Forum: Unleashed

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 3 17:24:44 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 031724
SWODY2
SPC AC 031722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...AND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS......

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and marginally
severe hail appear possible in southeast Arizona, south-central
Colorado, and north-central and northeast New Mexico Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Locally damaging winds may occur with
stronger storms in the Carolinas.

...Synopsis...
A broad trough across southern Canada will bring enhanced westerly
flow aloft across the Northern Rockies into Upper Midwest and
Central Plains. A shortwave trough will move across the Mid-Missouri
Valley late in the period. Weak troughing will be in place across
the eastern US, with a weak upper-level low across northern Georgia
into the Carolinas. At the surface, a cold front will extend for the
Great Lakes Region south and west into the Mid-Missouri Valley and
into the Southern High Plains.

...Southeast Arizona...
Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected across the
high terrain in southeastern Arizona Tuesday afternoon. Convection
will likely build along the high terrain before moving into the
lower deserts by the late afternoon. A deeply mixed and hot air mass
will be in place with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Guidance
suggests that at least moderate instability will be available. This
may allow for a few isolated stronger clusters with potential for
damaging winds through the late afternoon/early evening.

...South-central Colorado and north-central and northeast New
Mexico...
A narrow corridor of instability will overlap with sufficient deep
layer shear near the Sangre De Cristo Mountains in northern New
Mexico/southern Colorado Tuesday afternoon. This will be in the
region where a surface front intersects the terrain within a favored
upslope region. Marginally severe hail and strong to severe wind
gusts will be possible.

...Carolinas...
A vort max will rotate through weak upper-level flow across portions
of the Carolinas and northern Georgia, providing an increase in
forcing for ascent. Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected
across the region amid a very moist and unstable air mass. Deep
layer flow will be fairly weak but steepening low level lapse rates
and moist profiles may support a few isolated wet downbursts.

...Middle and Lower Missouri Valley into the upper Midwest...
Convection is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period
Tuesday morning across portions of the Mid-Missouri Valley, which
may linger into the early afternoon. Forcing for ascent will remain
fairly weak during the daytime before a mid-level shortwave rotates
through the flow late in the period. Guidance continues to suggest
that new convective development will be primarily north of the
surface boundary and within a region of poor lapse rates and
marginal instability. Nonetheless, strong deep layer shear will be
present. A few stronger cells may produce gusty winds.

..Thornton.. 08/03/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 4 05:57:46 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 040557
SWODY2
SPC AC 040556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSOURI
INTO ILLINOIS...OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms appear possible from Missouri into central
Illinois, over portions of southeast Arizona, and from northeast New
Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

...MO...southern IA...central IL...
A shortwave trough will move across the Upper Midwest to Great Lakes
on Wednesday, with a weak surface trough roughly from northern MI
southwestward into northern MO. A plume of upper 60s to low 70s F
dewpoints will exist from MO into IA and IL, supporting around 1500
J/kg MUCAPE. This, combined with around 35 kt deep shear should
support scattered strong to severe storms with mixed mode. Locally
damaging wind gusts are most likely as storms congeal and produce
outflow. A few of the initial cells may produce marginal hail.

...Northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles...
Storms should form over the high terrain of northeast NM after 20Z
with a modest northwest flow regime aloft. High pressure will exist
over the central Plains, but surface winds will back to easterly and
provide moisture into the region late in the day. Strong heating and
steep low-level lapse rates will foster strong wind gusts.

...Southeast AZ...
Westerly surface winds with 50s to near 60 F dewpoints and daytime
heating will support storms over the eastern Mogollon Rim / White
Mtns, with some west/southwest propagation possible. MUCAPE should
rise to at least 1500 J/kg, with PWAT near 1.25" supporting locally
strong wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 08/04/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 4 17:27:18 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 041727
SWODY2
SPC AC 041725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSOURI
INTO ILLINOIS...NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms appear possible from Missouri into central
Illinois, over portions of southeast Arizona, and from northeast New
Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

...Missouri/Iowa/Illinois...
Broad troughing over the north-central CONUS into the Great Lakes
region will bring moderate to seasonably strong mid-level flow
across the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valleys. Large-scale lift will
not be overly strong, though embedded shortwave troughs may augment
lift locally. Along a surface trough from the lower Great Lakes
southwestward into the central Plains, dewpoints of mid/upper 60s to
low 70s F are expected. 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE will be possible by
the afternoon. The strongest shear will likely remain on the cool
side of the surface boundary, but 30-35 kt of effective shear will
be sufficient for a few organized storms. Initial cells will be
capable of marginally severe hail. Clusters/linear segments will be
the predominant storm modes with an associated risk of damaging
winds.

...New Mexico into the Panhandles...
Moist upslope flow into the Raton Mesa will allow for storm
development by late afternoon. Modest northwesterly flow aloft
(around 35-40 kt of effective shear) will promote marginally
organized storms. Strong/severe winds will be the main hazard given
strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates.

...Arizona...
A moist airmass (50s to perhaps near 60 F dewpoints) will be in
place during the afternoon/evening. Westerly surface winds will
promote storm development within eastern portion of the Mogollon
Rim. Modest easterly winds aloft should be sufficient to move
activity off of the Rim into the lower deserts. Strong/severe wind
gusts will be possible especially where clustering of outflow
occurs.

..Wendt.. 08/04/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 5 05:50:20 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 050550
SWODY2
SPC AC 050548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA...AND FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms may occur over small parts of the Great Plains,
and over the Northeast on Thursday with locally strong wind gusts.
Isolated hail may occur with the Northern Plains activity.

...Central SD into northwest NE...
A shortwave trough will move southeastward across SK/MB, with at
least some influence extending southward across the northern Plains.
A surface trough will develop southward into central SD and western
NE, where strong heating will occur. A narrow band of uncapped
instability is forecast, with several models indicating scattered
storms late in the day. Southerly 850 mb winds over 20 kt will
aid/maintain moisture into the area, and forecast soundings show
marginally favorable hodographs for supercells. Localized hail may
occur initially, with some clustering and wind potential into the
early evening.

...Southern KS into northwest OK...
A surface trough/wind shift is forecast to exist from southern KS
into northern OK, with southerly winds and strong heating to the
south. Near/north of the boundary, winds will remain southeasterly
with higher dewpoints. General model consensus is for the deeply
mixed boundary layer to support an uncapped air mass, with a zone of
storms developing. These will likely produce strong outflow, and a
few severe gusts may occur.

...Northeast...
Southwest winds aloft will persist over the region as an upper high
remains over the Atlantic and a shortwave trough approaches the
Lower Great Lakes by late afternoon. Height tendencies will remain
neutral from NY into WV/VA during the day, but strong heating, PWAT
near 2.00" and sufficient MUCAPE should aid scattered storm
development near a weak surface trough after 19Z. This would include
from south-central NY into central PA and across the higher terrain
of western VA. A few strong gusts cannot be ruled out.

..Jewell.. 08/05/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 5 17:29:00 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 051728
SWODY2
SPC AC 051726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...NORTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms may occur over small parts of the Great Plains,
and over the Northeast on Thursday with locally strong wind gusts.
Isolated hail may occur with the Northern Plains/Ozarks activity.

