ACUS11 KWNS 141741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141741=20
NDZ000-SDZ000-141915-

Mesoscale Discussion 2072
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Areas affected...portions of north-central South Dakota and central
North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 141741Z - 141915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential to increase through the afternoon with
potential for damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Appreciable mid-level cloud cover is noted on visible
satellite across much of central ND/SD, with convection ongoing near
the border in the vicinity of the lifting warm front. Nonetheless,
this ongoing convection has showed an uptick in intensity likely
owing to some daytime heating and proximity to the nose of a
low-level jet axis across the central/northern High Plains. To the
east, the cloud deck becomes more broken, with temperatures heating
up into the upper 70s to 80s.=20

A more conditional mesoscale corridor of tornado risk may emerge
along the lifting warm front as the low-level jet continues to
increase this afternoon. In this vicinity, more low-level SRH rich
air in the vicinity of the warm front may support supercells. It
remains somewhat uncertain that storm mode will remain favorable or
transition to mixed mode with more multi-cell clusters. Should this
occur, the threat for damaging wind may emerge through time. Some
instances of large hail will also be possible with any initial
supercells that can maintain.=20

A watch will likely be needed to cover this threat over the next
couple of hours.

..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/14/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-agezLIh9mLjkqJEmr0ianWtLHAPFWas4L2iFAYhFZwYanaCNNsO1dYHP-IgOpUGzWdNITte6= RwRh17wBZkrt6ZDrAg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 45830039 46290064 46890083 47910082 48370070 48699978
48529852 48029805 47429792 47109789 46179822 45329931
45259994 45830039=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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