recent rainfall has been most prolific.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9rdrC22sou7QXnYw23Wj2oyrZBhm6FyOPaO89zcU1ZoCJT1C39LQlPKG4rHE3ySo_mk-AJyU2HA0BvkbaW6tK2bGo38$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...CLE...DTX...DVN...GRR...ILN...IND...IWX...
LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42939030 42918924 42538735 42268546 42138439
41688343 40728267 40048277 39618320 39588435
40168642 41138894 41979049 42559086

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 11 08:36:56 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110836
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-111400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1005
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
435 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the Central Plains and Upper Midwest
from South Dakota through Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110834Z - 111400Z

Summary...Thunderstorms developing downstream of a potent
shortwave will expand and intensify through the early morning.
Rainfall rates will likely eclipse 2"/hr at times, which through
training could produce 2-4" of rain with locally higher amounts.
Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E water vapor imagery this morning shows a
potent shortwave moving across far southeast South Dakota towards
western Iowa. This shortwave is tracking within generally W/NW
mid-level flow, nearly paralleling a surface stationary boundary
analyzed by WPC. The resulting height falls and PVA are impinging
into extreme thermodynamics characterized by MUCAPE above 4000
J/kg overlapped with PWs of 1.7 to 2.0 inches to support intense
rainfall rates which have eclipsed 1.25"/hr according to MRMS.
Although convective coverage is generally isolated so far, a noted
expansion of the LightningCast probabilities suggests more
widespread coverage will develop apace.

As the shortwave continues to track steadily E/SE, it will not
only drive locally enhanced ascent, but also force acceleration
and local backing of the LLJ. Recent VWPs indicate 850mb wind
speeds have reached 40-50 kts across NE/IA, which is efficiently
isentropically ascending the stationary front while also
transporting the impressive thermodynamics northward into the path
of this shortwave (noted clearly within the GOES-E 850-700 LPW
fields.) This will fuel widespread thunderstorm development in the
next few hours, which is supported by most of the high-res CAMs.
With bulk shear expected to be 35-45 kts, this convection should
organize into an MCS and then push rapidly E/SE through morning.
This may limit the rainfall amounts despite a 20-40% chance of
rainfall rates exceeding 2"/hr, but additional development
downstream within the WAA wing could prolong rainfall before the
shortwave sweeps through. Where this occurs, 6-hr rain of 2-4" is
likely, with locally 5+" possible (30% chance from both the HREF
and REFS) although 5" probabilities from the WoFS are notably
absent with the 90th% just being over 3", so amounts this high may
be quite isolated.

Even so, parts of this area, especially northern IA and far
southern MN have received 300+% of normal rainfall the last 7
days. This has compromised soils and reduced FFG to as low as
1.5-2". While any of these intense rain rates could cause flash
flood related impacts, the greatest threat where be will any
training can occur atop these more vulnerable soils.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6B3-j6gs-L4zjbS4Tonha6kCrMJ9DNnCWtEfuq2FS0Jwty8KQ5XrTDscnfFD2HrcMJBaEdz0avg7nL-WYNGqQp5fDT4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...MKX...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44809553 44629393 44099188 43179027 42539028
42029102 41679236 41669240 41649295 41769446
42149614 42679734 43279848 44049797 44619682

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 11 09:46:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110946
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-111300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1006
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
545 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Ohio Valley into the Central
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110944Z - 111300Z

Summary...Thunderstorms will continue to develop across the Ohio
Valley this morning with rain rates of 1-2"/hr. Through training,
this could produce 2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts and
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this morning shows
new thunderstorms rapidly blossoming across parts of southern Ohio
and into West Virginia. This area was recently worked over by an
MCS, but persistent thermodynamic advection on W/SW 925-850mb
winds have allowed for MUCAPE recovery sufficient for this renewed
convective growth. A shortwave exiting from southern Indiana is
providing additional ascent while locally backing the low-level
inflow as well, leading to slow moving lines of thunderstorms that
have hourly rainfall estimated from KILN of nearly 2 inches.

The CAMs are struggling with this new convective growth this
morning, so confidence in the evolution for the next several hours
is modest. However, upstream PWs measured via GPS are around
1.7-1.8 inches, or above the 90th percentile for the date, and
this is collocated with a ribbon of MUCAPE above 3000 J/kg which
has pooled south of a stationary front. The advection of this
environment has allowed for the aforementioned environmental
recovery, into which the shortwave and the convergence of the
low-level winds are driving the thunderstorms. Mean 0-6km winds
are aligned to the Corfidi vectors and this convergence axis,
suggesting the impressive training already ongoing will continue
for a few more hours. Additionally, Corfidi vectors collapsing to
just around 5 kts indicate backbuilding potential, and with rain
rates of 1-2"/hr, this could produce corridors of rain which
exceed 3" (20-30% chance from the REFS, which appears to have a
better handle on the ongoing convection).

Some of this area received excessive rainfall already overnight,
especially southeast Ohio into central West Virginia. This has
lowered the 3-hr FFG to less than 0.5" locally, but more broadly
it is 1-1.5". While the heaviest rainfall this morning should
hopefully stay just west of the hard-hit areas overnight, any
training of this rain will create new, or exacerbate ongoing,
flash flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8OwstVKC7OpV39uX9fsLQFpUSEWNNeyl3w0_4LWDBX5mLbewbfKkLFpAMT9U33wtgOLxMRWf154c9etsroNulyIXgQw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40488374 40388280 39378130 38738042 38358009
37838007 37348061 37178182 37658321 38458419
39088456 40018438

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 11 13:03:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 111303
FFGMPD
PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-111900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1007
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
902 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Central IN...Southern OH...Central WV...Northeast
KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 111301Z - 111900Z

Summary...Multiple thunderstorm complexes are expected to track
southeast from Indiana to West Virginia through the early
afternoon hours. Convective training across portions of this
region could produce additional 2-3 inch rainfall totals with
locally higher amounts, and given highly saturated grounds from
earlier rainfall, instances of flash flooding are likely.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars, in conjunction with infrared
satellite imagery, indicate three relatively distinct convective
complexes across the outlook area this morning, each of which is
associated with a low-mid level vortmax embedded in enhanced WNW
flow. The strongest complex is currently over east-central Indiana
into western Ohio, and persistent back-building convection has
been ongoing over north-central Indiana for the past couple of
hours given weak Corfidi vectors aligned with the surface-6km
flow. Rainfall rates on the order of 2+ inches per hour have been
noted with the most persistent convection, and regional
observations indicate 2-4 inch rainfall totals since midnight
across portions of southeast Ohio and also west of Fort Wayne,
Indiana.

The latest CAM guidance suite continues to struggle with an
accurate depiction of the ongoing convection and its expected
evolution over the next several hours, with the HRRR and RRFS too
light compared to current radar imagery, and also some differences
with latitudinal placement of the complexes. The overall
thermodynamic environment remains favorable for a continuation of
these storms with high rainfall rates. A deep reservoir of
2000-3000 mixed layer CAPE exists just to the south of these
complexes, and strong theta-e advection from the WSW will continue
to fuel the convection, and PWs on the order of 1.75 to 2 inches.
Some instances of flash flooding are likely, especially across
areas that have received excessive rainfall over the past 24 hours.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9UD7EGV3HKdso0JV_SurUTGHIJ-y8e59mrPzf5Pah5a2y3WPl-NeoEe6Rlbvh7lUnGGcQIJy6UTx-xCuyHaycz2q_s0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...LOT...LWX... PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41298682 41218614 41148549 40928404 40838324
40678231 40388133 40038075 39488011 38957983
38387976 37778010 37358093 37388194 37768284
38628431 39308532 39928621 40388676 40718717
41138721

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 11 15:20:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 111520
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-112000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1008
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1117 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Southern WI...Northern IL...Northern
IN...Southern MI...Northwestern OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111517Z - 112000Z

SUMMARY...An MCS tracking across northern Illinois late this
morning will support the development of additional convection with
high rainfall rates through 19Z across the outlook area. Some
instances of flash flooding will be possible with the most
peristent thunderstorm activity.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars show a long lived MCS
currently tracking across northern Illinois towards the greater
Chicago metro area. Meanwhile, a separate complex of storms has
rapidly increased in coverage and intensity across northwestern
Indiana, and recent radar scans are indicating these separate
complexes are starting to congeal into a single larger complex.
This is resulting in more back building storms with longer periods
of higher rainfall rates, in some instances over 2 inches per
hour. Mixed layer CAPE near 3000 J/kg per recent SPC mesoanalysis
and PWs near 2 inches are present near and just south of the
ongoing convection.

Although severe weather has been the primary threat thus far west
of the Rockford area, the potential for flash flooding will
increase over the new few hours as additional storms develop ahead
of the main line. There is good overall agreement in the latest
CAM guidance suite, including the current WoFS, for a swath of
additional 1-3 inch totals through 19Z, with much of this falling
within a 60-90 minute time period for any given location. Rainfall
rates should taper off after the main squall line moves through.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_Wq-LlZJwmMq30OYjMOue4ydhAB4BSE3ItVuUnSerhdLSiUx0b3bnef3gJTEPBi6Bufw7vCIJrdaQqCzo2YeS63ZJIA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...DVN...GRR...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...
MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43318927 43248664 43038547 42558324 41458328
40818463 40348680 40228898 40738998 41409004
42048937 42958963

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 11 18:25:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 111825
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-120000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1009
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Eastern CA...Southern NV...Western AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111822Z - 120000Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms developing in an anomalously
moist airmass are expected to increase in coverage through the
afternoon hours, with the heaviest and slower moving storms
possibly resulting in some instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Convection has already started to develop across
portions of the Desert Southwest with plenty of monsoonal moisture
in place across the region. PWs are on the order of 1 to 2 inches
across the outlook area from the lastest SPC mesoanalysis, coupled
with ample instability given 500-1500 J/kg mixed layer CAPE.
Additionally, early morning convection across central and southern
Arizona has left behind a couple of weak MCVs noted in recent
visible satellite imagery.