...Northwest Oklahoma into southwest Missouri...
A stalled surface boundary is expected to be draped across southern
Kansas into central Missouri. The Missouri portion of the boundary
will likely be reinforced by early day convection/cloud cover.
Strong heating south of the boundary will allow for locally enhanced
surface convergence. Storm development is possible along the
boundary, though it remains uncertain where this development is most
probable. The presence of the broad trough to the north will support
sufficient shear that storms would be at least marginally organized.
Damaging wind gusts will likely be the main threat with this
activity with marginal hail possible where buoyancy will be locally
greater in Missouri.

...Northeast...
Areas of modest to strong heating of a very moist (70+ F dewpoints)
airmass will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid-afternoon.
Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but enhanced mid-level
winds associated with the Great Lakes trough will promote marginally
organized clusters/linear segments. Isolated wind damage will be
possible with this activity.

...Nebraska/South Dakota...
A secondary cold front will develop within the northern Plains.
Moisture return ahead of the boundary will bring upper 50s to low
60s F dewpoint northward. Mid-level heights are forecast to rise
slightly during the period. Given effective shear of around 40 kt
across the boundary, an isolated supercell or two will be possible
where surface heating can remove MLCIN. Severe winds and marginally
severe hail would be the expected hazards. The Marginal risk remains
where confidence in storm development is highest, though a storm or
two could develop farther northeast. Confidence remains too low for
an expansion of probabilities.

..Wendt.. 08/05/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 6 05:41:34 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 060541
SWODY2
SPC AC 060539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms may occur from Iowa across Wisconsin
and into Upper Michigan Friday, with areas of strong/damaging wind
gusts and isolated marginal hail. Other storms may produce locally
damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast.

...IA...southeast MN...WI...Upper MI...
Moderate northwest flow aloft will move across the northern Plains
and into the Upper MS Valley, with a cold front extending from
northwest WI into IA by late afternoon. A moist air mass with 70s F
dewpoints will exist ahead of the front, contributing to 2000-3000
J/kg MUCAPE. Supporting the potentially strong instability will be
relatively cool 500 mb temperatures to around -10 C.

Storms are likely to form during the afternoon along the front with
scattered marginal hail or strong wind gusts. Deep-layer shear will
not be particularly strong. Some potential may develop for an MCS
over southern areas including IA, and this area will be monitored
for potential greater wind probabilities.

...Northern VA into PA and southern NY...
Midlevel southwesterlies around 25 kt will exist across the
northeastern states on Friday, with weak height falls occurring as a
primary upper trough moves across the Great Lake region. In the low
levels, west/southwest winds around the Atlantic high will maintain
a warm/moist air mass, which when heated during the afternoon should
yield up to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE, especially near the coastal areas
where dewpoints will be higher.

Despite lack of any surface boundaries, model consensus is for
scattered storms to develop from northern VA/MD into central to
eastern PA and across southern NY during the afternoon. Shear will
be weak but a few clusters of storms may produce gusty winds.

..Jewell.. 08/06/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 6 17:38:18 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 061735
SWODY2
SPC AC 061734

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN...PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms may occur from the Mid-Missouri Valley
across Wisconsin and into Upper Michigan Friday, with areas of
strong/damaging wind gusts and isolated marginal hail. Other storms
may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast and
hail over parts of central Nebraska/South Dakota.

...Mid-Missouri Valley into Wisconsin/Upper Peninsular Michigan...
A cold front will move into the Upper Midwest during the afternoon.
Moisture return ahead of the front will maintain upper 60s F farther
north to low 70s F dewpoints across Iowa/southern Minnesota.
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected during the afternoon. The
approaching mid-level jet will bring stronger mid-level flow and
30-45 kt of effective shear to the region (stronger shear will
generally exist with southwestward extent). Initial activity will
likely be cellular with a tendency to become more linear with time.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns. Given the
stronger buoyancy and shear within Iowa, there is greater potential
for an MCS to develop with an associated greater risk for wind
damage. Variance is relatively high within model guidance as to
where this corridor will exist due in part to the subtle forcing.
Some guidance suggests a cluster of activity is possible during the
morning hours. This could intensify as the airmass destabilizes
during the day. Other guidance suggests limited morning activity
with storms forming along the front farther east. An increase in
wind probabilities is possible as confidence increases.

...South Dakota/Nebraska...
At least moderate elevated instability is forecast to develop as a
low-level jet intensifies within the region late Friday night into
early Saturday morning. Several CAMs and global guidance suggest
development will occur. Sufficient mid-level flow on the southern
flank of the northern Plains trough will allow for organized storms.
Steep mid-level lapse rates will support a risk for isolated large
hail.

...Northern Mid-Atlantic...
Though mid-level winds will be slightly weaker than on Thursday, the
approach of a modest trough will allow for marginally organized
storms within a very moist environment. Afternoon MLCAPE will near
2000 J/kg in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Model consensus continues to
support the potential for widely scattered to scattered storms
within this weakly capped airmass. Isolated damaging winds will be
possible.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
Given the presence of a stalled boundary/outflow, some potential
exists for storms to develop during the afternoon. Confidence on
where this boundary will be placed is quite low at this time.
Deep-layer shear will also be somewhat weak as well. Given these
factors, severe wind probabilities will be withheld, though isolated
wind damage could occur.

..Wendt.. 08/06/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 7 05:59:10 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 070558
SWODY2
SPC AC 070557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER TO MID
MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Saturday
afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern
Plains southeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley.

...Central and Northern Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
At mid-levels, northwesterly flow will be in place on Saturday over
much of the north-central U.S. as the southern edge of a jet streak
moves across the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southward through the Dakotas. To the south of the front, a
moist axis is forecast to be in place from central South Dakota
southward into southern Nebraska and eastward into north-central
Missouri. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop
along the moist axis by afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be
relatively weak throughout the region which will keep convection
isolated. The most favorable areas for isolated thunderstorm
development could be over central and eastern Nebraska, where some
models focus low-level convergence near a low-level jet in the
evening. Additional storms could develop along a moisture gradient
in northern Missouri. NAM forecast soundings from Nebraska into
southern South Dakota in the late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the
35 to 45 knot range with steep low-level lapse rates. This could
support supercells and organized multicells capable of severe wind
gusts and hail. Isolated severe gusts could also occur southeastward
along and near the instability gradient in northern Missouri.

..Broyles.. 08/07/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 7 17:33:10 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 071733
SWODY2
SPC AC 071731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Saturday
afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern
Plains southeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley.
Additional strong to severe storms are possible in the Mid-Atlantic
and central/southeast Arizona.

