ACUS03 KWNS 291907
SWODY3
SPC AC 291906

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the central Plains
on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

Broad, upper level troughing will persist across much of the CONUS
east of the Rockies on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will be
centered near the Great Lakes, while a cold front sags southward
across portions of TX and the Gulf Coast region. Persistent, but
modest northwesterly flow aloft and adequate boundary layer moisture/instability will support scattered thunderstorms across the
Plains. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain low, but a
couple of strong storms across central/south TX could produce
locally gusty winds where stronger heating/destabilization occurs
ahead of the surface boundary.

..Leitman.. 08/29/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 300724
SWODY3
SPC AC 300723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out in the central or southern
Plains on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will become established over
the Plains and MS Valley as upper ridging remains in place across
the Interior West on Monday. Surface high pressure will be
commonplace across much of the MS Valley to the East Coast, as well
areas west of the Rockies. Rich low-level moisture will meander over
the Plains and Gulf Coast region, serving as a primary fuel source
for thunderstorms. A diffuse surface front will sag southward across
the southern Plains as weak mid-level impulses overspread the
Plains, serving as lifting mechanisms for deep-moist convection. A
couple of strong storms with sub-severe wind and hail cannot be
ruled out. However, the threat for organized severe appears too low
to warrant the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 08/30/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 301917
SWODY3
SPC AC 301916

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe potential is low Monday.

...Synopsis...
A persistent northwesterly flow regime will continue over the Plains
and MS Valley as upper ridging intensifies across the Interior West
on Monday. In the wake of upper troughing over the East, surface
high pressure is expected across much of the MS Valley to the East
Coast. Unseasonably cool surface conditions will prevail over much
of the eastern US, while robust moisture content lingers over the
central CONUS. A weak cold front will continue to meander south over
the Plains, serving as a focus for afternoon storms.

...Southern Plains...
Across the southern and central Plains, several clusters of
thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period
ahead of a diffuse cold front moving south. Cloud debris and outflow
from these clusters will likely modify the surrounding air mass
casting significant uncertainty on diurnal destabilization. Still,
some heating of a seasonably moist air mass should support modest
buoyancy by the afternoon. Reintensification of some of these
thunderstorm clusters, or additional development along outflow or
MCVs is possible. While a strong storm or two with damaging gusts
cannot be ruled out, the modest buoyancy and poor lapse rates will
likely limit convective intensity. Severe probabilities will remain
below 5%.

..Lyons.. 08/30/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 310731
SWODY3
SPC AC 310730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not anticipated on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft will continue to overspread the eastern
U.S. as upper ridging remains in place west of the Rockies. Guidance
consensus depicts a pronounced, positively-tilted mid-level trough
rapidly amplifying while quickly translating southeastward, pivoting
around the broader cyclonic flow aloft. As a result, a cold front
will begin surge southward across the northern Plains on Tuesday.
Farther to the south, rich low-level moisture will continue to
meander across the central and southern Plains into the Lower MS
Valley. Strong thunderstorms could occur along/ahead of the surface
cold front over the northern Plains, where modest tropospheric lapse
rates and vertical wind shear would support strong wind gusts.
Similarly, a couple of thunderstorms with strong wind gusts cannot
be ruled out over the Lower MS Valley, where a passing mid-level
perturbation may locally augment deep-layer shear to support
multicellular structures. Nonetheless, the anticipated coverage of
severe wind or hail appears too low for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 08/31/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 311930
SWODY3
SPC AC 311929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern
Plains, Upper Midwest, and lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday,
though severe potential is uncertain.

...Parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Within a broader northwesterly flow regime, a vigorous
mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward
from northern SK into MB on Tuesday, and approach northern ND/MN by
the end of the period. This shortwave and attendant large-scale
ascent will eventually impinge upon a zone of favorable
boundary-layer moisture and moderate instability along/ahead of a
cold front from parts of the Dakotas into MN. However, guidance
continues to vary regarding the timing of the shortwave and related mid/upper-level jet, placement of the cold front by late afternoon,
and extent to which stronger deep-layer shear overspreads the more
favorable instability.

There will be some potential for storm development along/ahead of
the front during the afternoon and evening, and also for elevated
convection behind the front. A few strong storms (both elevated and surface-based) will be possible, and severe probabilities may be
needed once confidence increases regarding the evolution of the
primary synoptic features.

...Lower MS Valley into parts of the TN Valley...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and
evening across parts of the lower MS Valley into parts of the TN
Valley, within a modest west-northwesterly flow regime. A
low-amplitude shortwave approaching the base of a deep
mid/upper-level trough covering the eastern CONUS may locally
enhance ascent and deep-layer shear, and gusty winds could accompany
the strongest storms. However, midlevel lapse rates are expected to
remain quite weak, and updrafts may not become sufficiently strong
to support an organized severe threat.

..Dean.. 08/31/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 010729
SWODY3
SPC AC 010728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible over portions of the central
Plains on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will deepen while also taken on a more neutral
tilt over the Midwest as upper ridging persists west of the Rockies
on Wednesday. The deepening mid-level trough will encourage the
continued southward progression of a surface cold front over the
central Plains into the OH Valley. Seasonal low-level moisture ahead
of the front will promote buoyancy to support thunderstorms, which
should develop with the aid of low-level frontal convergence. Since
stronger northwesterly flow aloft will begin to overspread the
pre-frontal airmass and support adequate vertical wind shear aloft,
isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
central Plains.