Once the mid and high level clouds from this morning's storms
break up further, additional solar insolation and any existing
outflow boundaries will likely aid in the development of
additional storms later this afternoon given the moist and
unstable airmass present. The current CAM guidance suite has
greater coverage of showers/storms across the Peninsular Range and
also western portions of the Mogollon Rim. Some instances of flash
flooding will be possible across brun scars or other vulnerable
terrain areas through 00Z this evening, especially for the slower
cells that develop.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5bEhdGMHT6-1KaLqW700a0GeDgk3Z_eHCEH4Rf2OGMZdCP2Wvd94L3fJr0ti49MIy1nZF9OaG-2KhgA2ZXAxJBtXhDo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...SGX...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36891405 36891304 36881183 36771077 36101020
35291011 34231077 34341209 34201277 34021300
33781317 33351325 32781307 32431316 32241359
32451489 32531588 32561646 33401684 34361701
34861677 35251649 35761619 36201579 36711494

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 11 18:30:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 111830
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-112330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1010
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
229 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Far Southern WV...Western VA...Western
NC...Eastern TN...Far Eastern KY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111830Z - 112330Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving cells prior to a quick moving squall line
through rough terrain should support 1.5"-1.75"/hr rates and
scattered totals of 1.5-3" which may result in localized flash
flooding conditions.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery and Regional RADAR mosaic
depict a mature squall line moving south-southeast through
southern WV attm. Ample deep layer moisture of 1.5-1.75" (based
on elevation) forward convergence along the squall line will
continue to support localized 1-1.5"/hr rates as the line quickly
moves though. Given complex terrain and hourly FFG values of
1-1.5"/hr scattered incidents of flash flooding continue to remain
a risk as it tracks into far W VA and NW NC in the next few hours.

Downstream, a solid cu field across the southern Appalachians
extends into the eastern foothills of North Carolina with a
distinct edge extending from near KHLX to KMWK to KGSO. This
delineates a stark surface Td drop of 5 to 6 degrees from the
mid-60s in SW VA to the low 70s even through the higher terrain of
the Smokies. With full insolation, MLCAPEs have risen to
2500-3000 J/kg across the unstable area south of the dewpoint
boundary (while remaining capped northward). Aloft, shortwave
energy that has driven the forward propagating squall line will
also provide broad scale ascent to further convective initiation along/downstream of the squall line. These cells should develop
and be very slow moving initially given the upstream
height-falls/forcing approaching. The ample moisture of 1.5-1.75"
and 15-20kts of southwesterly inflow should help to support rates
of 1.5-1.75"/hr and with residency of an hour or so, widely
scattered totals of up to 2-2.5" are possible. Combine this with
the approaching squall line and focused totals of 3"+ are
possible. FFG values are slightly higher in the Southern
Appalachians compared to areas further north (~1.5") and increase
to ~2"/hr and 2-2.5"/3hrs through the foothills to suggest, these
totals may result in localized incident(s) of flash flooding
through the evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!88yinispqaq3euv7PxLWbZJPKXR3dciB0Pz9X3S1n-VPHv--nfViAFwV3lWpwNoJkF_rvsyJaZu5sLJiC3Bfc1QeEdU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...MRX...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37548152 37508031 36957984 35967885 35617916
34918037 35448196 35088402 35628440 36378387
37078322 37428262

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 11 19:18:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 111917
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-120015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1011
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Central Indiana...Southern Ohio...Northeast Kentucky...Southern WV...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111915Z - 120015Z

SUMMARY...Fast moving squall line with sub-hourly 1-1.5" totals
may result in urban flooding conditions through this evening,
until reaching compromised soils in foothills of Central
Appalachians.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic depicts an intense compact
shortwave/MCV crossing northern Indiana at this time. Along the
forward flank of the MCV/cyclone a mature squall line exists from
Pickway to N Butler county OH and across to Shelby, IND. Severe
winds are main concern (please refer to SPC MCD 1926 for more
details); yet, the strong convergence along the leading edge is
ingesting solid deep layer moisture environment near 2" of TPW.
Flux convergence will support very high rainfall production, but
residency is likely to limit totals to less than 1.5". However,
this may come at 15-30 minute range which would be a problem for
locally prone flashy locations and urban/hydrophobic ground
conditions. This will change as the line reaches the lower
foothills of the central Appalachians in Southern to Southeast
Ohio and WV where earlier heavy rainfall have reduced soil
capacity and lowered FFG values to below 1" for much of the the
area with spots lower than .5". As such, flash flooding will once
again become possible across those areas again later this evening.

Currently, inflow to the system is very oblique, almost parallel
with VWP showing nearly westerly inflow from 925-850mb across E
IL, S IND and N KY limiting the potential for flanking line
development at this time. There is some weak convergence for some
development from Ford, IL to Benton, IND counties, this
convergence trof along the inflow streamlines toward the MCV in N
IND is expecting some weaker backing across the Ohio Valley toward
SW flow after 22z. This should increase orthogonal isentropic
ascent over the flanking outflow boundary and increase overall
convection. The uncertainty remains on level of development with
surface rooted convection looking a bit less likely than elevated
convection in an axis a bit further eastward. Either level, deep
layer steering will be parallel to the boundary, orthogonal to the
inflow allowing for a higher potential for NW to SE training band
into the later evening hours, more likely at or after 00z. If
the axis is more elevated, it would more likely overlap areas
affected with the earlier rounds over the last few days,
reaggravating flash flooding potential.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5mhVsrbZLX2gNBWa92fVeGKzqeoedrzN_sL68NHWYzzHY9GDMX_e7ktScyFboKgEudnVI_Ll0jZN0TmV4UV6fpV6XJs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...LOT...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40718689 40488529 40098337 39748216 39368101
38837992 37938004 37258095 37168212 37538324
38448522 39458709 40098783 40558767

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 11 19:19:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 111919
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-120100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1011
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
318 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Central Indiana...Southern Ohio...Northeast Kentucky...Southern WV...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111920Z - 120100Z

SUMMARY...Fast moving squall line with sub-hourly 1-1.5" totals
may result in urban flooding conditions through this evening,
until reaching compromised soils in foothills of Central
Appalachians.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic depicts an intense compact
shortwave/MCV crossing northern Indiana at this time. Along the
forward flank of the MCV/cyclone a mature squall line exists from
Pickway to N Butler county OH and across to Shelby, IND. Severe
winds are main concern (please refer to SPC MCD 1926 for more
details); yet, the strong convergence along the leading edge is
ingesting solid deep layer moisture environment near 2" of TPW.
Flux convergence will support very high rainfall production, but
residency is likely to limit totals to less than 1.5". However,
this may come at 15-30 minute range which would be a problem for
locally prone flashy locations and urban/hydrophobic ground
conditions. This will change as the line reaches the lower
foothills of the central Appalachians in Southern to Southeast
Ohio and WV where earlier heavy rainfall have reduced soil
capacity and lowered FFG values to below 1" for much of the the
area with spots lower than .5". As such, flash flooding will once
again become possible across those areas again later this evening.

Currently, inflow to the system is very oblique, almost parallel
with VWP showing nearly westerly inflow from 925-850mb across E
IL, S IND and N KY limiting the potential for flanking line
development at this time. There is some weak convergence for some
development from Ford, IL to Benton, IND counties, this
convergence trof along the inflow streamlines toward the MCV in N
IND is expecting some weaker backing across the Ohio Valley toward
SW flow after 22z. This should increase orthogonal isentropic
ascent over the flanking outflow boundary and increase overall
convection. The uncertainty remains on level of development with
surface rooted convection looking a bit less likely than elevated
convection in an axis a bit further eastward. Either level, deep
layer steering will be parallel to the boundary, orthogonal to the
inflow allowing for a higher potential for NW to SE training band
into the later evening hours, more likely at or after 00z. If
the axis is more elevated, it would more likely overlap areas
affected with the earlier rounds over the last few days,
reaggravating flash flooding potential.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6qn6yCI47iwVWFYszCeXlcWMuM3ixTPxrnR0obUTzYccN76rO8zk82BoUm4oajlsmBLPQj4wprUsnyakDm6ymnzamcE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...LOT...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40718689 40488529 40098337 39748216 39368101
38837992 37938004 37258095 37168212 37538324
38448522 39458709 40098783 40558767

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 11 22:06:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 112200
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-120200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1012
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
559 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Northeast PA...Northern NJ...Far Southern NY
including NYC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 112200Z - 120200Z

SUMMARY...Few scattered thunderstorms oriented for possible
repeating but crossing saturated soil conditions and urban zone
may result in localized 2-3" totals and possible flash flooding
conditions through early overnight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible and Regional RADAR mosaic shows
scattered convective development across northeast PA into northern
NJ. A weak surface low can be analyzed near KPOU along a well
defined surface stationary front that separates higher Tds air
(low 70s) to the south and low 60s to even some mid to upper 50s
across Upstate NY. The core of a 110kt jet is skirting north of
the area providing some weak divergence aloft, but also supporting
low level FGEN strengthening across the NY/PA line providing
sufficient deep layer moisture convergence along the tightening
PWat gradient in the area. Surface to 850mb cyclonic curvature
across the Poconos into Catskills even at 15kts has been
sufficient to provide ascent on conditionally unstable air mass
with 2000-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE. Solid 35-40kt effective bulk
shear along with RADAR trends suggests some weak rotation in the
scattered cells to further enhance low level moisture flux
convergence. RAP TPW analysis shows a bulge nosing northeastward
through N NJ with 1.75-1.9" values to feed the strengthening
updrafts. Currently cores are fairly narrow but are broadening
with time, likely to support 1.75-2"/hr rates soon. While mean
steering flow is 30-40kts, the flow is parallel to the boundary
and the orientation of the current development, suggestive of
possible repeating/training through the late evening hours.

This is a concern given recent heavy rainfall and saturated upper
soil profiles per NASA SPoRT with 0-40cm ratios in to the upper
60s/lower 70s reaching 90th percentiles for this time of year. As
such FFG values are highly variable, but spots less than 1"/hr
exist across N NJ, with much of the area at or below 2"/hr.
Additionally, broad urban area into NYC would naturally be prone
to intense rates. While slight southward propagation is expected
and may help to deflect prolonged repeating, overall totals of
2-3" can be expected across the area of concern and with low FFG
values, localized incidents of flash flooding are considered
likely.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7oUVAp7vLgQ4TIofBGnVuYrWMpZ9RxpmsbDVYdpdoqYf4_rhxibqC8i_GotAi9xb4_xMTtakpP5SWXt_HggBB1rFciI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41537662 41537580 41377398 41037330 40647333
40477388 40247394 40027401 40177473 40647580
41257661

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 11 22:38:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 112232
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-120400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1013
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
631 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona...Southwest New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112230Z - 120400Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving cells emanating from larger complex over
northern Mexico, likely to increase moisture flux and rainfall
production through the early overnight period. Hourly rates of
1-1.5"/hr and similar 1-2" localized may result in incidents of
localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows center of deep layer ridge
centered along the NM/CO line; while a stronger convective
cluster/complex and resultant MCV that developed in NW
Chihuahua/NE Sonora in Mexico is being drawn northwestward into
the US Desert Southwest. This is also helping to direct deeper
layer moisture northward moving the mid-level dry axis seen in
east-central AZ/west-central NM out of the area of concern and
increasing overall moisture values from less than 1" toward 1.25
and maybe locally 1.5" for lower elevations further west in S AZ.
In the lower levels stronger moisture confluence due to the
advancing MCV is filtering moisture out of the Gulf of California
through Sonora in strengthening southwesterly 850-700mb winds,
while surface to 850mb west to northwest low level flow is seen in
VWP across AZ emanating from the lower deserts of southern
Maricopa and W Pima county as well. Overall, this is increasing
instability nosing up from 1000 to 2000 J/kg along the SE
AZ/Mexico border.