...Central Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley...
A complex forecast scenario continues to be evident on Saturday.
Models continue to show a focused low-level jet into western
Nebraska/South Dakota early Saturday morning. Some convection may be
associated with this feature, though storm coverage is not clear.
Depending on the evolution of that activity, some risk for severe
winds and large hail is possible. Storm coverage will largely
dictate how long early morning activity can persist into the
afternoon as warming temperatures aloft are expected during the day.
A strong enough cold pool would have to evolve in order to allow
convection to propagate southeastward with the low-level jet
decreasing into the late morning/early afternoon. Convective
development during the afternoon is far from certain given the
aforementioned capping that will exist. Forcing for ascent will be
weak as well. Some guidance does show some thunderstorm development
along the cold front in parts of the eastern Dakotas/western
Minnesota. The Marginal has been expanded into these areas to
account for this potential hail/wind threat.

By late afternoon/early evening, an intensifying low-level jet will
be focused within the Mid-Missouri Valley. Storm development will
become more likely along the warm front as this occurs. However, the
strongest activity may not form until around 06Z. This reduces
confidence in how severe the activity will be, particularly in terms
of severe wind. Again, the Marginal was expanded to the north/east
to encompass the various model solutions. Large hail would be
possible even with elevated storms given sufficient shear and steep
mid-level lapse rates. A greater threat for severe wind gusts may
still develop, but this is conditional on enough of a cold pool
developing. Confidence remains rather low.

...Mid-Atlantic...
A modest, low-amplitude shortwave trough will be favorably timed
with afternoon heating. Widely scattered to scattered storms are
possible ahead of this feature. Deep-layer shear will not be overly
strong, but should be sufficient for strong/marginally severe cells
and clusters. Storm coverage is not certain given the veered,
deep-layer flow, but most model guidance suggests locally greater
storm coverage from northern Virginia into eastern Pennsylvania and
adjacent New Jersey. Wind damage will be the main concern.

...Arizona...
Low 60s F dewpoints are forecast to remain within the lower desert
areas. Strong heating should promote destabilization during the
afternoon/early evening. Most CAM guidance suggests that one or more
clusters will develop on the Mogollon Rim and move west/southwest.
Severe wind gusts will be possible with this activity.

..Wendt.. 08/07/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 8 06:02:12 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 080602
SWODY2
SPC AC 080600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Sunday
afternoon and evening from parts of the northern Plains
east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes. Severe gusts will
also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians, Maine and
southeast Arizona.

...Northern Plains/Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Southern Great
Lakes...
Mid-level flow will be west-northwesterly on Sunday from the
northern Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a moist and
unstable airmass will be in place from South Dakota eastward into
the southern Great Lakes. Although moderate instability is forecast
to develop over much of this corridor by afternoon, large-scale
ascent will remain relatively weak. For that reason, thunderstorm
development will confined to areas where low-level convergence
becomes maximized. Some solutions show an east-to-west axis of
strong low-level convergence from Iowa into northern Indiana,
suggesting this could be a favored area for thunderstorm development
in the afternoon and evening.

Forecast soundings near this axis in the late afternoon have surface
dewpoints in the 70s with moderate to strong instability. 0-6 km
shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range with a
substantial amount of low-level directional shear. This should
support a severe threat with supercells and short intense line
segments. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat.

Further west into parts of the northern Plains, a subtle shortwave
trough is forecast to move into South Dakota during the day. A
post-frontal airmass will be in place ahead of the shortwave with
surface dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F. This will contribute to
moderate instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop near
the axis of instability will have potential for isolated severe
gusts during the late afternoon and early evening.

...Maine...
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Great
Lakes on Sunday, with west-southwesterly flow located over the
Northeast. Ahead of the system, a cold front is forecast to move
eastward across New England. As surface temperatures warm during the
day, thunderstorm development is expected to take place near the
front in the higher terrain across parts of western Maine. These
storms are forecast to move quickly eastward across central and
eastern Maine during the afternoon. Moderate instability, steep low
lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear will likely support an
isolated wind-damage threat.

...Southern Appalachians...
Moderate instability will develop on Sunday across much of the
southern Appalachians, where surface dewpoints will be in the upper
60s to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day,
scattered thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain. The
moderate instability, along with precipitable water values in the
1.70 to 1.85 inch range, will support a potential for isolated
severe wet downbursts as instability becomes maximized in the late
afternoon.

...Southeast Arizona...
Surface dewpoints across southern Arizona will be in the upper 50s
to near 60 F on Sunday. As surface temperatures warm during the day,
moderate instability will develop over much of southern Arizona.
Thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain of eastern
Arizona, with the storms moving west-southwestward into the unstable
air during the late afternoon and early evening. Steep low-level
lapse rates and large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads will
support an isolated wind-damage threat.

..Broyles.. 08/08/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 8 06:32:20 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 080632
SWODY2
SPC AC 080630

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDERLINE

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Sunday
afternoon and evening from parts of the northern Plains
east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes. Severe gusts will
also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians, Maine and
southeast Arizona.

...Northern Plains/Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Southern Great
Lakes...
Mid-level flow will be west-northwesterly on Sunday from the
northern Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a moist and
unstable airmass will be in place from South Dakota eastward into
the southern Great Lakes. Although moderate instability is forecast
to develop over much of this corridor by afternoon, large-scale
ascent will remain relatively weak. For that reason, thunderstorm
development will confined to areas where low-level convergence
becomes maximized. Some solutions show an east-to-west axis of
strong low-level convergence from Iowa into northern Indiana,
suggesting this could be a favored area for thunderstorm development
in the afternoon and evening.

Forecast soundings near this axis in the late afternoon have surface
dewpoints in the 70s with moderate to strong instability. 0-6 km
shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range with a
substantial amount of low-level directional shear. This should
support a severe threat with supercells and short intense line
segments. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat.

Further west into parts of the northern Plains, a subtle shortwave
trough is forecast to move into South Dakota during the day. A
post-frontal airmass will be in place ahead of the shortwave with
surface dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F. This will contribute to
moderate instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop near
the axis of instability will have potential for isolated severe
gusts during the late afternoon and early evening.

...Maine...
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Great
Lakes on Sunday, with west-southwesterly flow located over the
Northeast. Ahead of the system, a cold front is forecast to move
eastward across New England. As surface temperatures warm during the
day, thunderstorm development is expected to take place near the
front in the higher terrain across parts of western Maine. These
storms are forecast to move quickly eastward across central and
eastern Maine during the afternoon. Moderate instability, steep low
lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear will likely support an
isolated wind-damage threat.

...Southern Appalachians...
Moderate instability will develop on Sunday across much of the
southern Appalachians, where surface dewpoints will be in the upper
60s to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day,
scattered thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain. The
moderate instability, along with precipitable water values in the
1.70 to 1.85 inch range, will support a potential for isolated
severe wet downbursts as instability becomes maximized in the late
afternoon.

...Southeast Arizona...
Surface dewpoints across southern Arizona will be in the upper 50s
to near 60 F on Sunday. As surface temperatures warm during the day,
moderate instability will develop over much of southern Arizona.
Thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain of eastern
Arizona, with the storms moving west-southwestward into the unstable
air during the late afternoon and early evening. Steep low-level
lapse rates and large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads will
support an isolated wind-damage threat.

..Broyles.. 08/08/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 8 17:35:50 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 081735
SWODY2
SPC AC 081734

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds may occur Sunday from eastern Iowa across
northern Illinois and Indiana. A concentrated area of damaging wind
and hail is also expected over much of South Dakota.

