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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2074

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Sep 14 19:01:08 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 141901
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141900=20
    IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-142100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2074
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0200 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

    Areas affected...portions of northern Kansas and
    southern...central...and eastern Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 141900Z - 142100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop/intensify this
    afternoon. The strongest storms will pose a risk for hail, some
    which may be large. A watch may be necessary later this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...The airmass continues to recover in the wake of earlier
    convection with temperatures warming into the 70Fs in the presence
    of surface dewpoints in the low-to-mid 60Fs. With midlevel lapse
    rates on the order of 8 C/km atop this low-level airmass, most
    unstable CAPE should increase up to 2500 J/kg by late afternoon.=20

    Thunderstorms will develop/intensify this afternoon as a combination
    of mixing out from below and large scale ascent associated with the
    left exit region of an upper-level jet to the north-northwest of the
    area work together to overcome/weaken the 850-700 millibar warm
    layer noted in forecast soundings.

    Long hodographs and steep midlevel lapse rates will favor hail with
    any sustained, intense thunderstorm. Despite the long hodographs, effective-layer shear will be marginal for supporting mid-level
    rotation that could act to augment updraft intensity and the
    resulting hail potential. The better effective-layer shear will be
    across the middle-to-eastern portions of the MD area, and portions
    of this area will be monitored for the potential of severe hail
    occurring. If it becomes apparent that thunderstorms are/will be
    able to tap into this environment, and that the coverage will be
    more than one or two storms, a severe thunderstorm watch may become
    necessary.

    ..Marsh/Guyer.. 09/14/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Cix7nYyN28IhcYUXrTtS1qzirwdBcqcpM08Lkd4-LGNCFI0yRRnvlXOVWGHWKezO0ccU8P-U= j23AXNGz6Z53QkjQzE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 39110172 40480175 41900071 42039926 42269644 41269586
    40199631 39449729 38749962 38750083 39110172=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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