The convergence and increase in moisture/unstable air has resulted
in some mountain convection development across Santa Cruz and
Cochise county with some hints starting across the Bootheel of NM
as well. As the MCV lifts north, convective expansion is expected
with rain rates increasing from .75"/hr toward 1-1.5"/hr. Cell
motions will be slow, but forward propagation into the weak inflow
may reduce residency time to less than 1-1.5 hours, so spotty 1-2"
totals are probable across portions of SE AZ and SW NM. Hard
ground conditions will likely see localized high-run off with
scattered incidents of flash flooding possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9_8yFqZbroN5zrFHCGZKCzV7xbh7Y4bAF_8AIwRkd-yfwY1OtofDglzZKxTxUOhiSwsdsld7VKWlf96kU43l9jyPwrQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32771017 32740871 32260694 31700661 31280807
31190861 31211002 31241103 31521164 32041173
32561132

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 11 23:20:56 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 112320
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-120500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1014
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
720 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...South-central IND...Central & Eastern
KY...Western VA...Northeast TN...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112320Z - 120500Z

SUMMARY...Repeating cells along old outflow boundary with strong
upstream developing bow/cluster to add sub-hourly 1-1.5" total may
result in scattered spots of 2-3" resulting in localized flash
flooding especially near urban centers and more rugged terrain

DISCUSSION...Active pattern of multiple quick moving bow echoes
continues to repeat through the Ohio River Valley into the
Cumberland Plateau. The second MCS is currently cross the central
Appalachians from S WV into W VA continuing severe winds
accompanied by intense burst of heavy rainfall, typically between
1-1.5" in less than 30-45 minutes. This is in the wake of an
initial decayed MCS that lowered FFG across much of the area with
lingering 100-200 cfs/sq.mi within MRMS Flash unit stream flows,
bringing them back up to 200-400 as the bow passes, reaggravating
flooding conditions.

In the wake of the second MCS, the cold pool helped to push
outflow boundary further southwest than initial expected through
southern IND into central KY. VWP depicts surface to 925 winds
have backed to southwesterly and generally orthogonal to the
boundary, as such scattered but slightly more elevated cells have
been filling in between the trailing flank near Perry/Leslie
county, back across central KY toward Casey to Meade county and
across the Ohio River to Crawford county, IND. The
advected/isentropically ascending air remains very unstable with
MLCAPE over 3500 J/kg allowing for scattered convective initiation
along the line. Updrafts are generally narrow due to weak
inflow/ascent, however, a stronger cluster over Martin county is
starting to bow out as well given the strong rear-inflow jet over
50-60kts. As such, stronger cold pool is increasing forward speed
of the bow and increasing moisture convergence to once again
result in a quick 1-1.5" total in less than 30-45 minutes.

This cluster should intersect areas affected by the weaker
isentropically forced scattered cells will result in scattered
pockets of 2-3" totals and given the heavy quick burst to end, may
result in localized flash flooding conditions given saturated
grounds. This would only be exacerbated in urban/hydrophobic
surfaces. Unlike further north with the second MCS, this third
Bowing MCS is moving through areas not affected by the first or
second round, so incidents of flash flooding may be more isolated
to scattered until reaching the more rugged terrain of the
Cumberland Plateau toward 03z. As such, flash flooding is
considered possible this evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_RZKTWTAL4BFNzhU0Rl9HXv7ZVdgSlnzgo6qPSSsL5V78q23zgCDsq19FUOrwgJJ-uuI4FN3p4wgnqQ1ERnGa2VZYu8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...MRX...PAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39168674 38828547 38498464 38198367 37878289
37628185 37508103 37178054 36278228 35698375
36618467 37348614 38258716 38728746 39088743

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 11 23:52:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 112352
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-120500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1015
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
751 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Northern Arizona...Central Western New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112350Z - 120500Z

SUMMARY...Scattered incidents of flash flooding remain possible
into the early overnight hours along western confluent edge of
deep layer ridge with spots of 1-1.5".

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery shows broad area of glaciated
cirrus within the confluent zone of 500mb flow on the southwest
edge of the deep layer ridge generally coincident with the central
and eastern portions of the Mogollon Rim in AZ into the Mogollon
Mountains of W NM. However, these older glaciated weakening or
dead cells produced outflows outward from the Rim both downslope W
and SW as well as further up into the San Francisco Plateau
providing sufficient convergence on the remaining unstable air
where 1000-1500 J/kg are being utilized with these new developing
cores. Given upstream stronger flow at 700mb, this is also
building eastward through west-central NM allowing for some
downstream repeating into E AZ as well. Still, persistent upslope
flow of 5-10kts will provide the best moisture flux and
convergence over the next few hours, perhaps resulting in
short-term effective stationary motions given inflow counters the
deep layer flow wanting cells to move NNW. Deep layer moisture
remains solid for monsoon at around 1 to 1.25" suggesting hourly
rates up to 1" and spots of 1-1.5" remain possible resulting in
scattered possible incidents of flash flooding through the
remainder of the evening into the early overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8TM-g7FfEwNXooLodUa-y_9r6_RePfS2oHK8M-n5OOIBBCQdq5fAqUaNZNQRezWvmNzWWoA5KHqW-Jpzv3ZDMqCw4rQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36831205 36201139 35411021 35150945 34910836
34470795 33930824 33540863 33130935 33101018
33641136 34631262 35811300 36741282

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 12 02:43:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 120243
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-120742-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1016
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1042 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...in and near Middle & Eastern TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120242Z - 120742Z

Summary...Cell mergers across the region could lead to hourly rain
amounts to 2.5", which could lead to widely scattered instances of
flash flooding.

Discussion...A line of thunderstorms is moving southward through
northeast TN and far southern KY. The line is moving down an
instability gradient, with the main instability pool across
portions of Western and Middle TN, where MUCAPE is 4000-4500 J/kg.
Effective bulk shear of 30 kts is organizing the convection. Out
ahead of the line, individual/less organized thunderstorms are
forming across Middle and Eastern TN as far as far northwest GA.
While inflow at 850 hPa is modest, near 15 kts, this is 2-3 times
the magnitude of the mean 850-400 hPa wind. Precipitable water
values are ~1.8".

The expectation is for cell mergers which would bring hourly rain
amounts up to 2.5" locally, which would be problematic over the
region as this would exceed the three hour flash flood guidance
values and over some of the more sensitive terrain of the
southernmost Appalachians. Another potential problem is that cell
training along a NW-SE or NNW-SSE axis as cells backbuild to the effective/outflow boundary, could become more established at the
850 hPa wind increases 5-10 kt by the end of the MPD period which
could make the flash flooding potential higher. Hourly amounts to
2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible, which could lead to
widely scattered instances of flash flooding.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-QzelA9jnxq2iWyUvQ6HQvEKaF9fqba2hozNeUmTvbEZhyY7RrCfYXbL9eVs2Uo8nBiXHbKiGlixLE_ebozxIhrYvO0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36908648 36618467 35848342 34638332 34148462
34608591 35808692

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 12 03:36:18 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 120336
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-120934-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1017
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1135 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of SD & NE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120334Z - 120934Z

Summary...A convective complex is expected to grow in scale
somewhat overnight. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals
to 4" are possible, which could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...A small cluster of elevated convection is moving
southeast through southwestern SD at the present time, where 700
hPa temperatures are 12-15C, near the edge of more significant
mid-level capping. While there has been some hail contamination,
once the values are adjusted somewhat downward, hourly rain
amounts appear to have peaked in the 1.5-2" range as of late.
Precipitable water values are towards 2". Effective bulk shear is
60 kts. The thunderstorms are moving through an environment of
3000 J/kg of MU CAPE.

The 00z GFS Galvez-Davison Index implies that the convective
complex could grow in scale until 06z or so, and there could be
some occasional redevelopment as it moves near the edge of the
mid-level capping inversion. While the guidance has a good signal
for heavy rainfall somewhere in this region, much of the guidance
is too far north to northeast. The 18z HREF pattern appears
closest, which is within the southern edge of the 00z HREF signal.
The expectation is for the convective complex to start turning
somewhat to the left which would be more aligned with the MU CAPE
gradient and try to orient closer to the 12C 700 hPa isotherm and
remain close to the 850 hPa confluence axis as the complex moves
increasingly east-southeast. Given the ingredients available,
hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible.
Heavy rain could occur within short periods of cell training,
possible cell mergers should any convective form at the leading
edge of the complex, or due to embedded mesocyclones. This degree
of rainfall would be most problematic in urban areas and outside
of the Sand Hills of NE.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9eqrl3vOKDKPqnxm1z0HrSo6c44Cu-m5dD6vs6U0YlvirDvZNNrxtZsOyzfI0QtYWW_Eq887R-jI3v2QP9knlsyRruI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...FSD...LBF...OAX...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 44590141 44229885 43209667 42179660 41909810
42210073 42980249 43620273

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 12 04:22:56 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 120422
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-120951-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1018
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1222 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...in and near portions of IN & Southwest OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120421Z - 120951Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall have redeveloped
across southeast IN. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local
totals to 4" could lead to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are redeveloping across
portions of IN, with activity in southeast IN starting to grow in
scale as they drop 1.5"+ in an hour. Precipitable water values
are ~1.7" Effective bulk shear is ~30 kts. An area of 4000+ J/kg
of MU CAPE is moving east into west-central IN.

The guidance shows the best 850 hPa confluence shifting from north
to south across the MPD area while the instability gradient shifts
east with time across IN into western OH. The mesoscale guidance
is not sold on this area being problematic for hours, however.
The big question mark is how far east the instability field is
going to be able to progress, which depends upon upscale growth.
The faster upscale growth occurs, the less eastward progress
convection make make across the MPD area. Given the available
ingredients, hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4"
are possible. This would exceed the three hourly flash flood
guidance values regionally. Because of questions concerning the
size of the heavy rain signal and its eastward
progression/redevelopment overnight, chose the flash flood
possible tag. Wherever heavy rain falls, flash flooding would be
possible over areas with partially if not completely saturated
soils. Flash flood occurrences could be widely scattered.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5u0_2kG1zmvZhvJ4SIPyoM68z5ucr7Q8bjoO_rfaXhgSclmo3dAud7o-9r757AqLMuc-urYdHOzJ1Kr_AnzZAX7ueyQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...IWX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41108662 40888526 39268390 38638453 39768615
40478668

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 12 04:52:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 120452
FFGMPD
AZZ000-121048-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1019
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1251 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120448Z - 121048Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are
possible overnight across portions of the Mogollon Rim and
southern AZ. Hourly rain amounts to 2" are possible wherever
cells can cluster/stall/merge.