...From eastern IA into northern IN...
Storms, possibly producing strong wind gusts, may be ongoing over
much of the area Sunday morning. This potentially severe activity
could persist for much of the day as it travels southeastward with
access to a destabilizing air mass.

Behind the early activity, strong instability will develop as
low-level winds remain out of the southwest. While mid to upper
level winds will not be particularly strong, the veering low-level
winds and likelihood of redevelopment along any outflow boundaries
suggests additional severe storms during the late afternoon, moving
across much of the same areas as the early day storms. Damaging
winds appear to be the primary concern, however, a brief tornado
cannot be ruled out early in the redevelopment cycle as low-level
instability will be large, with perhaps enhanced low-level shear
near residual outflows.

...Dakotas...
Moderate northwest flow aloft will persist over the region, with
surface winds veering to east/southeast late in the day. A moist
plume should be maintained over SD within the recovering warm
advection regime, with evening 850 mb winds also increasing out of
the south. Surface based storms are expected to develop into much of
SD, with an initial large hail threat. With time, an MCS could
develop, producing a swath of damaging winds. Isolated significant
wind gusts cannot be ruled out.

..Southern AZ...
Easterly flow aloft around the upper high will support a westward
component to the storms motions on Sunday, possibly bringing locally
strong gusts into the lower elevations as storms move out of Mexico,
and possibly off the Rim. Substantial PWAT will remain over the
region with 60s F dewpoints which when combined with steep low-level
lapse rates will support afternoon storms and locally severe gusts.

...Southern Appalachians...
Storms will form over the higher terrain Sunday afternoon from
northern GA into the western Carolinas. Given sufficient storm
concentration, a few damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as storms
and outflows generally spread eastward into the diurnally heating
air mass.

..Jewell.. 08/08/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 9 05:44:22 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 090544
SWODY2
SPC AC 090542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Monday
afternoon and evening from northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible
from parts of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest.

...Southern Great Lakes...
At mid-levels, west-northwesterly flow will be in place on Monday
from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. A subtle mid-level
shortwave trough and an associated jet streak will move through the
Great Lakes. To the south of the jet streak, a cold front is
forecast to advance southward into northern Illinois, northern
Indiana and northern Ohio by mid afternoon. Low-level convergence
along the front will be a focus for convective development. To the
south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute
to moderate to strong destabilization by afternoon, with MLCAPE
likely peaking in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop near the front and move east-southeastward into
the stronger instability during the afternoon and evening.

Along the instability axis in the late afternoon from Lincoln,
Illinois to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, the ECMWF has 0-6 km shear
around 30 knots. This should support a mixed mode, with short
intense line segments and embedded rotating storms possible. The
primary threat will damaging wind gusts, with the maximum threat
located ahead of any cold pool that can organize. The severe threat
could persist into the early to mid evening, especially if MCS
development takes place, maintained by increasing low-level flow.

...Central and Northern Plains/Midwest...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the
north-central U.S. on Monday. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast
to move east-southeastward across the northern Plains. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward across
western South Dakota during the day, with a dryline extending
southward into western Nebraska. To the east of the dryline, surface
dewpoints in the 60s and 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms appear likely to
develop near the dryline during the mid to late afternoon.
Additional isolated storms are expected to develop further east
along the moist axis from eastern Nebraska into Iowa.

Forecast sounding along the moist axis in the late afternoon have
MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear
around 30 knots. This environment, combined with steep low to
mid-level lapse rates, will support isolated potential for severe
wind gusts and hail.

..Broyles.. 08/09/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 9 17:39:00 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 091738
SWODY2
SPC AC 091737

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM
ILLINOIS EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Monday
afternoon and evening from northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible
from parts of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest, with
scattered strong storms over southern Arizona.

...From northern IL eastward into PA...
A leading shortwave trough may support early day thunderstorms over
portions of NY and PA, though probably not immediately severe. Some
chance exists for re-development from southern New England into NJ
during the afternoon as a surface trough develops, and at least
isolated severe activity is possible. Additional afternoon storms
may develop across the remainder of NY and PA as instability
develops behind the initial wave with areas of strong gusts and
marginal hail.

While isolated wind/hail may occur during the early to mid afternoon
as the air mass becomes uncapped, a greater coverage of severe
storms is expected during the late afternoon and into the evening
from southern WI/IL into IN and OH. Here, a large area of strong
instability will develop, with a persistent/deepening boundary layer
theta-e plume out of the southwest. The high PWAT, relatively steep
midlevel lapse rates, and deep layer shear of 40-50 kt will support
supercell development, with possible bowing structures with time.
Large hail, perhaps an isolated tornado, and damaging winds will be
possible.

...Northern Plains...
Southeast surface winds will maintain 60s F dewpoints into NE and SD
during the afternoon as strong heating occurs near a surface trough
over the High Plains/Black Hills. This will occur beneath moderate
westerly flow aloft, which will elongate hodographs and produce
favorable deep-layer shear for long-lived cells or bows. Storm
coverage is uncertain, but the conditional risk for large damaging
hail and wind is high. At least isolated cells are expected to form
near the Black Hills and into western NE where heating will be
strong, with perhaps greater storm chances increasing after 00Z into
the central Dakotas with the aid of a modest nocturnal low-level
jet.

...Southern AZ...
Substantial moisture will remain over the area Monday, with PWAT
over 1.25" and areas of 60s F dewpoints. Westerly surface winds are
forecast to develop during the afternoon over southern AZ, which
when combined with the deep easterlies aloft, will support
westward-propagating cells. Storms should form near the Rim and over
the higher terrain of southeast AZ, with locally severe gusts as
activity moves across the lowlands. A storm or two could potentially
produce small hail as well as deep-layer effective shear will be
over 30 kt.

..Jewell.. 08/09/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 10 06:01:02 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 100600
SWODY2
SPC AC 100559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible on
Tuesday from parts of the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians
in the afternoon and evening. Isolated severe wind gusts and hail
will also be possible from parts of the central and northern Plains
into the Midwest.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...
At mid-levels, west-northwesterly flow will remain in place on
Tuesday from the northern Plains to the central Appalachians. At the
surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located from
northern Illinois east-southeastward into far northern Kentucky. To
the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F
will result in moderate to strong instability by midday. Low-level
convergence along the boundary will likely be the focus for
convective initiation during the day. It appears that an intense
line segment could develop and move east-southeastward along and
near the frontal zone from mid afternoon to mid evening. However,
there is some uncertainty concerning where the boundary from morning
convection will be in the afternoon.

Forecast soundings along and to the south of the front from
east-central Illinois into far northern Kentucky at 21Z have MLCAPE
in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Wind profiles along this
west-northwest to east-southeast corridor have directional shear in
the boundary layer with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow in
the mid-levels. Some of this zone could have 0-6 km shear in the 40
to 50 knot range along with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around
200 m2/s2. This would support supercells with severe wind gusts and
an isolated tornado threat. Some model forecasts, including the HRRR
suggest that an organized cold pool will develop during the late
afternoon. This scenario could result in a swath of wind damage
across parts of the Ohio Valley.

