ACUS11 KWNS 070009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070008
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-070115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2258
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0708 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Areas affected...portions of the mid-Missouri Valley

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 661...

Valid 070008Z - 070115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 661
continues.

SUMMARY...Occasionally damaging/severe wind gusts and isolated large
hail remain possible in the near-term.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered convection has developed
roughly along the Missouri River and ahead of the main, southwestward-progressing cold pool associated with more widespread
convection to the northeast. This activity is also occurring on the southwestern periphery of an instability axis and along the
northeastern edge of steeper low-level lapse rates. The environment
ahead of the approaching cold pool remains favorable for occasional damaging/severe wind gusts and isolated large hail with ongoing
convection. However, the advancing surface boundary and relatively
narrow axis of lingering instability suggest that the severe risk
may tend to be spatially confined for only another 1-2 hours, after
which the severe risk is more uncertain.

Somewhat separately, an isolated supercell remains ongoing to the
northeast of Kansas City, MO, with MRMS MESH estimates ranging up to
2". While low-level lapse rates are weaker within this region owing
to outflow from prior convection, large hail will remain possible
should this cell persist south-southeastward.

..Chalmers.. 09/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5JhaQQhGccuAUqe3BDlFr7ss-2bUyj-ukDTM-RUtFU3RkmWQY88M2YyuaLjwg5t7z_FnwVDsksd_Vh8z1J7-MPyU3zA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 40459589 39239543 38719506 38589495 38499474 38459441
38449432 38499410 38599399 38799385 39179365 39589363
39929377 40049392 40089410 40079428 40029461 40009469
40019497 40119522 40179534 40489551 40639569 40599589
40459589

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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