Discussion...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are moving across
southeast AZ in the vicinity of an easterly wave and in
association with an outflow boundary. Precipitable water values
of ~0.8" lie across portions of the Mogollon Rim, with values of
2" across southwest AZ. The instability pattern appears tied to
the terrain and some of the deserts presently, with MU CAPE up to
3000 J/kg available a bit to the west and northwest of the cluster.

While short term trends in the convection could be downward across
southern AZ as an outflow boundary moves through a less unstable
area, there is concern early Wednesday morning that convection
could pick back up as it moves into the more unstable air of
southwest AZ. Also, thunderstorms southeast of Safford could show
a tendency to redevelop to the west-northwest within the higher
instability in and near the Mogollon Rim. Hourly rain amounts to
2" are possible wherever thunderstorms can stall, grow in
coverage, backbuilding, or merge. This would be a problem in
urban areas, burn scars, arroyos/dry washes, and box/slot canyons.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-wiThMcMG4-l1s0jJkaeZg9GgJUwHmVEBGsYUG-tRJnEFLNcLA5rvQJwp925ddzFiQ5onLI-3gAVkyxBdTe1FUNCehM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35721323 35541143 34460981 33310930 31340999
31221144 31721284 32311413 33341322 33031123
33071111 33121075 33691107 34511340

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 12 07:12:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 120712
FFGMPD
VAZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-121311-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1020
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...IN into eastern TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 120711Z - 121311Z

Summary...A broadening area of thunderstorms in eastern IN is
expected to shift south-southeast with time. Hourly rain amounts
to 2.5" with additional local totals to 5" should cause at least
scattered occurrences of flash flooding.

Discussion...A broadening area of elevated convection exists
across eastern IN at the present time to the east of an outflow boundary/thermal gradient across central and eastern IL. It has
developed quicker than the mesoscale guidance has suggested and
also has extended more southward than forecast. It is within an
area of moisture gradient which extends south from Michigan and
within a region of confluent westerly flow at 850 hPa. Hourly
rain amounts per radar imagery have broached 2" at times.
Precipitable water values of ~1.8" lie west of the complex. MU
CAPE is 3000-4000 J/kg across central IN. Effective bulk shear of
~30 kts has organized the band.

The 00z HREF, other than being a little slow in its southward
advance, has done a good job depicting the evolution of this
complex thus far, so used it to define the MPD region, accounting
for the hour of slowness noted through 07z. The complex is
expected to move south-southeast with time with convection forward
propagating within an area of difluent 1000-500 hPa thickness as
instability across KY continues to march eastward until its
arrival. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local amounts of 5" are
expected locally. Flash flood guidance is low as recent rains
have partially to completely saturated soils in this area. Due to
this, chose the likely category. Flash flooding occurrences are
expected to be at least scattered in nature across the discussion
area.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_SeMf8I-vmAgJN8g6oWFKST_A16zQX5zvVwB330wT90rQg-tFS1TBAdpA9-cVBaW76I4fj9K9ZERS1AEGyVlSVibgAY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41038630 40928513 38888358 36138330 35748519
38868613 40238655

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 12 08:51:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 120851
FFGMPD
ILZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-121449-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1021
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
450 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...from eastern NE into northwest IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120849Z - 121449Z

Summary...Thunderstorms should increase in coverage and intensity
across portions of IA and northwest IL into mid morning. Hourly
rain amounts to 2.5" with local amounts to 5" are possible, which
would be most problematic in urban areas.

Discussion...A convective complex that was over northwest SD at
00z has made the turn to a more easterly path across northeast NE
and appears to have an embedded MCV as of late. Ahead of the MCV,
showers and thunderstorms have very slowly been evolving during
the past hour or two across IA near and ahead of a frontal wave.
Precipitable water values of 1.75-2" exist near and ahead of the
cluster. Effective bulk shear of 40-60 kts exists here. MU CAPE
of 3000-4500 J/kg exists across eastern NE, IA, and northwest IL.

The mesoscale guidance has been too far north with the complex.
Conceptually, the forward propagation vectors (favoring SE
movement) and instability gradient ahead of the cluster (favoring
ENE movement) are leading to the slightly south of east movement
that has recently been observed. Believe this movement would
continue into this morning, which would lead to a solution
somewhat south of the available mesoscale guidance. Where
mesocyclones, cell training, or cell mergers occur, hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" and local totals to 5" would be possible. These
amounts exceed the three hourly flash flood guidance across the
area, and this degree of rainfall would be most problematic in
urban areas. Flash flood issues are expected to be isolated to
widely scattered.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!84RWDPv2tJCIbDTi0UFa0-d2XUmZlhkY4hHzy2vQhi2Ai8ht0vK1GWsmwHTM5AdAmwqsGESaQIsgM1sznm_of-XqXGc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...FSD...ILX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42759806 42759446 42109049 40908933 40749182
41809770

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 12 13:13:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 121313
FFGMPD
VAZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-121800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1022
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
910 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...Eastern IN...Western OH...Eastern KY...Eastern TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121310Z - 121800Z

Summary...Long lived back building MCS continues to produce
widespread heavy rainfall across eastern portions of the Ohio
Valley this morning. Additional flash flooding is likely given
highly saturated grounds and the expectation of 2-4 inches of
rainfall through the midday hours.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars are continuing to depict a
back-building MCS currently centered over eastern Indiana this
morning that has been nearly stationary for the past several
hours. Although recent GOES-E infrared satellite imagery is
indicating a slight decrease in the magnitude of the overall
convection, it has been a slow change overall and the
thermodynamic parameters remain quite favorable for additional
back-building convection to develop through the remainder of the
morning and into the midday hours. The latest SPC mesoanalysis
indicates PWs close to 2 inches near the western boundary of the
complex, along with most unstable CAPE values in the 2500-3000
J/kg range just downstream.

The outflow boundary that has developed on the western edge of the
complex is serving as an excellent lifting mechanism for new
convection with 20-30 mph 850mb flow intersecting the boundary,
and this is likely to remain the case over the next few hours. The
latest CAM guidance suite is quite varied in the possible QPF
solutions, but the RRFS appears to have the most realistic
depiction with some additional 2-4 inch totals through 18Z. An
aggravating factor will be the severely compromised flash flood
guidance values across a large portion of eastern Indiana into
northern Kentucky, which has been hammered by multiple rounds of
heavy rainfall in just the past 12 hours, in some cases exceeding
5 inches. Multiple instances of flash flooding are likely.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5ARADBORhB2gSZoVf2lR9e9DYqVfJ-1oAoKJgb2Gx7tWTn6vxD_G-8DtWlBxY3rr_ylvL3nZ0WmgojDGracwYxHf2hw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41128607 41128486 40538397 39528397 38718386
37818346 36938298 35928308 35588397 35738530
36468602 37438641 38338673 39538699 40378682

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 05:17:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 050517
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-051100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1206
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
116 AM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...Southern Michigan...Northeast Indiana...Northwest
to Southeast Ohio...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050520Z - 051100Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convective activity with capability of
1.5-1.75"/hr rates and favorable repeating/training environment
for localized streaks of 2-3" totals overnight. Isolated to
widely scattered flash flooding is possible.

DISCUSSION...05z surface analysis shows a weak surface low at the
southern base of Lake Michigan at a weak inflection the stationary
front that is more west to east along the WI/IL state line before
angling south-southeast across NE IND into central OH before
crossing into W PA. Aloft, a 500mb jet speed max is exiting the
LP across Lake Erie into the Mid-Atlantic resulting in a broad
right entrance region across SW LP of MI, where also a pocket of
cooler air aloft (-6 to -8C) resides sliding eastward indicative
of slightly enhanced lapse rates further west. Low level
925-700mb deep layer flow has responded with still mostly
unidirectional flow out of the west, but a small veered low level
profile weakly oblique to the isentropic plane associated with the
frontal zone. In addition, retrograding upper-level low over
Eastern Canada has started to result in increasing 925-850mb
northeasterly flow which is significantly drier. This is helping
to steepen isentropes near and downstream of the weak surface low
to support deep layer convergence in the isentropic ascent for
convective initiation across S MI at this time, coincident with
the 500-300mb divergence maxima passing southeastward.

The overall coverage and organization still remains scattered due
to oblique/weak convergence forcing, but the ample deep layer
moisture pooled in this region is about 2" of TPW. Slow
organization and increasingly confluent steering flow across NW
OH/SE MI may help to organize thunderstorm activity into a more
favorable orientation for repeating/training. Still, MUCAPE is
higher further southwest into NE IL/NW IND around 4000 J/kg, but
remains very capped with 50-75 J/kg of remaining CINH. RAP
analysis suggests weaker capping (less than 25 J/kg) along the
northeast gradient of CAPE but still around 1500-2000 J/kg to
support strong updraft vigor and low level moisture flux
convergence for efficient rainfall production. Bulk shear is a
bit weak overall for better organization (currently about
20-25kts) but any improvement may allow for broader updrafts as
well, but given inflow of 20-30kts (also 925mb northeasterly flow
of 15kts) should allow for flux convergence to support 1.5-1.75";
though this could increase with any improvement in deeper shear
profile toward 2"/hr.

So while repeating is likely to be required to overcome the higher
FFG values of S MI/NE IND (currently 1.8-2.3"/hr), this will
reduce across areas recently saturated by activity though the last
few days across SE MI/Northwest OH, where values drop to 1.5-2"/hr
with some spots even below 1.5" further southeast; with 3hr values
of 2-2.5" across much of the area of concern. So with localized
streaks of 2-3" totals, isolated to widely scattered incident(s)
of flash flooding will become possible though the early morning

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8hxLLuxJafOzbZLbQ7YTA0RNlx1KzzRj1oPPjwWf_0fkvdcDiT5NCmjt2lc6zsa5PAIJi55bTk3eixJJal_rrdhSzvs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...ILN...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42278604 42208477 41828342 40858144 40388109
39718116 39408225 39648332 40388494 41478645

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 07:27:56 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 050727
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-051300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1207
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 AM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050730Z - 051300Z

SUMMARY...Warm-air advection convection will be slow moving with
rates of 1.5"/hr . Very dry, high FFG grounds may be able to
uptake much of the rainfall, but isolated exceedance remains
possible given localized totals of 2-3.5" are possible through
morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows broad warming across SD as
downstream ridging amplifies slowly, but also a broad area of
increasing divergence aloft exists as well, as sub-tropical jet
turns more easterly across KS and S NEB, as well as advancing
large scale trough enters the northwest providing diffluent flow
of the polar jet streak across the western Dakotas. As such, the
LLJ has rapidly increased over the last few hours with 850mb winds
increasing to 40-50kts over the western Dakotas, with
confluent/convergent 25-30kts across eastern South Dakota. This
convergent flow has increased deep layer moisture to over 1.5"
pooled along a stationary front that bisects SD from NW to SE
before turning east across N IA. Surface Tds in the low to
mid-70s and increasing 850mb moisture but steepened lapse rates
over 700mb from mid-level dry air supports high MUCAPE over 4000
J/kg per RAP analysis. Though highly capped, the strength of the
deep layer moisture confluence/convergence is supporting
isentropic ascent across the boundary resulting in convective
development across south-central SD with scattered TCu and
isolated CBs into north-central SD.