...Central and Northern Plains/Midwest...
At mid-levels, rising heights and west-northwesterly flow will be in
place over the north-central U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold
front will move southeastward across the northern High Plains, as a
low deepens across South Dakota. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints in the 60s and 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Low-level convergence will aid convective
initiation during the mid to late afternoon, with isolated storms
moving east-southeastward from the northern Plains into the Midwest.

Across the moist airmass, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000 to
3000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range. This
will support supercells with isolated severe wind gusts and hail.
However, the rising mid-level heights and lack of large-scale ascent
could result in a more localized severe threat.

..Broyles.. 08/10/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 10 17:33:46 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 101733
SWODY2
SPC AC 101731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST
OHIO...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN IOWA
TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND OVER THE DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible
Tuesday from the eastern Iowa/northern Illinois vicinity into parts
of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Areas of severe wind
gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the northern
Plains.

...From eastern IA into IL...IN...OH...Northern KY...WV...
Moderate northwest flow aloft will persist over the region on
Tuesday, while a large area of moisture and instability remain in
place. Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible throughout
the region, with some uncertainty regarding timing and placement.
However, the corridor of highest wind damage probability appears to
be tied to early day storms which will be moving across IA. Several
models suggest an organized MCS early on Tuesday, which would then
proceed east/southeast during the day. This scenario seems plausible
as instability will be strong with MUCAPE over 3000 J/kg, steep
midlevel lapse rates, and moderate deep-layer mean wind speeds. A
few significant wind gusts over 75 mph may occur, depending on MCS organization. Additional late day cells may redevelop along any
trailing outflow, affecting areas from northern KY into WV and
western VA with damaging gusts potential.

...Dakotas into MN and IA...
A surface trough will develop during the afternoon as strong heating
occurs, beneath moderate northwest flow aloft. Storms are expected
to form after 21Z from the Black Hills into western ND, proceeding east/southeast into the central Dakotas and northern NE through the
evening. Deep-layer shear around 40 kt and substantial instability
will favor cells capable of large hail.

There is significant uncertainly in whether storms will aggregate
into an MCS, which could potentially spread into more of southern MN
and IA Wednesday morning. If this occurs, damaging winds would be
possible.

..Jewell.. 08/10/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 11 06:02:48 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 110602
SWODY2
SPC AC 110600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High
Plains. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will also be possible
across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

...Parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Guidance continues to vary considerably regarding potential for
early-day convection across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
Any morning convection will in turn influence the position of an
effective frontal zone that will generally extend from parts of the
mid MO Valley into the lower OH Valley. Strong heating, rich
low-level moisture, and generally steep lapse rates will result in
strong to extreme buoyancy to the warm side of the front, with
substantial MUCAPE possible to the immediate cool side of the front.

Multiple scenarios are possible. There will be some potential for
any early-day storm cluster to propagate southeastward through the
day, with a damaging-wind and isolated hail threat. Diurnal
development will be possible in the vicinity of the frontal zone,
with sufficient deep-layer shear for initial supercell potential.
Hail and possibly a tornado could accompany the strongest diurnal
storms, though there may be a tendency for clustering and perhaps
organized upscale growth, with increasing wind-damage potential.
While uncertainty remains high, one or more rounds of
organized-severe potential could evolve in the vicinity of the
frontal zone, and a 15% wind area was added where guidance currently
has the greatest signal for development.

...Parts of the central/northern High Plains into the lower/mid
Missouri Valley...
To the north of a surface low across southeast CO and an
eastward-extending warm front, moist low-level easterly flow will
support potential for moderate to locally strong destabilization
across parts of western SD/NE into northwest KS/far northeast CO.
Midlevel flow will be relatively modest, but veering wind profiles
will result in sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization.

Initial isolated to widely scattered discrete development could pose
a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. Some upscale growth and
possible MCS development may occur during the late evening and
overnight across parts of central/eastern NE and vicinity. Guidance
varies regarding the organization of any nocturnal MCS, but at least
isolated damaging-wind potential could spread eastward through the
end of the period.

...Northern SD/southern ND into parts of MN/WI/MI...
While the strongest instability will remain south of the region,
moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop along/ahead of a front
draped from near the ND/SD border into southern MN, WI, and Lower
MI. Coverage of storms is uncertain within this regime, but moderate northwesterly mid/upper-level flow and favorable deep-layer shear
will support organized convection, with a threat for strong to
locally severe gusts and hail if any sustained storms develop.

...Carolinas/Southern Appalachians...
The evolution of antecedent upstream convection will have a
considerable influence on the position of the primary surface front
and any organized severe threat across parts of the southern
Appalachians and Carolinas region on Wednesday. At least isolated
storm development will be possible near the front and also across
favored terrain areas, with modest west-northwesterly flow aloft
supporting potential for outflow-driven cells/clusters with a threat
of wind damage. Any features favorably timed with the diurnal cycle
(such as a persistent storm cluster or MCV) could result in a
greater coverage of wind-damage potential, but confidence in the
details is too low for more than 5% wind probabilities at this time.

..Dean.. 08/11/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 11 12:10:18 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 111210
SWODY2
SPC AC 111208

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0708 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR REVERSED THUNDER LINE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL US

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High
Plains. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will also be possible
across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

...Parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Guidance continues to vary considerably regarding potential for
early-day convection across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
Any morning convection will in turn influence the position of an
effective frontal zone that will generally extend from parts of the
mid MO Valley into the lower OH Valley. Strong heating, rich
low-level moisture, and generally steep lapse rates will result in
strong to extreme buoyancy to the warm side of the front, with
substantial MUCAPE possible to the immediate cool side of the front.

Multiple scenarios are possible. There will be some potential for
any early-day storm cluster to propagate southeastward through the
day, with a damaging-wind and isolated hail threat. Diurnal
development will be possible in the vicinity of the frontal zone,
with sufficient deep-layer shear for initial supercell potential.
Hail and possibly a tornado could accompany the strongest diurnal
storms, though there may be a tendency for clustering and perhaps
organized upscale growth, with increasing wind-damage potential.
While uncertainty remains high, one or more rounds of
organized-severe potential could evolve in the vicinity of the
frontal zone, and a 15% wind area was added where guidance currently
has the greatest signal for development.

...Parts of the central/northern High Plains into the lower/mid
Missouri Valley...
To the north of a surface low across southeast CO and an
eastward-extending warm front, moist low-level easterly flow will
support potential for moderate to locally strong destabilization
across parts of western SD/NE into northwest KS/far northeast CO.
Midlevel flow will be relatively modest, but veering wind profiles
will result in sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization.

Initial isolated to widely scattered discrete development could pose
a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. Some upscale growth and
possible MCS development may occur during the late evening and
overnight across parts of central/eastern NE and vicinity. Guidance
varies regarding the organization of any nocturnal MCS, but at least
isolated damaging-wind potential could spread eastward through the
end of the period.

