ACUS11 KWNS 131116
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131116
CAZ000-131315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2453
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Areas affected...Southern California Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 131116Z - 131315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Sub-severe hail and/or gusty winds may accompany the
strongest storms moving onshore through 13Z.

DISCUSSION...A notable increase in thunderstorms with some transient
supercell characteristics has been observed over the past hour,
focused along a sea-breeze boundary from just west of San Clemente
to west of San Diego. Aided by large-scale forcing for ascent
preceding a vigorous midlevel trough, the presence of a moist
boundary-layer coupled with cooling midlevel temperatures is
yielding a MUCAPE upwards of 1000 J/kg, per latest objective
analysis. Additionally, area VWPS are sampling relatively weak
low-level winds, which then strengthen with height, yielding 30-35
kt of deep-layer shear.

While severe weather is not expected, the environment appears
supportive of sub-severe hail and perhaps locally gusty winds as the
storms move onshore over the next hour or two. Activity should
weaken fairly quickly as it moves inland into a more stable
thermodynamic environment.

..Mead.. 11/13/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!70HwTFGN3Hiw2QrXoWEt-NK4wXkpXFFLWSXHfdz4Z5jgLRB7j025mn8zlJwtTad2v6gn4MxBhYnWwJZNYBzFspiekg0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX...

LAT...LON 32541718 32891740 33191751 33341772 33511799 33621824
33741834 33841832 33881805 33681772 33391740 33071718
32741704 32541699 32541718

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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--- scorpsmtpd
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