GOES-E 10.3um shows cluster cooling below -60C, and RADAR shows
numerous smaller updrafts starting to congeal into larger
clusters. Rain-rates are starting to respond and increase locally
to 1.5"/hr. This may occasionally uptick toward 1.75", but the
greater concern is residency time. Deep layer steering in the
divergent flow aloft and building ridging (noted in 850-500mb
reduced flow east into central MN), suggests very slow north to
north-northeast motions. However, given the strength of the
low-level inflow and 1000-500 thickness packing; propagation
vectors are toward the south-southeast at 5-10kts, resulting in
slow eastward drift at 5-10kts. Upwind redevelopment in proximity
to the isentropic boundary may help with some
back-building/regeneration to further increase time at any given
location. As such, widely scattered spots of 3-3.5"/hr are
possible within an axis of 2-3" east and north of the Missouri
River & frontal zone.

This increased residency will be required given naturally high FFG
values of 2-2.5"/hr and 2-3"/3hrs across much of the area of
concern. Combined with long-period dry grounds as 0-40cm ratios
are dismally low less than 10%. Rates can be high given hard
ground conditons but may not be excessive enough that slow
infiltation is more likely. Still, the overall totals locally of
3-3.5" may still result in a low-end isolated to widely scattered
incident or two of flash flooding through the early morning and is
therefore considered possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!47hubHXHVii3AQyBic2oDTCdKem_BmyskntQsd9YZBbV9uIWw9FPYMooUzakrbBtejy7LQlCMPGye5vYBpuHme3VAiM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...FSD...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45649842 45359757 44839674 44359639 43669620
43149641 42929679 42939768 43219867 43999931
44889962 45559925

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 17:44:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 051744
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-052330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1208
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
143 PM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...Far Southwest TX...Central and Southern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051743Z - 052330Z

SUMMARY...Developing scattered coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expected going through the afternoon hours.
Isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible, and mainly for
the more sensitive burn scar and canyon areas along with dry
washes.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W visible satellite imagery shows
some convective initiation taking place across the Sacramento
Mountains. The daytime heating cycle will continue to foster
additional boundary layer destabilization, and this coupled with
differential heating boundaries and terrain-driven circulations
should promote a gradual uptick in convective coverage with
scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms.

Much of the current instability is over southern NM and far
southwest TX, and inclusive of areas near the Sacramento Mountains
and the Davis Mountains. SBCAPE avalues of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg are
noted across these areas. However, the monsoonal moisture
footprint across the region is relatively modest with PWs as high
as 1.25+ inches.

The latest hires model CAMs suggest a scattered convective
footprint with some potential for isolated 2 to 3 inch rainfall
totals. Overall, the greatest rainfall totals should tend to be
near the Sacramento Mountains, however, some adjacent areas of
southern NM and far southwest TX will also have support for this
and especially with some storms being capable of being slow-moving
while producing some rainfall rates of 1.5 inches/hour.

An isolated threat for flash flooding will exist as a result going
through the afternoon hours. The more sensitive burn scar and
canyon areas along with dry washes will be most susceptible to
impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8XzfE2jacviXKMYrJA-RU7p93GGDJ-txNWNSKc2PZqPiU1F44zax57kSubCVrLhma5R60V0V-I6eZclGw-qlF9FA69U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34430671 34120501 31600401 30520329 29780359
29650449 30630572 31420665 31730814 32540880
33370844

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 17:47:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 051747
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-052345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1209
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
146 PM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of Southwest LA & Southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051745Z - 052345Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are
becoming numerous across the region. Hourly rain amounts to 3"
with local totals to 5", particularly in urban areas and soils
still partially saturated by Edouard.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in number
across Southwest LA & Southeast TX. This is occurring near a zone
of 850 hPa confluence. Precipitable water values are 2.25-2.5".
Effective bulk shear is <25 kts, leading to pulse convection. ML
CAPE is ~2000 J/kg.

GFS-based Galvez-Davison Index values imply that convection could
continue to increase in coverage through 21z before starting to
starting to fade thereafter. This is supported by 12z HREF
guidance. Due to the parameters above, hourly rain amounts to 3"
with local totals to 5" are possible where cells merge or manage
to train. This would be most problematic in urban areas and
locations with soils remaining at least partially saturated from
Edouard's deluge a few days ago.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8vDuqr29apw118N3IGUTU3EapgbV3Y_yFlO52aBPjckqaX1WDr8OYsrEzCE6TTxI8RkAJleD-PqKNbN-4puYrSI_6Mo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32469462 31379275 30899044 29749097 29409190
29539385 28669566 28349692 29719685 31349648
32309565

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 18:15:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 051747
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-052345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1209
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
146 PM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of Southwest LA & Southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051745Z - 052345Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are
becoming numerous across the region. Hourly rain amounts to 3"
with local totals to 5", particularly in urban areas and soils
still partially saturated by Edouard.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in number
across Southwest LA & Southeast TX. This is occurring near a zone
of 850 hPa confluence. Precipitable water values are 2.25-2.5".
Effective bulk shear is <25 kts, leading to pulse convection. ML
CAPE is ~2000 J/kg.

GFS-based Galvez-Davison Index values imply that convection could
continue to increase in coverage through 21z before starting to
starting to fade thereafter. This is supported by 12z HREF
guidance. Due to the parameters above, hourly rain amounts to 3"
with local totals to 5" are possible where cells merge or manage
to train. This would be most problematic in urban areas and
locations with soils remaining at least partially saturated from
Edouard's deluge a few days ago.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5zxcEsyxRDCnpl8x4X6i1BxF5kiv7qCngCjFUy4CubUPjGF3S80pA0JmQ5Tr4ScwKG7v8Q9fNQ9Z0_DCPOYEeWPYFys$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32469462 31379275 30899044 29749097 29409190
29539385 28669566 28349692 29719685 31349648
32309565

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 21:31:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 052130
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-060326-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1212
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
529 PM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of the NE Panhandle/northeast CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052126Z - 060326Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are aligning/congealing along
a convergence zone in the NE Panhandle. Hourly rain amounts to 2"
with local totals to 4" are possible, which may lead to flash
flooding.

Discussion...There has been some consolidation of a line of
convection along a convergence zone in the NE Panhandle, which
both the 18z HREF/12z REFS indicated, to some degree, farther
south of its current location. CIN has eroded in its vicinity.
Precipitable water values are 1-1.25", fairly high for the High
Plains. ML CAPE is ~1500 J/kg in the vicinity of the convective
line, which lies along a north- south instability gradient. This
convection is also near the 15C isotherm at 700 hPa, which tends
to act as the edge of effective mid-level capping in the High
Plains. Effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts is organizing
convection.

The guidance indicates some south to south-southeast shifting of
this convective line with time and possible consolidation into a
small convective complex. This movement is at a significant angle
to the 850-400 hPa mean wind, 1000-500 hPa thickness pattern, and
forward propagation vectors. This could be due to the convection,
with time, creating a hole in the instability field which forces
activity into the southerly low-level inflow and the idea that CIN
never fully erodes to its east as 700 hPa temperatures are high
enough to cap lower elevations of the Plains. In any event, the
parameters above suggest hourly rain amounts to 2" with local
totals to 4" are possible. As this activity is straddling the
edge of the Sand Hills, flash flooding prospects are conditional.
Should this heavy rainfall occur outside of the Sand Hills or in
urban areas, flash flooding would be possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5ZP3N-oj_mcV4D7tvZHTvJIxn-nNf-TvYyMB8SXLtViVPirUDlLXJ9kpP2US9XZSIO9q7LaRdMTx5Qyl_oUFhtbywgU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...LBF...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 43190258 42980179 41820159 40590191 40470333
41760379

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 02:58:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 060257
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-060800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1213
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1057 PM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...Southwest Nebraska &
Southern Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060300Z - 060800Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding remains possible for areas out
of Sand Hills or South Platte River Valley for a few more hours
before complex become forward propagating limiting duration at any
specific location.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows favorable mid to upper level
environment remains across the central High Plains as a subtle
shortwave lifts northeast across E WY along the northwest edge of
the larger scale ridge that is anchored along or just east of
100W. ML 6.9um also notes some higher cirrus with more of a
southwest to east-northeast orientation out of central CO toward W
KS. The combination of features continues to support strong
divergence pattern over Northeast CO into SW NEB, outflow
continues to strengthen due fed as a response to earlier
convective activity with AMV suggesting 60-70ks across the Sand
Hills into southern SD. As such, low level flow continues to
strengthen out of the south and southeast with 850mb flow around
25-30kts from the SE becoming strongly convergent in response to
the 850mb low forming across NE CO. Combine this with 700mb due
south jet providing further sub-tropical moisture connection per
CIRA LPW in the complex with slight confluence from southwesterly
700mb flow off the Front Range to further support short-term
back-building of convection toward the cyclone over the last few
hours. Outflow boundaries have gusted westward and 3.9um SWIR
loop and observations denoted the increase in overall moisture
with Tds in the 50s now back as far west as 82V and GXY, and some
60s as far west as AKO, IML and SYF. Total PWat estimates are
starting to reach 1.6-1.7" and with little sub-cloud evaporation,
rates are increasing to 1.5"/hr locally.

