ACUS11 KWNS 071818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071818
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-072115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2263
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...Parts of LA and southern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 071818Z - 072115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Localized damaging winds are possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing this afternoon over parts
of the LA/MS Gulf Coasts, in the vicinity of a weak surface trough.
Other more isolated development is underway farther north across LA.
Strong heating of a very moist airmass (PW greater than 2.1 inches)
is underway, with temperatures rising into the mid/upper 90s F,
steepening low-level lapse rates, and MLCAPE increasing to
near/above 3000 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is weak, but the
thermodynamic environment is favorable for wet microbursts, which
will result in a threat for locally damaging winds as storm coverage
increases through the afternoon across a larger portion of LA and
southern MS.

..Dean/Hart.. 09/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6OxXmu82FoL8fGMtpzAn2-3OXpqUAEbl_A6rsy3Yr-On2EaQdNrnJX4PpE8KW16plB28iVAECQW3lEEnytlJC-qTykQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 29569035 30249297 30909350 31819394 31869398 32429422
32489409 32339342 32069178 31649058 31038979 30438921
30058977 29569035

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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