...Portions of the Central Plains...
By afternoon, surface temperatures should warm well into the 70s F
amid mid 60s F dewpoints, which when overspread by 7+ C/km mid-level
lapse rates, will yield over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, especially over
eastern KS. Winds will gradually veer with height, from southwest to
northwest through the boundary layer, then increase from 20 kts
around 700 mb, to about 40 kts in the 500-300 mb layer. This profile
will support modestly elongated and curved hodographs and 40-50 kts
of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms that develop ahead of
the cold front will likely be mixed modal between multicells and
supercells, capable of at least isolated severe hail and wind.
Category 1/Marginal Risk severe probabilities have been introduced,
though higher probabilities may be needed if it becomes clear that
more sustained supercells can materialize over eastern KS.

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 011926
SWODY3
SPC AC 011925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the central Great Plains
into Missouri Ozarks late Wednesday afternoon into early evening,
accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind.

...Discussion...
Tuesday into Wednesday, models indicate little change to the
amplified large-scale pattern across the mid-latitude eastern
Pacific through North America. Mid/upper troughing will be
maintained to the east of the Canadian/U.S. Rockies, reinforced by
one vigorous short wave trough forecast to continue digging
southeast of the northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest vicinity, as a
similar upstream perturbation digs southeast of the Northwest
Territories through eastern Canadian Prairies.

A surface cold front associated with the lead impulse is forecast to
continue surging southeastward through the remainder of the
Midwest/lower Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys and central Great
Plains, accompanied by notable further low-level drying. Seasonably
high moisture content will generally remain confined to a plume
across the central Gulf Basin and Florida Peninsula into
southwestern Atlantic, on the southern through southeastern
periphery of the larger-scale mid/upper troughing.

...Central Great Plains into Missouri Ozarks...
Mid/upper forcing for ascent overspreading the region, to the
southwest of the primary digging mid-level troughing/evolving low,
remains unclear due to lingering model spread. However, models
suggest that boundary-layer moisture will remain sufficient to
support moderate potential instability beneath a pre-frontal plume
of steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates.

Focusing on the southward advancing cold front, and pre-frontal
surface troughing, at least isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorm development appears possible by late Wednesday
afternoon. Beneath strengthening northwesterly mid-level flow, the
environment may become conducive to supercells and one or two small
organizing clusters with potential to produce severe hail and wind,
before convection weakens during the evening with the loss of
daytime heating.

..Kerr.. 09/01/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 020725
SWODY3
SPC AC 020724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to potentially severe gusts may accompany a band of
thunderstorms across parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow will overspread much of the central and eastern
CONUS on Thursday. Through the period, a mid-level impulse will
pivot around the broader cyclonic flow into Quebec while an even
more potent embedded mid-level trough rapidly amplifies over the
Midwest. As a result, a surface cold front will rapidly surge
eastward over the Appalachians and impinge on the East Coast, where
seasonal low-level moisture will be in place to support an extensive
band of thunderstorms. Given overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind
shear, a few storms may be strong to severe.

...Central Appalachians...
The cold front will surge to the east during the late morning into
early afternoon hours, encountering low 60s F dewpoints over the
central Appalachians. Tropospheric lapse rates should be poor,
yielding thin MLCAPE profiles in the 500-1000 J/kg range. The lack
of stronger buoyancy should limit the severe threat to a degree.
Nonetheless, strengthening and veering of the 850-500 mb flow with
height will encourage curved/elongated hodographs with 40-50 kts of
effective bulk shear. A broken squall line should develop ahead of
the cold front, perhaps with transient rotating cells, capable of
mainly damaging gusts, warranting the introduction of Category
1/Marginal risk probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 09/02/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 021928
SWODY3
SPC AC 021928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY IN A
CORRIDOR FROM THE LEE OF THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the lee of
the Allegheny Mountains into the Tennessee Valley on Thursday,
accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts.

...Discussion...
Models suggest that amplified large-scale mid-level troughing to the
east of the Canadian/U.S. Rockies may continue to gradually
consolidate during this period, becoming centered around a notable
deepening and occluding cyclone across northern Ontario, to the west
of James Bay. Around the southwestern periphery of this feature, a
significant trailing short wave perturbation is forecast to dig
across the northern U.S. Great Plains and Midwest through lower
Great Lakes region, accompanied by a secondary surface cyclone and
reinforcing cold intrusion from the lee of the northern Rockies
through much of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley
by daybreak Friday. It appears that the occluding preceding front
will progress east/southeast of the lower Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley, before stalling and weakening, while seasonably high
moisture content remains confined to a remnant preceding boundary
across the southwestern Atlantic into southern Florida/southeastern
Gulf Basin.

...Northern Mid Atlantic into Tennessee Valley...
Aided by modestly steepening lower tropospheric lapse rates, it
appears that residual boundary-layer moisture may become supportive
of weak to modest destabilization, within at least a narrow
pre-frontal corridor across the region during the day Thursday.
This may include CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg, in the presence
of strengthening, but still modest, cyclonic west-southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric flow, including 20-40+ kt in the 850-500 mb
layer. It is possible that this environment may become conducive to
at least widely scattered strong thunderstorm development capable of
producing a few strong to potentially damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 09/02/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 030728
SWODY3
SPC AC 030727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across much of the West, the southern
Rockies, Florida, and along and near a frontal boundary from New
England into the southern Plains. Widespread organized severe
weather is not anticipated.

... Discussion ...

The amplified midlevel pattern of the previous few days will persist
through Friday/Day-3 across North America, with a western Canada
ridge and a continental-scale trough across eastern Canada and the
eastern US. Within the eastern trough, a seasonably strong closed
low over Ontario should begin to fill by late in the forecast
period. As this is occurring, multiple shortwave troughs traversing
the larger scale flow field will rotate around the Ontario low.