The back-building should start to reduce with time as forward
propagation should be drawing the convective cores eastward toward
06-07z. However, there remains a small window where back-building
southerly inflow at 850-700mb will counter strengthening
southeasterly inflow and cell residency may result from some
short-term periods of repeating or even cell mergers being within
the northeast (downshear) quadrant of the developing cyclone. As
such spots of 2-3" totals remain possible resulting in potential
for localized flash flooding. Hydrologically, the FFG values are
highly variable due to larger sand hills across SW NEB and
naturally absorptive soils in the broader South Platte River
Channel proper. However, there are still some rugged, rockier
locations across NE CO that will likely shed some of the higher
rate totals. As the complex forward propagates into stronger
southeasterly flow, overall totals should diminish across NW
KS...south-central NEB.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8ACidGhqoCqoN8u-nxLzKT63cEIhkgW3oSnaMY3w3ZYF_0LeUsFjBNx1IqQ9-e1BbJTgQYNwqG60h19WaHFgaRls_z0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GLD...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 41750245 41460157 40940119 40490125 39950195
39760277 39930364 40410421 41050412 41560353

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 15:57:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 061557
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-062155-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1214
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1155 AM EDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Areas affected...Central/Eastern SD...Far Northeast NE...Northwest IA...Southwest MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061555Z - 062155Z

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in the concentration of heavy showers
and thunderstorms can be expected going through the afternoon
hours. A growing threat for scattered areas of flash flooding will
exist which may include some urban impacts.

DISCUSSION...The mid to late-morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery
shows broken areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting
portions of central/southern SD and northeast NE, with separate
activity also noted more recently over parts of southwest MN and
adjacent areas of northern IA.

Much of the activity is associated with an ejecting shortwave
trough out across the central Plains which is gradually moving off
to the east while also interacting with a quasi-stationary front.
Warm air advection ahead of the shortwave coupled with a corridor
of strong elevated instability and the arrival of DPVA should set
the stage for a more expansive convective footprint by early to
mid-afternoon.

MUCAPE values near and just northeast of the stationary front are
on the order of 3000 to 4000 J/kg, and PWs are quite high with
values near 1.75 inches. This combination of moisture and
instability will support showers and thunderstorms with
increasingly heavy rainfall rates as stronger forcing/lift arrives
with the shortwave dynamics/divergent flow aloft.

The 12Z hires CAMs as a consensus supports rainfall rates capable
of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour with the expanding corridors of
stronger storms. However, the growing concern over the next
several hours will be slow cell-motions and a favorable
environment for backbuilding and locally training convection as
suggested by the Corfidi upwind propagation vectors.

Some rainfall totals by mid-afternoon may reach as high as 3 to 5+
inches given the high rainfall rates and slow cell-motions, and
this is supported by the consensus of the 12Z hires CAMs. These
high rainfall totals will generally favor 1 and 3-hour FFG
exceedance (30 to 50+ percent probabilities).

Therefore, the threat for at least scattered areas of flash
flooding is expected to increase with time, with an emphasis on
eastern SD into southwest MN and northwest IA. This will include
concerns for urban impacts, and especially for areas near Sioux
Falls.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_JN6FKnpbDfdBmMquVwukJLfpE-h3b60MgqyNaIeqJ1V8-zC1t0V69OU63ZTPFtyPTTElclEUmBL-ARZzILMdYOlHO8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...DMX...FGF...FSD...LBF...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46079883 46029690 45589570 45129506 44289445
43219412 41579445 41119605 42279765 43539904
44370051 45540070

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 19:07:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 061907
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-070104-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1215
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 PM EDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Areas affected...South Carolina into Eastern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061904Z - 070104Z

SUMMARY...Increasing shower and thunderstorm development over the late-afternoon and early evening across South Carolina into
Georgia will lead to scattered instances of flash flooding as
rainfall rates reach between 2-3 inches per hour with the
strongest cells.

DISCUSSION...Current radar and satellite depictions note an
upstream shortwave migrating southeastward out of the Ohio Valley
with increased forcing within the western NC mountains down into
the Piedmont of the Carolinas as scattered thunderstorm activity
ensues over the area. At the surface, a cold front is analyzed
from western NC down through the SC Midlands to the SC coastal
plain with slow forward propagation to the south as high pressure
over the Great Lakes noses the front down east of the
Appalachians. Moisture and instability fields remain prime for
heavy rainfall prospects as PWAT anomalies between +1 to +2
deviations are situated along and south of the frontal boundary in
the Carolinas into northern FL. SBCAPE between 1500-3000 J/kg are
located across SC with some SBCAPE inferences of up to 4000 J/kg
are located along the southeastern GA coast leading to the
potential for significant convective cores capable of initiating
strong to locally severe thunderstorms over the back half of the
afternoon through the early evening time frame.

Increased low-level convergence along the front, as well as along
the immediate SC/GA coast thanks to a weak surface low positioned
100 miles off the coast of Charleston, SC will act as focal points
for convection as mean flow out of the northwest will lead to cell
motions generally down through SC with an anchoring near the
coastal plain as they approach a defined surface trough analyzed
along the SC/GA coastal plain. Latest RRFS/HRRR outputs indicate
cell initiation across SC forming between 19-20z with a blossoming
in the overall coverage shortly thereafter as temperatures in the
low-90s allow for a breach of convective temps situated around
90-92F as noted via the 12z RAOB from KCHS and 18z RAOB from KJAX.
Main convective mode will likely be multi-cellular as a lack of
sufficient shear will limit mesocyclone maturation, however, given
the overall buoyancy of the thermodynamic environment and
increasing favorable kinematics, strong to locally severe
thunderstorms will develop and produce high convective rainfall
rates between 2-3"/hr for much of the aforementioned area.

12z HREF neighborhood probs for >3" over 6hrs are upwards of
60-90% for the time frame between 21-03z this evening over the SC
Midlands down through all of southeast GA into northeast FL with
HREFbm totals for the threat encroaching on 3-5" for the same
area. This signal is more than sufficient for scattered flash
flooding within those urbanized settings over the region with an
emphasis on places like Columbia, Charleston, and Beaufort in SC,
as well as Augusta to Savannah/Brunswick in GA given their more
favorable run off capabilities due to urbanization. Heavy
convection will be littered across the region with a general 1-2"
forecast with locally heavier totals upwards of 5" in the hardest
hit locations.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9qmILs4jiVnzLGhUJruSyO1_VXiqXVV5pJjlIwy-vxQ6UVQok-wL-C-L4d93fKMk396mih25OdcI1Uqr0fKYi5PX-hQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35168190 35138102 34878036 34118014 33497989
33007972 32677973 32388020 31668096 30138146
30638315 31728360 32648306 33698233 34778234

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 21:56:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 062155
FFGMPD
MOZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-070353-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1216
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
554 PM EDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Corn Belt into the Missouri River
Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 062153Z - 070353Z

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous slow-moving thunderstorms, some
strong to severe, will lead to a continued flash flood threat for
portions of the Corn Belt down through the adjacent Missouri River
Valley. Rainfall rates between 2 to 3 inches per hour are possible
in the strongest thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...Widespread heavy thunderstorm activity continues
across much of western Iowa up into neighboring South Dakota and
Minnesota this afternoon. Upper level setup remains favorable for
broad scale ascent within a diffluent region positioned over the
North-Central Plains to Upper Midwest thanks to the slow
progression of a strong upper trough navigating over the
Northwestern U.S. At the surface, intense low-level convergence is
occurring within a narrow corridor situated near and just east of
the Missouri River as a quasi-stationary front aligns north to
south between SD down into KS. A broad surface high over the Great
Lakes allows for a continued southeasterly flow on the western
fringes of the ridge, providing a more prevalent low-level
convergence signature in tandem with the stationary front in
place. Deep moisture advection and elevated theta_E's continue to
align in parallel to the frontal placement with MUCAPE firmly
between 3000-5000 J/kg according to the latest RAP mesoanalysis
over northwest MO through much of western IA. The setup remains
favorable for scattered to widespread heavy convective development
within that corridor of elevated theta_E's and PWATs bisecting the
region with much of the CAMs maintaining the posture into the
evening.

Convective modes will remain more pulse to multi-cellular
varieties, but the formidable instability axis and deep moist
profile lend to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
torrential rainfall rates and gusty winds that will exacerbate
flash flooding concerns where significant rainfall has already
occurred, and points further south as mid-level ascent becomes
more favored for areas of west-central IA down into northwestern
MO. Latest HRRR/RRFS combo is consistent in the signature of heavy
thunderstorm development within the narrow tongue of elevated
theta_E's centered just east of the Missouri River. Rainfall rates
between 2-3"/hr are likely in the strongest cell cores and with
mean flow generally out of the north to north-northwest, cells
will train or slowly wander over the same areas leading to
localized totals exceeding 3 inches with some CAMs members showing
upwards of 6 inches plausible in the setup. Despite some modest
FFG's over the region, rainfall rates and significant rainfall
totals will supersede majority of the antecedent dryness over the
area leading to a greater threat for flash flooding. Given the
current state of flash flood warnings already issued with the
environmental favorability continuing through the evening, flash
flooding is likely to continue to the aforementioned area.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_rgRiAhXDAIHEdS6NhNEBj4fLxR8JrAk7yfk0RMSasMbanj7LkDeN4yihU3gn78mpdWivACoOKTeeT_BQEx2mcF00MM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...MPX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43649577 43619511 43509459 43149407 42379382
41449364 40749345 39779338 38589337 38139408
38269520 39689591 40939638 41689650 42169655
42679662 43049667 43529640 43619606

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 05:28:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 070527
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-071000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1217
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
127 AM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...Eastern WY...Southwest SD...Northern NEB
Panhandle....

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070530Z - 071000Z

SUMMARY...Very strong moisture flux convergence and short-term
repeating downdrafts capable of 1.5-1.75"/hr rates moving into
naturally lower FFG values and may result in localized flash
flooding incident or two.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite shows a very strong dynamic upper-low
crossing E WA into E ID with a broad dry-slot across the Great
Basin. Strong dual jet structure over ID and core of of 100-120kt
jet over W WY is favorably arched to provide strong diffluence
along the eastern underside of the jet across the High Plains of
CO into E WY. Strong low-level response has been seen in VWP and
RAP analysis supporting 850-700 FGEN axis just east of the
Colorado Front Range northward along the E WY toward SE MT given
25-30kts of veered surface to 700mb flow (easterly to southerly).
As such, moisture is pooling along the FGEN fields with total PWat
values increasing to over 1.25" to 1.5" quickly over the next few
hours. The strong forcing acting on a pool of conditionally
unstable air across E WY/SW SD/NW NEB (2000-2500 J/kg) has
resulted in broader ascent that given the strong effective bulk
shear of 40-50kts has resulted in broader supercell/rotating
updrafts with cells given broade southeasterly inflow have started
with increased flanking line development. Further moisture flux
convergence due to supercell structures are broadening the inflow
field to inject more moisture to support increasing 1.5-1.75"/hr.

While deep layer steering from the southwest would normally result
in very quick motions, the rotation is also reducing forward speed
with some eastward deflection, allowing for the flanking line
development to orient favorably for short-term repeating/increased
residency in the near storm environment. As the cells move out of
the North Platte Valley into NW NEB/SW SD, the FFG values reduce
quickly with 1hr FFG values less than 1.5" and 3hr of 2-2.5".
Given potential for localized 2-3" totals due to short-term
training both FFG time periods become at risk of exceedance.
Though northern cell in Weston county is moving toward higher FFG
values in the Black Hills, the rugged granite topography could
still result in localized concerns given high runoff potential
(though this is, of course a lower potential than Niobrara to
Oglala-Lakota counties).