...Northern SD/southern ND into parts of MN/WI/MI...
While the strongest instability will remain south of the region,
moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop along/ahead of a front
draped from near the ND/SD border into southern MN, WI, and Lower
MI. Coverage of storms is uncertain within this regime, but moderate northwesterly mid/upper-level flow and favorable deep-layer shear
will support organized convection, with a threat for strong to
locally severe gusts and hail if any sustained storms develop.

...Carolinas/Southern Appalachians...
The evolution of antecedent upstream convection will have a
considerable influence on the position of the primary surface front
and any organized severe threat across parts of the southern
Appalachians and Carolinas region on Wednesday. At least isolated
storm development will be possible near the front and also across
favored terrain areas, with modest west-northwesterly flow aloft
supporting potential for outflow-driven cells/clusters with a threat
of wind damage. Any features favorably timed with the diurnal cycle
(such as a persistent storm cluster or MCV) could result in a
greater coverage of wind-damage potential, but confidence in the
details is too low for more than 5% wind probabilities at this time.

..Dean.. 08/11/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 11 17:36:20 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 111736
SWODY2
SPC AC 111734

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High
Plains. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will also be possible
across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

...Illinois/Lower Ohio Valley...
Forecast uncertainty remains high for these regions. Morning
convection, or lack thereof, will influence the location/magnitude
of afternoon severe potential. At least modest southwesterly flow at
low levels is expected to continue into Wednesday morning. It is at
least plausible that the boundary within Iowa/Illinois remains
stationary or makes only modest southward progress. Weak warm
advection may promote elevated storms in northern Illinois by mid
morning. These storms could produce large hail and isolated wind
damage. Into the afternoon, this activity could have a tendency to
develop southward into a very moist, destabilizing airmass in the
Lower Ohio Valley. Another possibility is the development along the
surface boundary during the afternoon. The eastward progress of
storms will likely be limited as substantial impact from convection
is anticipated from Tuesday afternoon/evening. Steep mid-level lapse
rates and 40-45 kt of effective shear will allow for organized
storms capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds. Damaging
winds are expected to be the main threat as upscale growth is
expected to occur quickly. The 15% Wind/Slight Risk has been
adjusted northward and eastward to account for trends in guidance
and expected airmass destabilization.

...Central Plains...
Moist, easterly flow north of a developing surface low in eastern Colorado/western Kansas will allow for moderate to strong
destabilization across parts of Nebraska/southern South Dakota.
Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate to strong effective shear
will promote supercell development from near the Black Hills to
southwestern Nebraska. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts
would be possible initially. Some intensification of the low-level
jet may lead to upscale growth into one or more linear segments
moving eastward. The potential for a more organized MCS is not clear
given the low-level jet will be focused farther east. Elevated
storms associated with the low-level jet core are possible in
eastern Nebraska/western Iowa where large hail and isolated wind
gusts may occur.

...North Dakota into Wisconsin Michigan...
Modest destabilization is expected farther north into the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Sufficient mid-level flow will
be present for organized storms. The main questions will be storm
coverage and longevity. Isolated wind damage and large hail would
occur with the strongest, sustained storms.

...Carolinas/southern Appalachians...
Uncertainty in the evolution of early morning convection remains
relatively high. While an MCV from convection in the Ohio Valley may
impact parts of these regions, the timing of this feature may not
lend to an organized severe threat during the afternoon. The
Marginal risk will be maintained this outlook cycle for potential
isolated strong to severe storms. However, the potential for
sufficient airmaass destabilization continues to appear low.

..Wendt.. 08/11/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 12 06:02:04 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 120601
SWODY2
SPC AC 120600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from the Colorado
Front Range and central High Plains into the Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
Some amplification of the upper-level pattern is expected on
Thursday across the central/eastern CONUS. An upper ridge initially
over the lower MS Valley is forecast to expand and build northward
into parts of the Great Plains. To the east of building ridge, a
seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to
move southeastward across the Great Lakes towards the Northeast. A
surface low is forecast to remain in place across the south-central
Plains. A nearly stationary front is forecast to extend
east-northeast of the low toward the lower MO Valley, and then east-southeastward toward the lower OH Valley.

...Central Plains into parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Isolated severe potential remains evident in the vicinity of the
surface front on Thursday, though confidence in the details remains
low. Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing
at the start of the period from eastern NE into parts of IA/northern
MO. Depending on the extent to which the early-day convection can
propagate within the rich moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy
along the frontal zone, some severe threat could spread
east-southeastward toward the lower OH Valley through the day.

Otherwise, isolated storms may develop near/north of the front
through the day, with an increase in coverage expected Thursday
evening within a warm-advection regime. Generally modest and
front-parallel mid/upper-level flow may lead to training storms and
a tendency for convection to be undercut or generally remain
somewhat elevated. However, deep-layer shear will still be modestly
supportive of organized convection within the moist and unstable
environment, with some potential for isolated damaging gusts and
hail.

...CO Front Range into the adjacent High Plains...
To the north/northwest of the primary surface low, moist easterly
low-level flow will support moderate to locally strong
destabilization from the CO Front Range into parts of the central
High Plains. Deep-layer flow will generally remain modest, but
veering wind profiles will provide sufficient effective shear for
some storm organization. Isolated hail and locally severe gusts will
be possible with the strongest storms in this region.
Isolated to widely scattered storms will also be possible within the
hot and well-mixed regime near/south of the front and surface low.
Weak deep-layer shear should limit storm organization in this
regime, but steep low-level lapse rates could support localized
severe gusts.

...Northeast...
Seasonably strong mid/upper-level flow will overspread the Northeast
on Thursday. However, low-level flow will remain rather weak, and
generally modest moisture and lapse rates will limit
destabilization. MLCAPE Of 500-1000 J/kg will support development of
widely scattered thunderstorms across northern New England. There
will be some displacement between the strongest deep-layer flow and
more favorable buoyancy. Small hail and gusty winds could accompany
the strongest storms, but confidence in sufficient destabilization
remains too low for severe probabilities at this time.

...Southeast...
Thunderstorm development is expected across parts of AL/GA/SC on
Thursday, within a very warm and moist environment. Guidance varies
regarding the extent to which early-day convection and related
outflow move into the region from the north, and the influence any
such convection/outflow would have on storm development and
evolution later in the day. In general, deep-layer flow/shear will
be weak, but the very warm and moist environment could support
localized downburst potential. Confidence in an organized severe
threat is currently low, but if trends support the presence of any
outflow boundaries or remnant MCVs emanating from upstream, then
wind probabilities may eventually be needed for some part of this
region.

...Great Basin...
Storm development is again expected across parts of the Great Basin
on Thursday afternoon, with coverage potentially aided by a midlevel
trough approaching the region from central/southern CA. Deep-layer
shear will remain modest at best, but favorable lapse rates and
cooling temperatures aloft could support relatively vigorous
updrafts with potential for localized strong to severe gusts.
Uncertainty remains regarding the organization of any severe threat,
but wind probabilities may eventually be needed for this area as
well.