The strongest of these shortwave troughs will have moved south
through Canada the day before and should be located in the vicinity
of the Lower Great Lakes at the start of the forecast period. In
response to this shortwave trough, strong northerly low-to-mid-level
flow across the Plains overnight Thursday into Friday will help
tighten the low-level thermal gradient across the Plains. This front
will slowly move south through Friday into Friday night.

A modest surface low is expected to develop across southwest
Oklahoma or northwest Texas, along the surface front, by Friday
morning. This surface low should slowly sag south through the day
with the front. Despite moving south, away from Oklahoma, the flow
around this surface low will still be able to draw Gulf moisture
northward into Oklahoma and Arkansas. As this increasing low-level
moisture converges along the front, diurnal heating of this
moistening airmass will yield most-unstable CAPE values perhaps in
excess of 3000 J/kg along and south of the surface front.

Despite the strong instability and strong thermal gradient, the slow
moving nature of the front will tend to favor anafrontal
circulations. This appears to be borne out in the latest operational
guidance suite with precipitation being favored on the cold side of
the thermal gradient. This would tend to limit the overall risk of
severe weather. However, given the degree of instability and the
presence of a strong cold front, the risk of warm-sector convection
remains. If confidence in warm-sector convection occurring
increases, severe probabilities may be warranted across portions of
eastern Oklahoma east through Arkansas into western Tennessee and
northern Mississippi.

..Marsh.. 09/03/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 031931
SWODY3
SPC AC 031930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple strong thunderstorms will be possible from the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the southern Plains and across parts of
Oregon on Friday, though the potential for organized severe storms
appears low.

...Discussion...
A broad midlevel trough centered on the Great Lakes region will
shift slightly eastward through the period, as a midlevel speed
maximum advances east-northeastward from the Great Lakes into
Quebec. A related surface low will track northeastward from Ontario
into Quebec, while a cold front extents southwestward across the OH
Valley to a separate surface low in the southern Great Plains. Given
a slow east-southeastward motion of the front and large-scale
forcing for ascent lagging behind, thunderstorms may tend to be
anafrontal. However, if any thunderstorms can develop
along/immediately ahead of the front from the OH/TN Valleys into the
southern Plains, ample moisture/buoyancy and around 30 kt of
midlevel west-southwesterly flow would conditionally support a
couple strong/loosely organized storms.

Farther west, a midlevel trough will approach the Pacific Northwest
through the period. Related forcing for ascent will promote
scattered thunderstorms across OR. Moderately enhanced midlevel flow
and steep deep-layer lapse rates may promote a couple strong storms
capable of producing locally strong wind gusts.

..Weinman.. 09/03/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 040716
SWODY3
SPC AC 040715

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms are expected from northern North Carolina into
southern Pennsylvania on Saturday. The strongest storms may pose a
threat for damaging winds.

... Discussion ...

A surface cold front will slowly move east across the eastern US on
Saturday. Along and ahead of this front, surface temperatures should
warm into the upper-80Fs to low-90Fs from the Mid-Atlantic region
southward into the Carolinas, with surface dewpoint temperatures in
the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs. As a result a corridor of instability
perhaps as great as 2000 J/kg will develop from North Carolina
northward into the Mid-Atlantic area.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop during the
afternoon along the slow moving front across the Carolinas into the
Mid Atlantic. Despite deep layer shear on the order of 40 knots and
2000 J/kg CAPE, poor mid-level lapse rates and precipitable water
values around 1.75 inches should limit the overall severe threat to
the potential for isolated damaging thunderstorm winds.

..Marsh.. 09/04/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 041930
SWODY3
SPC AC 041929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind
gusts across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on
Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A broad/amplified mid/upper-level trough encompassing much of the
eastern CONUS will shift slightly eastward through the forecast
period, while an accompanying strong upper-level jet advances
northeastward across Quebec. In the low-levels, a related
north-south-oriented cold front will move eastward across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon.

...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic...
Ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, diurnal heating/
destabilization of a moist boundary layer (middle/upper 60s to lower
70s dewpoints) will contribute to a corridor of moderate
surface-based buoyancy (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) from the Mid-Atlantic
into the Northeast -- despite poor midlevel lapse rates. Diurnal
heating and related buoyancy may be limited with northward extent
owing to increased cloud coverage near the right-entrance region of
the upper-level jet. As the front intercepts the
destabilizing/uncapped pre-convective air mass, widely scattered
thunderstorms should develop along/immediately ahead of the front
during the afternoon. Around 35-45 kt of front-parallel effective
shear will support a mix of loosely organized convective bands and
clusters. Given the enhanced deep-layer unidirectional flow and
steepening low-level lapse rates, damaging wind gusts will be
possible with the stronger storms into the evening. Depending on the
degree of destabilization over parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the
Northeast, an eventual upgrade may be warranted.

..Weinman.. 09/04/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050728
SWODY3
SPC AC 050727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for severe weather appears low on Sunday.

...Carolinas...
With the Northeast trough eventually moving offshore by early Sunday
morning, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward on
Sunday. Some remaining, modestly strong mid-level flow will reside
on the southern flank of the trough within parts of the Carolinas.
The timing of the front will be key to whether severe potential
exists. The ECMWF is the only guidance showing convection occurring
onshore. Uncertainty remains too high for severe probabilities.

...Parts of eastern Colorado into the Raton Mesa...
Minor mid-level flow enhancement within the upper-level ridge will
exist across parts of the central/southern Rockies. Modest westerly/northwesterly flow aloft and weak southeasterly surface
winds near the lee trough could allow for storm organization.
However, questions remain whether capping will fully erode in the
High Plains. If activity can move off of the terrain, it may remain
elevated. While a stronger storm or two could occur, confidence in a
more organized severe threat remains limited.