Forward propagation and northward shift of ideal divergence
support aloft toward the north should limit the longevity of the
developing cluster/complex over W SD toward 09z. However, there
is sufficient suggestion an isolated to widely scattered incident
or two of flash flooding remain possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6LkzvreNaOTS-prem_sXCx0Zkk-xzUtFcH6SegyMvUb7Z8Zhz6v3Gvqafd65GCjBJ3CsZ5PeftbxMK62xzZZ04gid-U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 45200321 45040221 44540172 43420146 42670245
42220331 41960435 42320488 43060483 44040477
44500449 44910396

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 07:36:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 070735
FFGMPD
MTZ000-071300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1218
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 AM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...East Central Montana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070735Z - 071300Z

SUMMARY...Training/repeating cells along border with upstream
redevelopment due to approaching deep layer cyclone to support
strong cells capable of 1.5-2.5" in a few hours. Localized flash
flooding will be possible where training/repeating occurs.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite denotes core of closed upper-level
low is shifting out of WA/OR into ID with modest negative tilt
orientation across the Northern Intermountain region of SW MT/W WY
and is slightly out of phase with southwesterly flow shortwave
though in a favorable manner for large scale ascent/cyclogenesis
across the Northern High Plains. This shortwave exists in the
split of the inner polar jet over SE ID and stronger 90kt jet
streaming across WY, resulting in strong downstream dPVA over SE
MT and increased divergence/diffluence noted by lower layer
baroclinic shield over central MT (along/west of 110W). As such,
surface to 850mb cyclogenesis is well on it way across SE MT/NE WY
and a sharp inverted trough exists northward through NE MT; west
of which stronger northerly/north-northeasterly flow is
strengthening providing solid moisture flux with 1.25" TPW
increasingly toward 1.4" Rosebud/Yellowstone county along the
northwest side of the surface low.

Above average theta-E air still retains heating from this
afternoon and with some steepening lapse rates results in an axis
of 1500-2000 J/kg of capped MLCAPE. Weaker capping near the
Canadian border with initial moisture flux convergence in the
850-700mb layer has maintained scattered supercells that have
advanced eastward out of Blaine into Phillips county.
Intersection with the divergence aloft and increasingly low level
moisture flux has seen an broadening of updrafts and upscale
growth of the complex. Steering flow has also reduced the
eastward propagation enough for increasing residency of modest
1.25-1.5"/hr rates. Though isolated personal weather stations
suggest stronger instantaneous/sub-hourly totals, near 1"/30
minutes. Slowing steering will also allow for some repeating in
the near term, so localized 1.5-2" with an isolated 2.5" becoming
possible. Naturally low FFG values <1.5"/hr and <2"/3hrs have
good possibility of locally being exceeded with potential for
localized incident(s) of flash flooding possible in the next few
hours.

As the negative tilt and shortwave lift northward, stronger
convection is expected to develop (as noted with a few cells
breaking out in Sweet Grass/Stillwater counties). While faster
moving, deeper layer moisture convergence along the north-south
oriented boundary between the convective line along 850-700mb
effective frontal zone may promote some repeating from south to
north and while likely less effective than storms north, rates of
1-1.25" are possible and streaks of 1-2" may also be possible. As
such, have expanded the area of concern within the
instability/moisture axis west of the surface low and along the
axis of lower FFG values as points of isolated flooding concerns
as well through 12z.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9lBN_xk125UwMxSHW9JLng5JMmbiRN5cCbnDuJxQUA1IE5B4C02ro0zoCeY20jRpyX6erZX1M_jUZp7cyb5x7uGP5QY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 49090858 49080748 49070525 48750537 47880609
46870676 45850801 45800955 46790892 47740867
48280873 49010881

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 08:26:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 070825
FFGMPD
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-071300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1219
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
424 AM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...Northwest Iowa...Extreme Southeast South
Dakota...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070825Z - 071300Z

SUMMARY...Near stationary over-running cells capable of 1-1.5"/hr
rates and highly focused 2-4" totals across areas of reduced FFG.
Localized flash flooding remains possible through early morning.

DISCUSSION...A narrow window of weak but sufficient isentropic
ascent has broken out elevated convection across the narrow stripe
of recently affected areas where FFG values remain well below
normal and less than <1.5"/hr and <2"/3hrs. GOES-E 10.3um and
3.9um SWIR IR loops combined with VWP out of FSD/OAX denote rapid
veering with westerly 700mb winds at 20kts from the west are
fairly orthogonal to the SSE to NNW surface to 850mb frontal zone
across eastern NEB resulting in convergence around or just below
the 700mb level with increase in congestus eventually blossoming
to a few CBs in NW IA with further weaker more scattered
convection further south into SW IA. The orientation of the
boundary also resides on the NE side of a 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE
(per RAP soundings) gradient that also aligns with the compromised
soil conditions. RAP CINH fields are still showing more CINH
further south and higher CAPE upstream into SE SD. A few TCu
exist there, but FFG values also rapidly increase across Yankton
to Miner counties; so have limited the areal extent for potential
additional flash flooding to those areas where FFG values remain
low.

Westerly winds are expected to remain but weaken slightly over the
next few hours, so most of the expected weakening past 12z will be
due to exhausting the remaining uncapped mid-level unstable air
upstream. With limited cell motion and inflow generally equal and
opposite to the mean steering from 700-400mb, cells are likely to
remain somewhat stationary with slight back-building possible. As
such, highly focused areas of 2-4" over the next 3-4 hours are
possible and given the low FFG, localized flash flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5AuluJELOiNKgJHhkLuDmYGQQYYT2KREQRaswtVzjlp2cp5rPo6q5o9GSihxSOpzYKRdV1BY51yaAY9K5FBMexEpEV8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43509698 43339595 42979523 42399451 41579402
40939447 41079541 42429639 43179712

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 15:20:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 071519
FFGMPD
MTZ000-072115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1220
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1118 AM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...northwestern MT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071518Z - 072115Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible across
portions of northwestern MT over the next 6 hours as an additional
1-2 inches of rain fall atop areas that have received heavy rain
over the past few days. Hourly rainfall totals are expected to
peak over 0.5 inches through 21Z.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery from 15Z showed a strong mid to
upper level low/trough advancing from north-central ID into
western MT. Out ahead of this feature was a west-east oriented
axis of heavy rain, noted on area radar imagery, with embedded
thunder, located from ~20 miles south of Cut Bank to ~40 miles
south of Havre. Gauge reports from within this axis of heavy rain
have shown 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rain in and around Great Falls but
with much of that falling in about 15-30 minutes. The 12Z sounding
from TFX showed a precipitable water value of 1.01 inches, which
was near the climatological max for early September, but limited
MUCAPE of 235 J/kg. The strong dynamics corresponding to the upper
trough were making up for the lacking instability with left-exit
region upper level jet divergence and diffluence advancing through
west-central MT.

As the mid to upper-level low advances northeastward into
north-central MT through 21Z, weak elevated instability, locally
exceeding 500 J/kg, is forecast by the RAP to affect locations
from the northern Rockies into the upper Missouri Valley and the
U.S./Canadian border. A deformation axis is likely to become
better defined later this morning into the afternoon over
northwestern MT, containing stratiform moderate rain with embedded
cores of heavy rain and possible thunder.

Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches associated with the ongoing
northward moving axis of heavy rain over west-central MT will
continue to translate north over the next 2-3 hours while steady
moderate to heavy rain sets up to the west. Through the early
afternoon, additional pockets of heavy rain are expected into
parts of northwestern to north-central MT with hourly rainfall up
to ~0.5 inches and 6 hour totals in the 1 to 2 inch range.

Due to 1-3 inches of rainfall that has fallen over the past 2-3
days across portions of western MT, additional localized heavy
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches may result in localized areas of rapid rises/inundation within areas of sensitive terrain.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9CB-_bNsgCH8GlcCqwCjEqMlm1oV3KE7knuXs1v5LTbEREl6Hp6W8aBQJRtW04uX3YK5OhqIEgdPSB6x-axAItGHkJs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MSO...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49131247 49111025 49081007 48411002 48081041
47671219 47101316 47011386 47461491 48161548
48811547 49081533 49091529

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 19:32:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 071932
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-080130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1221
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 PM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...Southwest U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071930Z - 080130Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flood concerns across the terrain and
adjacent valley areas of eastern Arizona and the northern and
western area of New Mexico. Flashier dry river beds and remnant
burn scars are the main areas of concern. Rainfall rates upwards
of 1 inch per hour.

DISCUSSION...Afternoon destabilization across portions of the
Southwestern U.S. will allow for the development of scattered
showers and thunderstorms over portions of AZ and NM. PWATs remain
elevated between 1.1-1.6" across the aforementioned areas with
instability fields becoming increasingly favorable as we move
through peak diurnal heating. Low shear, high SBCAPE on the order
of 1000-2500 J/kg across the region will provide a sufficient
environment for pulse convection and a few convective clusters
with the primary target over the eastern Mogollon Rim and the
terrain in-of western NM. Rainfall rates between 0.5-1"/hr in
stronger cells are forecast, but some intra-hour rates could
breach closer to 1.5"/hr which could provide more appreciable run
off capabilities as a result.

Primary concerns will be those flashier dry river beds and any
remnant burn scars over the area along with the typical urbanized
threats in towns across the area. HREF probs for >1" are modest
with the maxima (40-60%) located over west-central NM to the AZ
border where convection is currently developing. This correlates
with the progged higher SBCAPE location meaning some stronger cell
cores are possible during their maturation process.

Flash flood concerns will be isolated overall, but the threat
remains coincident with the MRGL risk ERO in place and solid
continuity of the threat in the recent CAMs.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4b3Pcn4Z7oyFJB3iUFwxYo_JhsS6JGmUGB89LKjjzv1fQJjCzgtiNpWZxYsAk-5uL-9rytOIJLLxTMZZ8BK48UBR0I8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36990520 36450450 35230648 34250701 33460741
32390828 31920856 31530919 31381058 31411115
31611226 31971295 33241165 34151127 35161081
35841016 36530889 36970761

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 01:31:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 080130
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-080728-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1222
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
929 PM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 080128Z - 080728Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall likely across southeastern SD in the path
of a potent supercell likely to traverse the region. Rainfall
rates between 2 to 3 inches per hour are likely in the storms path
leading to scattered bouts of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Rapidly intensifying supercell ahead of a slowly
progressing warm front over the Plains will become a focal point
for heavy rainfall prospects over the southeastern area of SD into
the quad state region encompassing MN/IA/NE. Current mesoanalysis
points to a suitable thermodynamic environment and effective bulk
shear between 40-50kts suitable for sustaining a prominent
mesocyclone over the region for likely several hours until the
warm front progresses through the area. Recent trends have noted a
rapid intensification of the supercell in progress with rainfall
rates between 2-3"/hr as of the current obs.