..Dean.. 08/12/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 05:14:14 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 050514
SWODY2
SPC AC 050512

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong wind gusts are likely across the Southeast Sunday afternoon
and early evening. A more uncertain risk for severe wind and hail is
expected across parts of Montana into the northern Plains and Middle
Missouri Valley.

...MT into the northern Plains and Mid-MO Valley...

The upper ridge centered over the Plains on Sunday will begin to
weaken and shift east as a western upper shortwave trough develops
eastward toward the northern Rockies. As this occurs, several
shortwave impulses will migrate through the top of the ridge over
the northern Plains and Mid-MO Valley. Southwesterly deep-layer flow
also will increase later in the period across MT and the High Plains
with the approaching of the upper trough. At the surface, low
pressure will be in place across eastern MT and the western Dakotas,
with a surface trough extending southward through the central High
Plains. Meanwhile, a warm front will be draped across northern ND,
while a quasi-stationary front extends northwest to southeast across
South Dakota into the MO-Valley. A moist airmass will reside along
these boundaries, and areas of moderate to strong instability are
forecast.

Most guidance depicts early day convection ongoing across parts of
MN and eastern SD. While evolution of this convection is uncertain,
it seems possible that it could persist and/or strengthen as it
shifts southwest across the Mid-MO Valley through afternoon.
Additional convection is expected to develop along the surface
trough over the High Plains, near the surface warm front, surface
low, and later in the evening across much of Montana with the
approach of the upper trough. Pockets of damaging winds and hail
will be possible. If confidence increases in areas of greater storm
coverage, higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks.

...Southern States...

A weak low is expected to develop southward across GA as a surface
front sags southward through the period. Ahead of the front, a very
moist and unstable airmass will be in place, fostering areas of
moderate to strong instability. Deep-layer flow will remain light
and vertical shear weak, limiting organized severe potential.
However, given strong instability, high PWs, frontal forcing, and
sufficient storm coverage/clustering, isolated to scattered
strong/damaging wind gusts are expected.

..Leitman.. 09/05/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 17:33:02 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 051732
SWODY2
SPC AC 051730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind gusts are likely across portions of the Southeast
Sunday afternoon and early evening. Additional areas at risk for
severe wind and hail are across parts of northern Utah northward
into Montana and east into the northern Plains and Middle Missouri
Valley.

... Synopsis ...

A high-amplitude mid-level ridge will persist across the central US
on Sunday, with troughing across both the east and west coasts.
Embedded within the basal region of the western trough, a closed low
should open up and take on a negative tilt as it moves along the
northwest periphery of the central ridge.

At the surface, an anticyclone will be located across the upper
Great Lakes, ushering in a cooler, drier air mass from the Upper
Midwest east across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Demarcating
the boundary between this continental air mass and the more maritime
air mass to the south and west will be a front stretched from the Minnesota-North/South Dakota border south and east to southeast
Missouri and then east from there to the East Coast.

... Southeast ...

A very humid air mass will be in place across the region, with HREF
mean dewpoint temperatures in the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs. Diurnal
heating will allow afternoon temperatures to warm into the
low-to-mid-90Fs, yielding MUCAPE values in excess of 1500 J/kg. (High-resolution guidance is generally in the 1500-2500 J/kg range,
with coarser-scale guidance, such as the RAP, showing perhaps as
high as 4000 J/kg.)

Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon as
convective temperatures are reached. Precipitable water values
around 2 inches and DCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg will support
heavy, water-laden downbursts capable of scattered wind damage.
Slightly better deep-layer shear across portions of Georgia and the
Carolinas may support at least transient thunderstorm organization
in the form of multi-cell clusters which may pose a slightly greater
risk of organized wind damage.

... Mid-Missouri Valley and Northern Plains ...

Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period
across portions of the area or develop shortly thereafter. These
thunderstorms will likely be driven by strong warm-air advection
near the apex of the mid-level ridge. These storms may initially
pose a risk of large hail and gusty winds. With time, diurnal
heating may support a transition from elevated-to-surface based
thunderstorms, increasing the potential for damaging winds,
especially as low-level lapse rate steepen. Deep-layer shear will
support individual storms moving southeast while the larger-scale
evolution will be toward the southwest.

The exact evolution of this convection, in particular where the
narrow corridor develops, remains a bit uncertain. As confidence
increases in the location of these storms, higher severe weather
probabilities may be needed.

... Northwest Utah into Montana ...

As the western mid-level low opens and takes on a negative tilt as
it traverses the northwest periphery of the central US ridge,
large-scale ascent will support scattered thunderstorm development
across portions of northwest Utah, Idaho, and western Wyoming.
Strong mid-level flow (around 50 knots at 500 millibars) coupled
with a deep, well-mixed boundary layer will support downward
momentum transfer within these thunderstorms capable of producing
scattered wind damage. These storms will quickly move northeast into
Montana during the evening hours. If coverage of these storms is
greater than expected, higher wind probabilities would be warranted
in subsequent outlooks.

..Marsh.. 09/05/2026

$$

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From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 05:12:04 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 060511
SWODY2
SPC AC 060510

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.

...Northern Plains to Upper Midwest...

An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward from the northern
Rockies to the northern Plains on Monday. This will break down the
upper ridge across the region, shifting it eastward toward the Great
Lakes. At this occurs, strengthening mid/upper southwesterly flow
will overspread the Plains. Southerly low-level winds will maintain
a corridor of 60s to near 70 F dewpoints ahead of a surface low
lifting northeast across the Dakotas. Warmer midlevel temperatures
may result in capping for much of the day. However, as the upper
trough approaching cooling aloft and increasing large-scale ascent
should erode inhibition by late afternoon. Vertically veering wind
profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt.
Isolated to widely scattered storms will pose a risk for large hail
and locally damaging gusts.

A south/southwest low-level jet is forecast to increase during the
evening. Though nocturnal cooling will resulting in increase
inhibition after dark, warm advection aided by the strengthening
low-level jet may result in one or more clusters of strong storms
across the eastern portions of the Dakotas/Nebraska and into MN
during the nighttime hours. It is uncertain if sufficient
instability will persist overnight to support severe convection, but
given the strength of mid/upper flow, some risk for damaging wind
gusts could persist overnight.

..Leitman.. 09/06/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 17:17:56 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 061717
SWODY2
SPC AC 061716

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.

... Synopsis ...

A mid-level shortwave trough will take on increasingly negative tilt
on Monday as it lifts north-northeast along the northwest periphery
of a central CONUS ridge. At the same time, a subtle, low-amplitude
short-wave trough currently over the Pacific Ocean off the coast of
Southern California will quickly move northeast ahead of the main
wave.

At the surface, an anticyclone over the Upper Great Lakes will
maintain south-southeasterly flow across the Plains, sustaining mid-to-upper-60Fs dewpoints across the Missouri Valley into the
Dakotas and western Minnesota. A weak low across eastern Montana
will eventually redevelop northward into the Canadian Prairies
overnight. As this happens, a cold front will move east across the
Northern Plains.

... Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest ...