..Wendt.. 09/05/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 051950
SWODY3
SPC AC 051949

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for severe weather appears low on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will affect the Great Lakes to Northeast
region, while an upper ridge gradually weakens over the Rockies.
High pressure will bring cooler and stable conditions to much of the
central and eastern CONUS, as the leading cold front moves into
coastal Southeast and toward the northern Gulf. As such, instability
for thunderstorms will be limited in area.

Afternoon storms do appear likely over the eastern Carolinas during
the afternoon as the front lingers. Shear will be weak but a few
stronger storms capable of locally gusty winds may occur.

To the west, the stalled portion of the front over central TX may
yield areas of rain and thunderstorms, but severe appears unlikely.

Otherwise, a few nocturnal storms are expected over the central High
Plains Sunday night, as southerly winds in the low-levels support a
narrow ribbon of moisture/instability. While low-end hail cannot be
ruled out, overall potential remains low at this time frame.

..Jewell.. 09/05/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060734
SWODY3
SPC AC 060733

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain
low.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will shift eastward at the beginning of the
week. An upper-level trough will approach the West Coast. At the
surface, a high pressure system will remain in much of the CONUS
east of the Missouri River. With the approach of the western trough,
some modest mid-level flow enhancement will promote stronger lee
troughing in the High Plains. A very subtle, weak shortwave trough
is currently forecast to be in the central Plains early Monday and
move eastward.

...Parts of southern/central Plains...
With moisture return continuing on the western flank of the surface
high, there is some potential for storm development along the lee
trough. Potential will likely be highest in these areas as they have
the more favorable overlap of stronger surface heating and low-level
moisture. Mid-level northwesterly winds will not be overly strong,
but around 25-30 kts of effective shear can be expected. However,
large scale ascent will be weak. Furthermore, most guidance show
somewhat mild temperatures and at least some remaining MLCIN even
during the afternoon. If a storm were to form, it could be strong to
severe, but confidence in initiation remains rather low.

..Wendt.. 09/06/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061906
SWODY3
SPC AC 061905

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain
low.

...Southern High Plains to Upper Midwest...

West to northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central
U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough
oriented from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. A couple of
embedded shortwave impulses will migrate through the
west/northwesterly flow regime across the central/northern Plains to
the Upper Midwest. At the surface, modest surface low development
over the Dakotas and a surface trough oriented from the Upper MS
Valley into the southern High Plains, will result in modest
southerly return flow. This will transport low to mid 60s F
dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor from western TX
into western portions of the central Plains and northeast into the
eastern Dakotas and MN.

Vertically veering winds will support marginal supercell wind
profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and
elongated hodographs. However, convective coverage is uncertain.
With southward extent into the central/southern Plains vicinity,
forcing will be weak. Potential early-day clouds and remnant
convection from the Day 2 period over parts of KS may limit
thunderstorm potential during the afternoon depending on airmass
recovery and potential outflow. Further north toward MN, vertical
shear will be stronger and forcing for ascent may be stronger as a
shortwave impulse drops southeast from the Canadian Prairies.
However, forecast soundings indicate a warm layer/capping between
850-700 mb. Isolated thunderstorms (some strong) could develop
anywhere along the surface trough given modest shear and 1000-2000
J/kg MLCAPE, and severe probabilities could be needed at some point.
However, concerns over storm coverage, capping and possible
influences from prior convection preclude probabilities at this
time.

..Leitman.. 09/06/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070730
SWODY3
SPC AC 070729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms are possible over the central Plains and Upper
Midwest Tuesday, but overall severe potential is low.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough across the Pacific Northwest is forecast to
intensify as it shifts eastward, impinging on the western flank of a
shortwave ridge centered over the Rockies. To the east, persistent
troughing should remain in place, with surface high pressure
dominating the eastern half of the country. As southwesterly flow
aloft increases over the western US and central Rockies, a subtle
shortwave trough/vort max will pass over the crest of the ridge and
into the Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening. This should aid in
strengthening a lee trough over the High Plains, potentially serving
as a focus for isolated thunderstorm development.

...Central High Plains..
Continued low-level southerly flow will advect richer surface
moisture northwestward across the High Plains beginning early
Tuesday. As dewpoints increase into the low to mid 60s F, strong
heating should support robust destabilization along and east of the
lee trough. 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE will develop beneath
substantial capping as mid-level heights will likely remain neutral
through much of the day. Eventually, weak ascent from the embedded
shortwave trough and low-level upslope flow may allow for isolated
storm development along the lee trough over the central High Plains. Northwesterly flow aloft will be marginally supportive of organized
storms, including the potential for supercells. However, given the
capping and weak ascent, considerable uncertainty remains regarding
storm coverage and severity. While sporadic hail and severe gusts
cannot be ruled out, confidence remains too low for severe
probabilities at this time.

...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
A diffuse front will stall across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest
early Tuesday beneath the western extension of the broad eastern US
trough. Weak low-level warm air advection may support scattered
showers and thunderstorms through much of Tuesday near the front.
These parcels are likely to be elevated along and north of the front
with modest buoyancy and vertical shear expected to limit overall
severe potential. Still, a few stronger storms with sporadic hail
potential may evolve, though confidence in a sustained severe risk
is low.

..Lyons.. 09/07/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 071909
SWODY3
SPC AC 071908

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms are possible over the central Plains and Upper
Midwest Tuesday, but overall severe potential is low.

...Central/Southern High Plains...

