ACUS11 KWNS 061719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061718
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-061915-

Mesoscale Discussion 2250
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the Carolinas into GA and far eastern TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 061718Z - 061915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The damaging-wind threat is expected to increase with time
this afternoon. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Storm clusters are ongoing early this afternoon to the
east of Charlotte, NC, and also near the TN/NC border region.
Additional cumulus development is noted across the southern
Appalachians and also into northern SC. Strong heating and weakening
MLCINH should lead to increasing storm coverage with time this
afternoon. Large PW, MLCAPE of near/above 2000 J/kg, and steepening
low-level lapse rates will result in an increasingly favorable
environment for downbursts and at least localized damaging winds
later this afternoon. Sporadic hail may also occur with the
strongest cells.

Deep-layer flow/shear will generally remain modest, though
low/midlevel northwesterlies may allow for development of one or
more south-southeastward-moving clusters, which may be accompanied
by locally greater potential for wind damage. Watch issuance is
possible for at least part of this region this afternoon.

..Dean/Gleason.. 09/06/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-uHgVyMN2bEh34k1U-tXuy5VQTAZU5BzZTMboyyw8sqkNcvHT8Du6gWETser9ufoB2wpnDgxvoWOE7ckfScZCW-3jgQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...
MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON 36278310 36258250 36228147 36058110 35518038 35327961
34997850 34477776 34127802 32857908 31468134 32428315
33498467 34028473 34758464 35758385 36278310

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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