The lead short-wave trough will be approaching the north-central US
at the start of the forecast period (Monday morning). As the
associated mid-level jet approaches, the low-level jet will increase
and spread northward across the Plains. On the nose of this jet,
elevated convection is likely to be ongoing in response to the
warm-air advection. Latest model guidance maintains the low-level
jet through the day and subsequently the morning convection is
likely to persist through the day as it moves northeast toward
western Minnesota. Although widespread cloud cover and moist
mid-level profiles will limit instability, the degree of the
cloud-layer shear will support at least some potential for hail with
these elevated storms.

To the southwest of the morning convection, clearing clouds will
give way to robust heating allowing surface temperatures to climb
into the upper-80Fs to mid-90Fs, with even hotter surface
temperatures across western Nebraska. This will allow strong
instability to develop by late afternoon ahead of the surface cold
front/dry line.

Isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms are possible during the
afternoon along the surface front/dryline. However, low-level
convergence along this boundary will be somewhat weak, with southerly/southwesterly flow ahead of it. At the same time,
large-scale subsidence will likely be occurring in the wake of the
morning convection. This should limit storm coverage across western
South Dakota and western Nebraska. Northwest North Dakota and
eastern Montana will be closer to the main wave as its associated
better large-scale ascent. Thus, storm coverage may be slightly
higher here during the afternoon. Isolated large hail and strong
wind gusts will be possible with any of these storms.

Overnight, the low-level jet increases in response to the main wave
approaching the area. This should result in additional elevated
thunderstorm development from northeast Nebraska into the eastern
Dakotas. This activity should continue east across Minnesota through
the overnight. Overall instability should be on the low side given
the convection from the lead shortwave, but strong cloud-layer shear
could support a hail and wind threat with the strongest elevated
convection.

..Marsh.. 09/06/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 05:16:28 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 070515
SWODY2
SPC AC 070513

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from the central
Plains into the Upper Midwest.

...Central Plains to Upper Midwest...

An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will
overspread the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valley as this occurs. Meanwhile,
a surface low over Manitoba will lift northeast through the early
Wednesday. A trailing cold front will sweep eastward across the
Upper Midwest, with the southern extent of the boundary stalling
over southern NE. Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass will be
in place, supporting pockets of weak to moderate instability.

Most forecast guidance depicts ongoing thunderstorms Tuesday morning
across parts of MN/WI within a warm advection regime. This activity
could pose a risk for hail and strong wind gusts. Early day
thunderstorms could impact airmass recovery and destabilization for afternoon/evening severe potential ahead of the advancing cold
front. If sufficient recovery occurs, another round of severe
potential could develop from southeast MN into WI and the MI Upper
Peninsula. Otherwise, severe potential will increase during the
evening with southward extent ahead of the front across IA/eastern
NE and perhaps northern KS. While vertical shear will lessen with
southward extent, initial cells will likely develop into line
segments along the front. An initial risk of hail and strong gusts
will transition to mainly a damaging wind risk as storm mode becomes
more linear.

..Leitman.. 09/07/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 17:48:16 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 071747
SWODY2
SPC AC 071746

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from the central
Plains into the Upper Midwest.

...Central Plains to Upper Midwest...
An upper-level shortwave trough currently translating through the
northern Rockies will move into the Canadian Prairies and northern
Plains on Tuesday. A secondary upper-level feature will translate
from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains through the period.
South of these features, enhanced mid-to upper-level southwesterly
flow will overspread the Mid-Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys.
At the surface, a low over Manitoba will lift northeastward into
Ontario by early Wednesday. A trailing cold front will move eastward
across the Upper Midwest while the southern extent of the boundary
is forecast to stall over southern Nebraska.

Ahead of the front, persistent southerly return flow will maintain a
moist warm-sector with weak to moderate instability ahead of the
front. Most CAM guidance depicts elevated thunderstorms Tuesday
morning across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin, near the nose of
the low-level jet. This early activity will likely pose an initial
risk for marginally severe hail and isolated strong wind gusts.

Further south, severe potential is expected to gradually increase
during the evening ahead of the front across Iowa, eastern Nebraska,
and potentially northern Kansas. Deep-layer shear will progressively
lessen with southward extent but strong convergence along the
stalling boundary should support convective initiation within the
moderately unstable boundary-layer. Initial cells will likely have a
threat for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts, but are
expected to quickly grow upscale into line segments with a greater
damaging wind threat later Tuesday evening.

..Bentley.. 09/07/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 05:15:52 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 080515
SWODY2
SPC AC 080513

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the central Plains to the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday.

...Upper Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes...

An upper trough will move from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes
and Northeast on Wednesday. Stronger deep-layer flow will be focused
across the Great Lakes and Northeast, to the north of a corridor of
modest instability. As a surface cold front develops southeast
toward the Ohio Valley and western NY during the evening, isolated
to scattered thunderstorm development is expected. While modest
instability will limit a more substantial severe risk, stronger
deep-layer flow will support sporadic strong gusts.

...Central Plains to Lower Ohio Valley...

Stronger instability is forecast within a moist and hot airmass from
KS to the Lower MO and Lower OH Valleys Wednesday afternoon and
evening. This area will remain well south of strong westerly flow
aloft associated with the Great Lake upper trough, resulting in
modest vertical shear, especial across KS. Despite modest shear,
MLCAPE around 1500-2500 amid steeper low and midlevel lapse rates
will support some risk of strong to severe convection. Storms
developing along a surface boundary will mainly pose a risk for
damaging gusts. Where marginally stronger shear will be located
across the Lower MO Valley vicinity, small hail could also occur
with the strongest updrafts.

..Leitman.. 09/08/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 17:10:42 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 081710
SWODY2
SPC AC 081708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OHIO
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the central Plains to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. A more
organized severe weather threat is expected from eastern Ohio to
western New York.

...Eastern Ohio into western New York...
A mid-level trough will move from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast
on Wednesday with moderate mid-level flow expanding along the
southern periphery of this trough. A strong surface low associated
with this trough will move across northern Ontario with a cold front
extending into the Midwest. Ahead of this front, low 70s dewpoints
are forecast to advect northward across Ohio, Pennsylvania, and
western New York. Mid-level lapse rates will be relatively weak, but
the moist environment will support moderate instability amid
moderate effective shear. A line of storms is forecast to develop
along the front from central Ohio into western New York. This
environment should support damaging winds. Some tornado threat may
exist as the low-level flow strengthens during the afternoon with
clockwise curved low-level hodographs. However, a mostly linear
storm mode should limit the overall tornado threat.

...Ohio Valley to the central Plains...
Moderate instability is forecast to develop from the central Plains
to the Ohio Valley. Across the plains, instability will be driven by
a hot, deeply mixed environment while instability farther east will
be driven by 70s dewpoints. Within this entire zone, mid-level flow
is expected to remain quite weak which will limit storm
organization. Water-loaded downbursts farther east and drier
microbursts in the mixed environment farther west will be the
primary hazard within the Marginal Risk. A zone of greater
instability from eastern Missouri into western Indiana could support
an isolated hail threat, particularly if some of this greater
instability can spread beneath stronger mid-level flow. However,
morning convection/cloudcover may be present where this most
favorable environment could develop.

..Bentley.. 09/08/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

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