Upper ridging will build east into the High Plains on Tuesday. At
the surface, a lee trough will extend southward from western NE into
the TX Panhandle during the afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will
maintain 60s F dewpoints beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse
rates. As a result, MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg will be common.
However, forecast guidance suggests at least weak capping may
persist across much of the narrow warm/moist sector, leading to
uncertainty in storm development/coverage. Nevertheless, if storms
can initiate and persist, supercell wind profiles will support
convection capable of large hail and strong gusts from
western/central NE into western KS, and the OK/TX Panhandle
vicinity. Uncertainty remains too high to delineate an area at this
time, but probabilities could become necessary in subsequent
outlooks.

...Upper Midwest...

A stalled surface boundary will extend from eastern SD into
central/northern MN and the upper Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday.
Warm advection atop the boundary in a modestly sheared and weakly
unstable environment will support periods of showers and
thunderstorms through much of Tuesday. Overall severe potential is
expected to remain low as convection should remain to the cool side
of the boundary and be elevated, but a stronger storm or two could
produce small hail or locally gusty winds.

..Leitman.. 09/07/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080730
SWODY3
SPC AC 080729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Mon Sep 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
Northwest, Northern Rockies and High Plains Wednesday. A stronger
storm or two is possible, but severe potential is low.

...Synopsis...
The broad upper low over the western US is forecast to deepen slowly
as shortwave ridging to the east also intensifies. Between the
trough and the ridge, a 50+ kt mid-level jet streak and vort max are
forecast to lift northward across the Great Basin into the northern
Rockies. Ascent from the approaching jet will overspread a weak lee
trough, eventually resulting in surface cyclogenesis over portions
of central and western MT. The deepening low will draw modest
moisture westward across parts of MT, WY and the western Dakotas,
potentially supporting isolated thunderstorms, while scattered
storms are more likely over parts of the Great Basin and northern
Rockies.

...Northern and central High Plains...
As the lee low deepens over central MT, low-level moisture will
begin to move west along the trailing surface trough. Robust heating
is expected over much of the High Plains owing to clear skies
beneath the pronounced mid-level ridging. Weak ascent from the
approaching vort max/jet should aid in gradual destabilization
through the afternoon, though some capping is likely to be in place
along the narrow warm/moist sector. This should limit diurnal
thunderstorm development across much of the High Plains. Still, some
potential for isolated storm development exists across the Black
Hills or along the lee trough into eastern WY. Sporadic severe gusts
would be the main hazard should sustained deep convection develop
given steep low and mid-level lapse rates. Confidence in storm
development remains too low for severe probabilities at this time
given the limited synoptic ascent.

...Northwest and northern Rockies...
Closer to the center of the upper low across eastern WA/OR, northern
ID and western MT, scattered thunderstorms are likely Wednesday as
ascent from the approaching mid-level jet intensifies. Cooler
mid-level temperatures will overspread modest low-level moisture
(40s F dewpoints) supporting weak destabilization through the day.
Some gusty thunderstorm winds are possible owing to fairly steep
low-level lapse rates, and scattered storm coverage. However,
largely meridional flow aloft, remnant cloud cover, and MLCAPE
generally less than 500 J/kg suggest organized severe potential
should remain quite limited.

..Lyons.. 09/08/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 081914
SWODY3
SPC AC 081913

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Mon Sep 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
Northwest, Northern Rockies and High Plains Wednesday. A stronger
storm or two is possible, but severe potential is low.

...Synopsis...
Long-wave troughing will deepen across the western US on Wednesday,
with heights increasing in the central US ridge. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will move across the Great Basin into
Wyoming and Montana through the period. Widely scattered
thunderstorm development is expected across the Pacific Northwest
into the northern Rockies and central/northern Plains. Additional
thunderstorms will be possible along the Gulf Coast.

...Northern and Central High Plains...
As southwesterly flow overspreads the northern Rockies, a surface
low is progged to develop across eastern Montana. Moisture transport
will increase with mass response with dew points in the low to mid
60s spreading across the Dakotas into eastern Montana. Owing to the strengthening ridge, mostly sunny skies are progged across much of
the central/high plains. This should promote strong daytime heating
and moderate instability across portions of Nebraska into the
Dakotas. As strong MLCIN will also be over the region, it is
uncertain how many thunderstorms will develop given relatively weak
forcing. Gradual cooling from the advancing mid-level trough should
aid in erosion of MLCIN through time, with at least isolated
thunderstorms capable of strong to severe wind possible across the
Black Hills or along the lee trough into eastern WY. For now, this
threat remains too uncertain to include probabilities.

...Northwest and Northern Rockies...
The western trough will support widely scattered thunderstorm
development across much of the Pacific Northwest into the northern
Rockies. Modest moisture and sufficient deep layer shear amid steep
low to mid-level lapse rates may support some instances of strong to
severe wind. However, largely meridional flow aloft, remnant cloud
cover, and MLCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg suggest organized
severe potential should remain limited.

..Thornton.. 09/08/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 090732
SWODY3
SPC AC 090730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across Montana and the Dakotas,
as well as the southern High Plains and Intermountain West Thursday. Uncertainty on storm coverage/intensity remains high.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper low over the Great Basin is forecast to slowly drift
eastward Thursday with several smaller shortwaves passing through
it. An embedded perturbation along the eastern flank of the low will
accompany a mid-level jet over portions of the northern Rockies and
Plains. This will help deepen a lee cyclone and trailing lee trough
much of the High Plains.