Expectation is for heavy rain to focus within the path of the
supercell with a few more cells potentially developing over the
area due to increased forcing occurring from a shortwave ejection
out of the Front Range of WY. At the surface, the warm front will
slowly migrate eastward with the storms anchoring to the front in
question which will provide the necessary element to sustain an
abundant surface based forcing mechanism to keep cells
well-defined and lasting for several hours before dissipating.

Scattered flash flood concerns will last through the evening with
some guidance indicating lingering concerns into the early morning
hours. Rainfall totals between 2-4" with locally as high as 6" are
possible in the impacted area.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_t01qirNZ6reF2CK1S09fZ2ErkTTmJUfGvWn4yhR-6TfxQ8Xk3vzV9jXlIvBLSvP7M8u_TFKKC_tS54zHz5sIXaoDec$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44099606 43619560 43079574 42809641 42679718
42549825 42699889 42999900 43539840 43779780
43939693

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 06:27:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 080627
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-081200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1223
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
226 AM EDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Areas affected...Southern Minnesota...Northern Iowa...Southeast
South Dakota...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080630Z - 081200Z

SUMMARY...Low-end flash flooding potential continues with
additional upstream development and repeating environment with
broad area of 1-2" totals with enhanced stripes of 2-3" embedded.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows fairly straight southwesterly
upper-level 100-110kts jet core from N CO/S WY across the ND/MN
line though the jet is also quite diffluent on the southern side
of the jet with best divergence maxima near the SE/IA/MN line
which is just downshear of an embedded shortwave approaching from
central NEB. As such, the low level flow has responded with 850mb
speed max of 50kts starting to intersect with a stronger cluster
of cells. The interaction has broadened into a west to east warm
advection wing with additional deep layer convergence expanding
convective development downstream across the MN/IA boarder (noted
by overshooting tops in the broadening cirrus canopy with -75C
temps). Additionally, low level moisture has pooled due to this
convergence with overall values nearing 2".

A broader axis of conditionally unstable air is oriented more
north to south with core of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE across E NEB into NE
SD, though expanding eastward across S MN/N IA with sufficient
values 1250-1500 J/kg noted in RAP analysis to help maintain
thunderstorm activity over the next few hours. Additional
upstream development across the Sand Hills of north-central NEB
near the shortwave will also lift into the western edge of the
ongoing convective area to repeat or potentially merge with
ongoing activity across SE SD. Scattered 1.75-2"/hr rates
embedded within the broader line of 1-1.5"/hr rates and generally
veered 700-400mb steering flow to support a broader area of
additional 1-2" totals with embedded streaks of 2-3" where
repeating/training or strongest cores could reside a bit longer.

Hydrologically, heavy rainfall over the last few days (including
heavy rainfall tonight over SE SD) have further reduced FFG values
across the area with an axis extending from Gregory/Charles Mix
county to NW IA with hourly FFG below 1.5" and 3hr below 2",
though this extends further across S MN/N IA with <2"/hr or
<2.5/3hrs as far east as Dodge/Mower, MN and Floyd county, IA.
As such, scattered incidents of localized flash flooding will
remain possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5THet9MGgR6pStNJWnP2g9OI2OMW2IpZoz62qTr0ueBsi9jjKyyqPxMFKtsKMatdKPDufiZ9vkq9kmKRxYYk5KyzGOE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...LBF...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44259461 44169323 43579245 43139259 42809334
42599425 42499591 42509741 42699861 42959915
43419896 44019739 44169627

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 20:50:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 082049
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-090245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1224
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
449 PM EDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Areas affected...southeastern AZ into NM and southeastern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082047Z - 090245Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding will be possible across portions
of southeastern AZ into NM and southeastern CO over the next 6
hours. Peak hourly rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are expected but
with 15 minute rainfall up to 1 inch within the stronger/slowest
moving cells.

DISCUSSION...2030Z visible satellite imagery and area radar
imagery showed scattered monsoonal convection underway across the
higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim into the elevated terrain of
far southeastern AZ into NM. Total PWs across AZ/NM were fairly
similar as of 20Z, compared to this same time yesterday, with
standardized anomalies of +1 to +2. SPC mesoanalysis from 20Z and
18Z soundings from EPZ and ABQ showed instability was primarily
focused from far southeastern AZ into southern and eastern NM with
500 to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE. The synoptic scale mid to upper-level
ridge was centered over KS/MO with the southwestern extension
across south-central AZ/NM, a bit north compared to yesterday at
this time, resulting in a broader coverage of weak deeper layer
mean flow of ~10 kt or less across NM/AZ.

Some minor westward expansion of the 500+ J/kg MLCAPE line is
expected over the next few hours with continued daytime heating
beneath mostly clear skies. Thunderstorm development will continue
to expand along areas of higher terrain before moving into some of
the lower elevations, driven by the mean steering flow and outflow
propagation from storm clusters that develop.

While an evolution similar to Monday is expected due to the fairly
similar parameters in place, locally greater coverage of 1+ inch
rainfall will be possible over the Sacramento Mountains into the
southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains due to weak steering currents
oriented parallel to the terrain and weakly backed low level flow
over eastern to southeastern NM. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches is
expected within the stronger cores along with potential for 15
minute rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches. Any flash flooding that
occurs is expected to be isolated in coverage with impacts to low
water crossings, arroyos and locations of poor drainage. Spotty
total rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are likely with isolated 2+
inch totals possible through 03Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7zS6Zm3gDfXshvtrpaz2BQ44zrWIOjy9mMZsQS4uyf58LHJV53ULlYylbaiJxoKiHASanANWJHMG5fpiUgyZRW0EVSw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37620374 37620296 37590229 37160210 36690301
35610408 34730484 32980542 31680647 31180795
31170899 31140991 31191047 31361105 31931111
32541082 33151054 33681029 34120989 34290919
34600848 35190771 35830706 36460624 37070564
37430503 37570444

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 22:59:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 082258
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-090455-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1225
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
657 PM EDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Areas affected...eastern NE into IA and southwestern
WI/northwestern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 082256Z - 090455Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding is expected to become likely across
portions of central IA this evening into early tonight, with
hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches and 6-hr totals of 2 to 4 inches
(isolated higher rates/totals possible). Surrounding locations of
eastern NE into southwestern WI and northwestern IL may also
experience flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...2230Z visible satellite and radar imagery showed
scattered thunderstorms extending along a surface
trough/differential heating boundary that extended from central IA
into southeastern NE, located southeast of a larger scale
quasi-stationary front. Outflow was observed to be slowly
propagating southward/southeastward across southeastern NE into
southwestern IA. Meanwhile, elevated thunderstorms were located
north of this region from eastern NE into north-central IA. SPC
mesoanalysis data from 22Z showed MLCAPE of 1000 to 2000 J/kg
along and just south of the trough/differential heating boundary
along with a bubble of 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE in south-central IA.

Short term forecasts from the RAP suggest that the low level jet
will begin to increase across eastern KS into northwestern
MO/southern IA around 00Z, with S to SSW 850 mb wind speeds
expected to reach 30-40 kt by 04Z. The increasing overrunning
component of the low level flow will support the continued
development of nocturnal thunderstorms from eastern NE into
central IA and downstream locations of WI/IL. Storm motions are
expected to parallel an axis of low level convergence, supporting
training rounds of heavy rain, containing hourly rainfall of 1 to
2+ inches.

Portions of western IA have received 3 to 6+ inches of rain over
the past 2-3 days which has increased soil moisture values and
reduced infiltration capabilities of additional heavy rainfall.
Flash flood guidance (FFG) for this portion of IA was 1.5 to 2.5
inches in 3 hours with surrounding areas to the west and east
containing 3-hr FFG values of about 2-3 inches. While the location
of the southern-most overrunning boundary and low level jet
orientation may focus the heaviest rainfall east of the lower FFG
values of western IA, the setup still appears likely to favor
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding later tonight.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7U2woauqqyLtW7aizDxlTOhuQ-cobZUhT-eKY6wyhN1u8NlZX7FKwjxqGvzK4ddY0XxEPPftN5DUwPTdlxjnR_e_uk0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...GID...LOT...MKX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43309046 43238981 42758932 42208956 41668991
40979173 40589522 40769728 41389776 41889745
42279616 42529425 43019188

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 00:45:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 090044
FFGMPD
KSZ000-COZ000-090635-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1226
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
844 PM EDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Areas affected...eastern CO into western KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090042Z - 090635Z

SUMMARY...Brief training and hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches may
result in isolated flash flooding from portions of eastern CO into
western KS through 06Z.

DISCUSSION...Infrared satellite and radar imagery from KPUX showed
showers and thunderstorms moving east off of the central Rockies
into the High Plains as of 0020Z with the strongest region across
northern Pueblo County with cloud tops that continued to expand
and cool. 00Z surface observations showed southeastern to eastern
CO was in a post-frontal environment with easterly/upslope flow in
place. KPUX VAD wind and RAP analysis data showed that the
easterly winds of 10-20 kt extended up 4-5 kft above the surface,
veering toward a unidirectional WSW direction in the mid to upper
levels.

SPC mesoanalysis data from 00Z showed MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg from
southeastern CO into western KS (highest to east) but with at
least weak CIN over the entire region. However, as
showers/thunderstorms continue to advance farther east into the
High Plains, moistening of lower level profiles within the upslope
flow may help the development of pockets of uninhibited elevated
instability across portions of eastern CO into western KS.
Kinematic profiles suggest that individual cells and/or any
clustering of storms should translate eastward at a progressive
pace. However, there is some potential for convective development
out ahead of any thunderstorm activity advancing eastward through
southeastern CO, setting up potential for short term training. The
environment will be capable of 1 to 2 inch per hour rainfall and
the isolated potential for 2-3 inch totals. Given the fairly low
flash flood guidance values of 1.5 to 2.5 inches in 3 hours over
much of eastern CO into western KS, an isolated exceedance or two
may occur through about 06Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8Vy-o45OKAmKHm1RHLCH4MbdLH-5WHCqc4nEayHTq1fmntn6iz2S2eYRcijVdhWxFbiV8GcRZRet95GrwwoQMKSAaig$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39360165 39120132 38650129 38060186 37750255
37540372 37560471 37980513 38430512 38750482
39050409 39350269

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

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