...Montana and western Dakotas...
As the upper low gradually edges closer, an embedded shortwave
trough and mid-level jet will pass over the northern Rockies and
Plains Thursday afternoon. The surface low over central MT should
deepen, increasing low-level southeasterly flow. A warm front,
extending southeastward from the surface low, will gradually lift
northward with 60+ F dewpoints in its wake over the northern High
Plains. Modest low-level convergence along the trailing lee trough
and near a weak cold front emanating from the low could support
isolated storms over eastern MT and the western Dakotas. With
sufficient buoyancy and increasing flow aloft from the upper jet,
some potential for organized multicells or transient supercells is
apparent. However, model solutions vary considerable on the degree
of capping and resulting storm development. Given these
uncertainties, no severe probabilities will be added currently,
though some risk for severe gusts and hail could be needed in future
updates.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
Farther south, the lee trough may serve as a focus for isolated
storm development Thursday afternoon amidst strong heating and
increasing low-level moisture over the central and southern High
Plains. However, forcing for ascent beneath the shortwave ridge
appears weak as the main trough and shortwave are likely to remain
over the Rockies and Four Corners where low-level moisture is
modest. While isolated high-based storms could develop and pose a
risk for locally gusty winds, confidence in a broader severe risk is
low.

..Lyons.. 09/09/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 091854
SWODY3
SPC AC 091853

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND EASTERN MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across Montana
and the Dakotas on Thursday. Additional isolated storms are possible
across the southern High Plains and Intermountain West.

...Discussion...
Persistent southwesterly flow across the Rockies will maintain
persistent lee troughing across the central/northern High Plains.
East of this lee trough, a large reservoir of low to mid 60s
dewpoints will be present across the Plains which will lead to
moderate instability from Kansas to the Canadian border. Isolated
thunderstorms may be possible by Thursday afternoon as inhibition
erodes along this trough axis. Organized thunderstorms will be most
likely from southwest South Dakota to western North Dakota/eastern
Montana where stronger mid-level flow and weak height falls will be
present. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and somewhat dry
low-levels will support the potential for large hail some severe
wind gust threat.

Overall, weak forcing may keep storm coverage isolated. However, if
greater storm coverage occurs, a hail driven Slight Risk may be
warranted given at least marginal supercell wind profiles across the
region.

..Bentley.. 09/09/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 100735
SWODY3
SPC AC 100734

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated storms are possible over parts of the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest with additional storms possible over the Rockies and
Great Basin Friday. Severe potential is uncertain.

...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
Shortwave ridging over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest is
forecast to shift eastward Friday as weak troughing emerges from the
Rockies. A modest increase in mid-level southwesterly flow will
impinge upon rich low-level moisture near a weakening surface low
and stalled warm front across the Dakotas and western MN. Low-level
convergence near the low/front may serve as a focus for isolated
thunderstorm development Friday afternoon and evening. Moderate
MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and steepening mid-level lapse rates could
support a few stronger storms. Some enhancement of the mid-level
flow may allow for a few storms to organize with some clustering and
isolated strong outflow gusts. The primary uncertainty remains storm
coverage with most guidance showing only sporadic convection through
much of the day. An increase in convective coverage is possible
overnight and into early Saturday as a 35-40 kt southerly low-level
jet develops across the central Plains, bolstering low-level warm
advection. Should this occur, one or more clusters of thunderstorms
could propagate eastward along the warm front, potentially posing a
risk for severe gusts. However, this is highly uncertain and with
substantial model differences evident, no severe probabilities will
be introduced.

...Intermountain West...
Monsoon moisture is expected to linger over portions of the eastern
Great Basin and central Rockies Friday ahead of a broad upper low. A
shortwave trough within the southwesterly flow aloft will overspread
the region near peak heating. The increase in ascent will support
scattered thunderstorms over portions of the Intermountain West
Friday afternoon and evening. While buoyancy will not be overly
large (~500 J/kg of MLCAPE) and some remnant cloud cover/convection
could overturn the air mass, increasingly strong southwesterly flow
aloft could support a few stronger thunderstorms/clusters. With a
fairly dry air mass in place, stronger downdrafts could be capable
of isolated gusty winds given steep low-level lapse rates.

..Lyons.. 09/10/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 101838
SWODY3
SPC AC 101837

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms capable of isolated large hail and
severe wind gusts are possible across the Four Corners region on
Friday. Additional storms are possible over the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest Friday morning and Friday night.

...Synopsis...
On Friday, a strong trough will begin across the Intermountain West
with a trough across the Plains and a trough along the East Coast.
The pattern will shift slowly east through the day. At the surface,
expansive high pressure will lead to fair weather across much of the
eastern CONUS with a weak lee cyclone in the central/northern
Plains.

...Four Corners Region...
Residual moisture within the Southwest and central Rockies will
result in 500 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early Friday afternoon across
portions of the Southwest and into southeast Utah and western
Colorado. This instability, combined with weak height falls and
terrain circulations will result in widespread thunderstorm activity
Friday afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow (40 to 45 knots) will
result in sufficient speed shear for some organized storm potential.
While instability will be overall weak, pockets of greater
instability/stronger storms may result in a few isolated supercells
with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts.

...Northern Plains...
A cluster of storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across the eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota. If this occurs, some
marginal wind/hail threat could exist during the morning before the
low-level jet weakens. However, there is considerable uncertainty at
this time whether ongoing convection will be in place Friday
morning.

Additional storm coverage uncertainty exists Friday night. Most
guidance is fairly consistently showing a 40 to 50 knot low-level
jet across the central Plains. Moderate instability will exist
across southern South Dakota and if isentropic ascent can reach this
far north, some elevated strong to isolated severe storms may be
possible Friday night. However, at this time there is considerable
uncertainty whether this frontal zone and the low-level jet will
overlap. In addition, the low-level jet remains mostly veered Friday
night which will result in relatively weak isentropic ascent.
Therefore, a conditional elevated hail threat may exist across South
Dakota Friday night, but storm coverage remains too uncertain at
this time for probabilities.

..Bentley.. 09/10/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 110731
SWODY3
SPC AC 110730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms, capable of strong wind gusts, are possible
over parts of the southern and central High Plains Saturday.
Scattered to numerous storms are also possible over the northern
Plains and Midwest, though confidence in severe potential is lower
here.

..Central and southern High Plains...
A cold front associated with a broad upper trough ejecting over the
central US is forecast to move east over the central/southern High
Plains Saturday. Southerly low-level flow is expected ahead of the
front, supporting weak moisture advection. Showers/storms and
remnant cloud cover are likely early in the day which could impact
later destabilization. Still, most guidance shows a loose band of
storms developing by early afternoon along the front within stronger southwesterly flow aloft favorable for marginally organized
lines/clusters. Some heating ahead of these storms is expected to
modestly steepen low-level lapse rates, which could support isolated
severe gusts with the strongest storms Saturday afternoon and
evening.

...Northern Plains...
The broad upper trough will slowly move eastward over the Plains as
shortwave ridging builds over the upper Midwest. East of the trough,
a weak surface low and stalled front will persist over the Dakotas
while a weak cold front moves eastward out of the Rockies. Scattered
storms are likely to be ongoing near the surface low across the
Dakotas early Saturday. Some isolated gusty winds or hail are
possible near the cold front/low if sufficient destabilization can
occur at the surface. However, there remains significant uncertainty
in this occurring given the potential for widespread convection.

...Midwest and Great Lakes...
A second upper trough will move out of southern Canada over the
eastern Great Lakes and northeast States east of the ridge.
Northerly flow aloft will be modestly enhanced with the passage of
the trough. Some thunderstorms are possible along the western flank
of the trough near a stalled front across the western Great Lakes
and Midwest. Moderate buoyancy across southern MN/WI into northern
IL/IA could support a few stronger storms during the afternoon,
though the modest flow aloft is unlikely to support much
organization or severe potential.

..Lyons.. 09/11/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 111930
SWODY3
SPC AC 111929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and
central High Plains and northern Plains Saturday. Scattered to
numerous storms are also possible over the Midwest, though
confidence in severe potential is lower here.

...Synopsis...
A large, negatively-tilted trough will shift east across the Rockies
on Saturday with a weak lee cyclone across the northern Plains. A
dry, continental airmass will be in place across the eastern CONUS
where high pressure will be in place.

...Southern/central High Plains...
Low-level moisture advection across the High Plains, combined with
cooling temperatures aloft will lead to some destabilization across
eastern New Mexico and into the central High Plains Saturday
afternoon. Overall heating/instability will likely be somewhat muted
by cloudcover ahead of the upper-level trough. Nonetheless, as the
cold front advances east of the terrain and interacts with weak to
potentially moderate instability, stronger updrafts may develop.
Around 40 knots of mid-level flow will result in moderate
instability and the potential for some storm organization. Overall
expect limited instability to keep the threat limited/isolated.

...Northern Plains...
Guidance consistently shows moisture wrapping around the northern
portion of a cyclone across South Dakota Saturday morning, this
moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft and isentropic
ascent may result in a few elevated thunderstorms capable of large
hail on Saturday morning. Additional storms may develop north of the
surface low as temperatures cool aloft and some surface-based
instability develops in the wake of morning storms. This environment
may also support a few strong storms capable of isolated damaging
winds/large hail.

..Bentley.. 09/11/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 120731
SWODY3
SPC AC 120730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible in the parts of the northern
and central Plains on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough, initially within the central High Plains,
will pivot northeastward into the central/northern Plains on Sunday.
A surface low is forecast within the Dakotas with a weaker trough
extending into the southern High Plains.

...Northern/central Plains...
A surface low is expected to be in the northern Plains. This, along
with a surface trough extending to the south and a warm front across
the Upper Midwest, should provide some focus for storm development
during the afternoon. Given the orientation of the upper trough,
hodographs will tend to have some veer-back characteristics in the
mid/upper levels. Even so, enough vertical shear should exist to
promote organized storms. Cloud cover may hinder surface heating,
more so to the north. Temperatures near -10 C at 500 mb will allow
for 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE with perhaps near 2000 J/kg in
Nebraska/Kansas. The highest confidence in storm initiation is
within parts of the central/eastern Dakotas where the greater
low/mid-level forcing will be. Forcing becomes less certain with
southern extent. Large hail and severe gusts are the main hazards.

...Southern High Plains...
A more conditional severe threat exists in this area. Model guidance
is not consistent with regard to how fast the trough will eject into
the Plains and pivot northeast. In either case, the surface
trough/convergence will be weak. The slower ECMWF solution would
suggest greater potential for initiation even though there still
will be slight mid-level height rises during the afternoon/evening.
Sufficient mid-level flow across the southern Rockies could promote
organized storms, but confidence in initiation/coverage is much too
low for probabilities.

..Wendt.. 09/12/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 121829
SWODY3
SPC AC 121828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and
central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across
the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing
differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with
the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF
depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time.
A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an
extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High
Plains.

...Central/Northern Plains...
Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm
sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep
instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains.
Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization
with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time,
relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts
questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday
afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large
hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat
remains unclear.

...Southern High Plains...
Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low
60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating.
Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a
limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within
the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm
development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM
guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk
has been added to address this severe weather potential.

..Bentley.. 09/12/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 130701
SWODY3
SPC AC 130700

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on
Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A pair of upper troughs/lows should be in place over the northern
Rockies and northern Plains Monday morning. The lead wave is
forecast to advance northward from the Dakotas and MN into central
Canada through the day, while the trailing low gradually opens and
weakens as it moves slowly eastward over the northern Rockies/High
Plains. A weak surface low should develop northward from ND into
Manitoba by Monday evening, with a weak front extending southward
from this low across parts of the northern/central Plains. Organized
severe thunderstorm potential is currently expected to remain fairly
limited, with modestly enhanced but meridional/southerly
mid/upper-level flow across MN limiting deep-layer shear over the
moderately unstable warm sector. Better large-scale ascent is also
forecast to gradually shift northward into central Canada through
the day as well. Given these potential limiting factors, low severe probabilities have not been included across northern MN and vicinity
at this time.

Elsewhere, general thunderstorms should occur beneath the upper low
across the northern Rockies/High Plains, but both instability and
deep-layer shear are forecast to remain weak across these regions.
Isolated convection may also develop Monday afternoon and evening
with southward extent along a surface lee trough across the
southern/central Plains, but weak forcing aloft should tend to limit
overall coverage. Other convection may also occur along a low-level
moist axis extending from parts of the Ozarks/Mid-South northward
into the Upper Midwest.

..Gleason.. 09/13/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 131923
SWODY3
SPC AC 131923

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on
Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
The severe threat will remain low on Monday across the CONUS. A pair
of weakening upper lows will shift northward across the Northern
Rockies into Canada with westerly flow across the Plains and a
building high across the eastern US. A weak surface low should
develop northward from ND into Manitoba by Monday evening, with a
weak front extending southward from this low across parts of the northern/central Plains. While widely scattered thunderstorm
development is expected across the central/northern Plains across a
moderately unstable warm sector, shear will be displaced to the
north with the upper-level flow which should limit any organized
severe threat.

Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are also expected to develop across
the southern High Plains near the surface trough. Forcing and shear
for organization will also be negligible in this region. Widespread thunderstorms are also expected near the upper-lows across the
northern Rockies. Weaker instability and weak shear in this region
will keep severe potential low.

..Thornton.. 09/13/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 140651
SWODY3
SPC AC 140650

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday
across portions of the central Plains.

...Central Plains...

A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough is forecast to develop
eastward from MT/WY into the northern/central Plains on Tuesday.
Deep-layer flow is expected to remain modest, though 30-40 kt of
southwesterly flow is forecast at 500 mb ahead of the trough across
the NE vicinity. At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to
develop southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. A
seasonally moist airmass, with dewpoints from the upper 50s to mid
60s F will be in place ahead of the front, supporting moderate
instability from NE/KS into MN/WI.

Stronger forcing for ascent may not occur until after peak heating
as the trough ejects slowly east. Additionally, forecast soundings
indicate weak capping may persist near the surface boundary. If
storms do develop prior to 00z, deep-layer flow parallel to the
surface boundary may result in storms becoming undercut by the
front. Nevertheless, where favorable/sufficient effective shear
magnitudes overlap with stronger instability/steep midlevel lapse
rates, a few stronger storms could develop. This may be most likely
across parts of NE and vicinity where the cold front intersects a
weak low/surface trough, increasing low-level convergence along the
boundary. Even if storms are somewhat elevated, isolated hail and
gusty winds would be possible. While timing and coverage remain
uncertain, the overall parameter space suggests a couple of
marginally severe storms will be possible.

..Leitman.. 09/14/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 141931
SWODY3
SPC AC 141930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday
across portions of the central Plains.

...Central Plains...
A positively-tilted trough will move eastward through the northern
Great Basin and eventually reach the central High Plains by
Wednesday morning. A weak surface trough and cold front are forecast
to be positioned within the northern Plains stretching southwestward
into the central High Plains. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front
will be in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s F. Surface heating should
allow moderate buoyancy to develop from Kansas into
Minnesota/Wisconsin during the afternoon. With the trough generally
expected to arrive later in the period. Forcing for ascent will not
be well-timed with diurnal heating. That being said, forecast
soundings do indicate minimal inhibition during the afternoon.
Should storms develop, there would be some potential for damaging
winds to occur. The ECMWF as well as available CAMs are more
supportive of this scenario than the NAM/GFS. Shear will not be
overly strong and it will be parallel to the cold front. However it
should be sufficient for a few marginally severe storms. The
probabilities were shifted slightly northwestward to account for
recent trends in guidance.

...North Carolina/Virginia Tidewaters...
A coastal low will continue to drift northward on Tuesday. Low-level
shear will be enhanced near and just to the north of the circulation
center. Whether sufficient buoyancy can develop inland remains a
question given precipitation and cloud cover. The likelihood of a
stronger storm moving onshore remains too low for probabilities.

..Wendt.. 09/14/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 150648
SWODY3
SPC AC 150647

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough over the northern/central
High Plains Wednesday morning will meander eastward as a pair of
upper lows develop in the vicinity of NE and eastern MT. Deep-layer
flow is expected to remain weak over the Plains, limiting vertical
shear. However, upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of a
weakening/stalled surface front will remain over eastern portions of
the Great Plains into the Mid-MO Valley. This will support pockets
of weak to moderate destabilization where stronger heating occurs.
Morning clouds and ongoing showers/thunderstorms could be in place
across portions of the Plains Wednesday morning, resulting in
uncertainty in where better destabilization may occur. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms appear likely across parts of OK/KS
northward through the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. However, nebulous
forcing and weak shear are likely to limit severe potential.

..Leitman.. 09/15/2025

$$

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